Alt-1922: Home Stretch!

 

For starters, The AL won the All-Star Game 4-1 on the strength of a Babe Ruth home run. 

When last we left things, the Yankees were 7 1/2 games back, in third place just behind Newark. The Red Sox, who had gone 20-7 over the previous month, looked like they were cruising to an easy pennant. The defending AL champion Yankees had just gone 14-13 over that same stretch and seemed to be slogging their way to a 2nd place finish if they were lucky, but they were closer to 7th place than 1st.

At the start of play today, 1 September 2022, they are only 1 1/2 games behind Boston and much closer to the Sox than the now-3rd-place Spiders. In theory I should be happy about this, and in practice I am, but I nevertheless can't feel a bit disappointed--as it turns out this has been (or at least felt) less like the Yankees catching fire and the Red Sox coming back to Earth vs. the Yankees playing a bit better and the Red Sox collapsing.

Since 9 July, the Yankees have gone 28-18, a .609 pace that translates to 99 wins over a full season. That's good but far short of what I was speculating might be necessary at the end of the last post. Boston has gone 21-23 over that stretch, though. Cleveland, meanwhile, has gone 29-15, including a 12-game winning streak that's landed them 4 1/2 games out and in third place at this writing. The time since the ASG adds up to over a quarter of the season, so this is no mere blip. The frustration here is that the Yankees had actually caught the Red Sox and have spent a couple of days in first place (by 1/2 game) before dropping back, and could just as easily be up by 2-3 games at this point--they're 5 games off of their Pythag pace. 

Just a quick note about the Yankees' farm teams--the Maple Leafs are also sitting in 2nd place, a game behind Rochester. The Pelicans are in 8th place, per usual, but have played at a .540 pace in the past two months. I did something of a house cleaning for New Orleans rather than letting the AI do its thing, and since then the Pels have been much improved. 

The Yankees led the league in OPS in both July and August, though this was no change from their May-June slump. The pitching did turn around, though--the Yankees gave up 5.4 runs per game in May+June, which dropped to 4.05 in July + August. It's not completely obvious to me what drove that, though it's likely to have been an addition by subtraction thing of getting Alexander out of the starting rotation and really just doing mop-up work until he (hopefully) got himself sorted. I've been using Vance a lot more, driven by his ratings starting to come way up. Faber turned a slow decline into a slow improvement, and Luque has been pretty steady. Ruether and Pennock took Rixey and Alexander's rotation spots and Ruether in particular has pitched well. 

So, we'll see how the final month of Alt-1922 plays out. Rosters expand in about a week, I'm not totally sure who to bring up. If Toronto is still in the hunt for the IL pennant I probably won't bring up anyone yet...

All-Star Break, Alt-1922

It's July 9th, 1922. The All-Star teams have just been announced, with the game scheduled for the 11th at Forbes Field in Pittsburgh. Three Yankees have been selected for the starting nine--Louis Santop, Harry Heilmann, and Ty Cobb. Riggs Stephenson, the 1921 AL Rookie of the Year, will be making the start at second base, Pete Kilduff of the Athletics ran away with the voting for AL shortstop, and the other three position players are all from the Red Sox: Larry Gardner, Tris Speaker, and of course Babe Ruth. Bill Force of the Spiders will be making the start for the AL.  Eight teams have contributed to the 18-man All-Star roster, with the Browns and White Sox unrepresented.  

Rogers Hornsby had the most votes on NL ballots. He's joined by two Giants, two Robins, and two members of the Buffalo Blues (including the shockingly bearded rookie phenom Lou Gehrig). Jimmy Johnston of the Phillies and Heavy Johnson of the Rustlers round out the NL starting nine. Nobody from the Reds or Orioles is on the team. 

The AL leads the series 3 games to 2, with each league undefeated in its home park. That would seem to point to the NL having the advantage, in theory. 

Meanwhile, despite having three All-Stars, the Yankees are in a pretty deep hole. At this writing, with their game finished but the other MLB games yet to occur, they find themselves in 3rd place-- 8 games behind Boston and a game behind Newark. They followed up their terrible 13-16 May with a good-but-not-amazing June (15-11) and are an uninspiring 3-5 in July. They're on a 90-win pace, which could end up putting them 10 or more games back at the end of the season.  The Red Sox, meanwhile, ripped off a 12-game winning streak in June to put themselves very much in the AL driver's seat. 

At first blush, the problem seems to be the pitching. The team sits atop most batting categories, per usual. However, it's down in 8th or 9th place in a lot of the pitching categories including ERA, opponent's batting average, and (shockingly!) home runs allowed.  This last one is particularly dismaying since the Yankees hit so many home runs there wouldn't seem to be that many left for the other teams to hit. 

I think some of this is a park effect, though. The Yankees are only 3rd in OPS in road games and only 6th in OBP. Meanwhile, they're 4th in road ERA and OPS against. So, not terrible?  Meanwhile, they're dead last in home ERA and 9th in OPS against. Nevertheless, the Yanks are a very good 27-13 at home and a really not good 22-26 on the road. 

Looking at individual players, there are a few folks who I think would be drawing the ire of the fans. Most obvious is Pete Alexander, who is looking like he might finish below replacement level and has been relegated to mop-up duty. Meanwhile, the players the Yankees traded to the Phillies for him are doing just fine: Hank Robinson is on track for a 20-win season and Jesse Barnes is doing a perfectly credible league-average job. The pitching staff as a whole is suffering, too--only George Mogridge has an ERA+ higher than 100 (and he's only at 104). Faber's looking at a 4-WAR season, but this has not been a good season for the staff.

Among the batters, Cobb has the most obvious drop off, though that's because he hit an insane and historic .428 in 1921. He still is projecting to 6+ WAR. Heilmann's WAR is projected to be 7.6, which is even better than 1921 when he also hit over .400. Peckinpaugh is also projected at this point to have a better 1922 than 1921. The biggest real drop is Eddie Collins, who's spent a lot of time on the IL. There are some other small drops among the hitters, but this seems to be on the pitchers.

Once the All-Star break is over, there will be about 74 games left. Winning 2/3 of them will get the Yankees to 98 wins, which seems unlikely to be enough without the Red Sox cooperating. Winning 3/4 would get the Yankees to about 104 wins, which could be enough but might not be. We'll have to see if I can get the Yankees going in the second half or if it'll be an October 1922 spent listening to baseball on the wireless.

Alt-1922 at the start of June

 

It's the start of play on 1 June 1922. The Yankees have played 54 games, placing them at the one-third mark of the season, and they find themselves 31-23, tied for 2nd place with the surprising Washington Senators and a game behind the not-surprising Boston Red Sox. I suspect this would be considered a bit of a dismaying season by Yankee fans, though--after a very hot 18-7 start to the year, they went 13-16 in May. I can't honestly remember the last time they were that far under .500 for a full month. It feels like they really earned that bad month, too--as is typically the case when they hit a rough patch, it was the pitching that's been letting down the Yankees. Red Faber has lost two games where he had a 4-run lead in the 9th. Grover Cleveland Alexander, the big addition of the off-season, has been a bust so far and is relegated to the bullpen. There've also been some injuries, with Peckinpaugh out for a while and Eddie Collins spending a long time on the IL (he's still there). But Dobie Moore seems to be doing fine enough. Charleston is a very streaky player, whether or not that's actual or just how it feels, and he hit a very cold streak.  Looking at the statistics, the Yanks are scoring nearly a run per game more than the average AL team, and are giving up about the league average of runs per game. On the whole, the team isn't in terrible shape, and it's not like they can't win the pennant without catching fire on the way, but fans would be excused for not seeing the juggernauts that played in 1918, 1920, and 1921. 

Over in the NL, the Robins have been leading the whole way, with the Giants more or less in 2nd place the whole time. The Robins built a huge lead but have been coming back to the pack of late. Lou Gehrig is basically a shoo-in for RoY if he doesn't get hurt (in this universe, who knows?), but Buffalo is deep in last place. 

As for the farm teams, Toronto is sitting atop a bit of a scrum that's 3-4 games behind league leaders Rochester. They're also playing 4 games below their Pythag projection while Rochester is 2 games better. Toronto is fine, especially given their function as the AAA club.  New Orleans, per usual practice, is in 8th place. Maybe they'll reach .500 one of these days?

Alt-1922 Preview

The 1922 season opener is nigh, and the Yankees were far below .500 during Spring Training. They pulled off one big trade, sending Hank Robinson and Jesse Barnes, neither of whom were getting many innings for the Yanks, to the Phillies in exchange for Grover Cleveland Alexander. Robinson and Barnes made the list of anticipated best pitchers in 1922, as did Frank Allen, who we shipped off at the trade deadline in 1921. Alexander did not make the list. 

Nevertheless, the algorithm thinks that the Yankees are heading for their third consecutive pennant, finishing 2 games ahead of Boston with the Packers again holding down third place. The algorithm thinks it'll be an overall great year for baseball in the Big Apple, actually, predicting a Subway Series against the Giants, with the Robins challenging them for the NL pennant.  The Cinderella Athletics and the World Champion Rustlers both drop back to .500 or so.  I'll post the predictions just below.

I didn't manage (most of) the Spring Training games, though I did watch them all. The team was pretty out of sync, it seemed--the pitching was bad and often the hitting was, too.  On the other hand, the computer made lots of decisions I wouldn't have. And really, it was Spring Training so who cares? Nobody got hurt and presumably everyone got enough at-bats and innings to do OK as the season begins. The roster struggle was real, and I ended up dropping Rube Benton when he refused to be sent down (which, fine) but also sending down Goose Goslin because I didn't want to potentially lose Rube Curry if he wasn't on a major-league roster. I don't particularly have a lot of at-bats ready for Goslin anyhow. I could have sent down Dutch Ruether, but I think I'd rather have him on the big-league roster, too. We'll just have to see how it all goes.

Following up a few posts from Alt-1921 with the remaining real-life Black Sox etc.:

• Chick Gandil is the 2nd-string 1B with the Portland Beavers, the Cubs' AAA farm team
• Eddie Cicotte is 37 years old and a free agent, having been released by the Red Sox after a league-average 1921. This could be the end of the road for him.
• Happy Felsch's game slipped a notch in 1921 from his excellent 1918-1920, but he remains the starting CF and biggest star (and highest-payed player) on the White Sox.
• Joe Jackson missed 6 weeks with a broken rib and only played in 109 games for the Spiders as a result, but he did hit .379 with 21 triples (!). He's got a good shot at 1000 career RBI by the end of the season if he stays healthy, though 2500 hits will be a 1923 milestone at the earliest. Jackson turns 33 during the season and could certainly play until the late 1920s in theory...
• Fred McMullin was unemployed for most of 1921, but signed with Omaha in September where he went 5-15, and then became a free agent again at the end of the season. He is unemployed as Alt-1922 begins.
• Swede Risberg was a free agent for all of 1921, then signed with the New Haven Ravens of the (independent) American Association. He is their backup 2B.
• Buck Weaver: Still retired.
• Lefty Williams had a great 1921, leading the NL in wins (24) and Ks (110), making the All-Star team and finishing 3rd in Cy Young voting. He's hoping to lead the Robins past the Giants (see above) to the pennant.
• Joe Gedeon had a terrible 1921 for the Browns, rather below Replacement Level. He remains, as their backup 2B. 
• Hal Chase has retired after a mostly-inactive 1921 (he had 9 AB for Portland). He doesn't have much of a Hall of Fame case.  He still clings to a few all-time career records for the Buffalo Blues (including hits and total bases) but Austin McHenry will as likely as not pass him in all of those categories in 1922.
• Heinie Zimmerman had his 3rd consecutive season batting below .230 for the White Sox but remains their best option at 3B and their starter (at least vs. RHP) as Alt-1922 starts. 

Your Alt-1921 Champions: The Boston Rustlers

 I thought it would take a miracle, but in the end it just took some of the Yankees' worst traits showing up at some of the worst times. Red Faber went a historically-bad 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA, the Yankees made 3 errors in a crazy Game 1, were shut out for 20 consecutive innings, fought back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 at home...and then made 4 more errors in Game 7 to lose the series. Tillie Walker hit two home runs in Game 1 and another in Game 7 to be named Series MVP. Faber imploded in Game 1 but pitched well in Game 4 to earn the Game 7 start. But in the end, the vaunted Yankees offense couldn't do enough to dig out of the messes the pitchers put the team into in Games 1 and 7, and the pitchers couldn't pitch well enough to make up for the hitters' cold bats in Games 3 and 4. 

Credit to Boston, who did what they had to do. Art Nehf only started one game, but pitched some relief innings and ended up with an ERA of 0.00. The Yankees' pitchers other than Faber did their jobs: Dolf Luque was 2-0 with 18 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, Hendrix was 1-0 with 9 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, Rixey had an ERA of 1.12 in 8 innings (but lost the game), Rogan had an ERA of 2.25 in 8 innings. 

Offensively, Walker was the star, with an OPS+ of 249 and 11 RBI with a .385 AVG. Grimes also hit well for the Rustlers. But other than Santop, who was something of a washout, the Yankees offense did OK. The history books might point to the Yankees' manager (that'd be me) being too sentimental/unthinking in continuing to hand the ball to Faber, but things just kept getting out of hand too quickly. In Game 1, I pulled him before the 1st inning was over, and between Caldwell keeping the fire burning and a bunch of errors, the Yankees could never quite catch up. In Game 7, a bunch of unearned runs again made the difference.

So, what does all this mean for 1922? The Yankees may or may not be considered a dynasty at this point--they've won 3 of 4 pennants but only one World Series. Faber's 1922 in real life was really good, I imagine the rotation will be Faber, Rixey, Luque, and...Rogan? Vance?  There aren't a whole lot of open roster spots on the team. 1922 was Baker's last real-life year, which may or may not be true here. Peckinpaugh was good defensively in real-life 1922 but not necessarily good otherwise. The Yankees don't have a ton of great prospects working their way up, but the Maple Leafs did win the AAA championship.

I guess we'll see how it goes! 

Alt-1921 World Series Preview

 

It will be your defending champion New York Yankees facing the team of the teens, the Boston Rustlers, in the Alt-1921 World Series. For all the angst that gripped the Yankees fanbase and the sensationalism of the sports press, the Yankees won 55 of their last 81 games and ended up winning the pennant by a substantial margin.  The surprising Athletics did finish in 2nd, 9 games back, with the Red Sox limping home in 3rd. I'm not intending to make this a 1921 recap post, so I won't dwell on this stuff now.

The Rustlers' road to the pennant was somewhat less inevitable feeling--they played well in every month but May (when they went 14-13), and while they were at a "mere" 50-31 in their last 81 games, they needed a terrible (11-15) September from Brooklyn to take command of the race. They did steadily build their lead over the last few weeks, and ended up 4 games ahead of the Robins.

This Rustlers team has very few of the key contributors from the 1914-1916 dynasty--only Rabbit Maranville remains from the 1914 OG Miracle team, and he seems to be entering his post-prime years (his OPS+ was the worst since he became a regular in 1913). Tillie Walker was one of the main hitting stars for the largely punchless 1916 champions, and he remains their RBI leader and cleanup hitter at age 34. The Rustlers have always been built on their pitching, though, and the most important holdover is Art Nehf. Nehf won the 1917 and 1920 Cy Young Awards, and again led the NL in ERA this year. Importantly, as we'll get to shortly, he's also a lefty. Nehf was traded to the Giants in 1920 in real life, but here he remains in Boston. 

As noted, the Rustlers are built on pitching. They led the NL in ERA (overall, starters' and bullpen), had the fewest runs allowed (as you'd expect), the fewest walks, lowest opponents' batting average, and also had the highest defensive efficiency and zone rating. What they didn't do was strike people out--they finished dead last in the NL in that category. What they also can't particularly do is hit--they were 9th in the NL in OBP, 7th in SLG (and so, 8th in OPS). They're 3rd in WAR, but I think that's heavily inflated by their defensive work. They're 8th in runs scored, last in walks, tied for 8th in home runs. They're also 8th in stolen bases, perhaps because they don't get on base very much?

The pinstripes are, by comparison, not only much more capable with the bat but also more balanced. They led the AL in every important batting category save walks (2nd), baserunning (2nd), and stolen bases (last). They also struck out more than any other team, but I'll take that. Pitching-wise the Yanks were middle of the pack. They were 5th in ERA and starters' ERA, 3rd in bullpen ERA. They were great at preventing walks, but also didn't strike out many people. They were again mid-pack in defense. 

The Yankees are a _very_ left-handed team, and the usual/best lineup has 6 lefties out of the 8 position players. The bench is a bit more balanced, with Moore and Rogan providing some right-handed pinch-hitting possibilities, but Terry, Pipp, and Goslin would probably be starting players on any other team in the majors rather than serving as left-handed pinch-hitters and defensive subs.  In any case, the Yankees struggled, relatively speaking, against lefties with only a .564 winning percentage (.666 vs. righties).  Interestingly, MLB as a whole only won at a .465 pace vs. lefties compared to .509 vs. righties.  The reason this is important is twofold--the Rustlers' only lefty is Nehf (though maybe they'd be liberal with using him in relief), and this would seem to be a big advantage to the Yankees' big bats. Second, they only have one lefty in their lineup (Alejandro Oms, who might also be their best hitter).  This might keep some of the Yankees' left-handed relievers from seeing much action in the series, but there really aren't many of them--since Pennock is hurt, it's really only Mogridge and Robinson. So, the Yankees can potentially be looking to use Hendrix, Rogan, Caldwell, etc. to get and be able to keep the platoon advantage in big situations. The Rustlers hit well against lefties (.300, with a better than league average OPS!), so having them not face lefties unless strictly necessary seems like a fine plan (even if Eppa Rixey might not approve). 

As far as individual players--in past Yankees-Cardinals matchups I'd noted that Rogers Hornsby was probably the best player on the field, maybe followed by a few Yankees. Here, it just plain looks like the Yankees dominate the discussion. Batting-wise, there is no question--the top 7 non-pitchers by WAR are all Yankees, in other words every member of the entire Yankees starting lineup (save Peckinpaugh!) has a  higher WAR than any member of the Rustlers' starting lineup. After the top 4 Rustlers by WAR comes Charlie Blackwell, then two more Rustlers (including their backup catcher), then Peckinpaugh and two more Yankees' bench/backup players (Rogan and Moore). Twelve players on the two teams had 500+ plate appearances, the 7 Yankees on the list all had higher OPS+ than any of the Rustlers. 

Turning to the pitchers is admittedly murkier. The relationship between pitching WAR and pitching success in OOTP is a bit hard to get my head around, but the top two in that category are Yankees (Rixey and Faber), and while Donahue of the Rustlers is in third he's also injured and out for the season. The next four players on the list are all from Boston. The ERA+ situation for qualifying pitchers favors Boston more, but isn't quite as lopsided as the OPS+ situation. 

OK, so. Prediction. I've seen a lot of things go not-at-all how I'd expect. This is a great Yankees team, if not quite as good as last year's. I've seen this team simply unable to beat bad teams, and shut out unexpectedly. But I feel like the Rustlers will need another miracle. I'll spot them two games that Art Nehf wins, but I think that may be giving them too much credit.  Nevertheless, Yankees in 6. 

EDIT: I realized something I should do is look at the park factors. Allston Grounds, the Rustlers' home park, severely depresses offense. The Polo Grounds severely increases home runs. NL teams slashed at .281/.333/.389/.722 on the road, and Boston did better than average at .293/.340/.403/.743. AL teams on the road hit .284/.336/.400/.736, with the Yankees at a tremendous .309/.363/.453/.815. Pitching-wise, AL road teams had an OPS of .761 and an ERA of 4.23, the Yankees kept opponents to an OPS of. 733 and an ERA of 4.03. For the NL, the matching numbers are .754 and 4.08, with the Rustlers pitching at .729 and 3.60. The road batting OPS for the teams ranks 3rd (!) for Boston and 1st for New York in their leagues, the road pitching OPS ranks 4th for Boston and 3rd for the Yankees. For individuals, Charleston drops down to be pretty average on the road but 6 of the top 7 qualifiers remain Yankees when ranked by OPS+, while only three qualifying pitchers have road ERA+ higher than 100 (Nehf, Schmutz, and Hendrix). Meanwhile, Luque and Barnes have been great on the road, while Blackwell and to some extent Moore also struggled there.

Alt-1921: Forty games (or so) to go!

 

Since we last checked in, the Yankees' relentless pursuit of Philadelphia has turned into the Athletics' dogged attempt to stay close to New York. The Yankees went 8-1 in the period between my last post and the All-Star Game, including a 2-game sweep of Boston and a series win against the Athletics just before the All-Star Break. That series win left Philadelphia and New York tied, and the All-Star Game found a shorthanded AL deliver a walk-off win to the sellout crowd at Griffith Stadium, as Ty Cobb doubled in Newark's Charlie Hollocher. 

The Bombers have been as far as 1.5 games behind the Athletics since then, but have mostly been in first place (as much as 3 games, currently 2). They sit at 77-44 currently, so have had a 28-12 stretch. That's .700, which is what they were able to do across all of 1920. So, maybe this is sustainable? On the other hand, they've lost to some bad teams when they have lost in this stretch: For instance, they're only 2-3 against the last-place Browns. One quick thought I'll stick here--I think I'm getting penalized (inadvertently) by picking up Negro League players like Blackwell, Moore, and Brown early (and Cannonball Redding, back in the day):  Their stats are treated as AAA or AA stats, so they're not as good players as they should be. Charleston and Rogan are also not as good as they should be, but are so good that they're still standouts. The Negro League players coming into Alt-1921 have their stats treated as MLB, so they're getting boosts relative to the others. That'll eventually even out as more and more new Black ballplayers show up and older ones retire, but for now I think it gives a lot of other teams a boost relative to the Yankees...

The big off-field news is probably the Frank Allen for Dolph Luque trade pulled off at the deadline. I'd had my eye on Luque earlier in the season, but he was dealt to the Spiders before I had decided what to do (and that, in turn, cemented my decision to trade for Rixey).  Allen was exceedingly shaky as our closer, there was no reasonable way to have him supplant someone in the rotation, and while he was only 32 his actual career had ended years earlier so I felt he was on borrowed time (or past it). I don't think missing Allen will mean missing the pennant, and I think having Luque will make 1922-1924 much better for the Yanks. I still definitely have a pitching logjam, which was not necessarily improved by a different trade I swung with Boston to get Mogridge back. 

I'll stick the standings below, I'll note that in the NL the Robins have dropped out of first place (which they've held much of the year) and the Rustlers have stepped up. They're both pretty close, so the race certainly isn't over yet. The Giants are in 3rd, but are are enough back that they're probably not going to be a factor.

Stats-wise, it's another battle between Cobb and Heilmann for the batting title, both have been near .410-.415 for a while.  Cobb was hurt and while he could have played I kept him out of the lineup just in case. He should get enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, barring another injury. Heilmann has been a workhorse and is on pace for 150 or so RBI.  Nevertheless, I expect Ruth to win the MVP again and to set the home run record again.  I'm not sure he'll reach 50, though. He also might not hold the record at the end of the year--Torriente is only two behind him...

Halfway through Alt-1921

 

A long weekend and an itch to play saw me sprint through the second quarter of the season pretty quickly. My pace was probably helped, ironically enough, by the frustrating nature of the first part of that second quarter. When we last checked in, the Yankees were 25-16 (a .610 pace) and 3.5 games behind the A's. They are currently 49-32 (.604) and 3 games back. So, it may seem like they more or less have been treading water, but it is not so!  They hit a very rough patch immediately after the last post which saw them in 4th place 8 games back after 49 games (a 2-6 stretch that left them at 27-22) and after 58 games they were 32-26 and in 4th place, 7.5 games back.  They've gone 17-6 since then to put them more or less where they were last time.  

The way they were losing those games during that 17-game stretch was a maddening reminder of Alt-1916. The pitchers would consistently give up 2-3 runs in the first inning, the Yankees would (often) battle back because their offense can't be held down, and then the relievers would blow it in the 8th or 9th. Sometimes, for variety, the starters would cough it up instead if I decided I couldn't trust the relievers. Thurston's rotation spot went to Dave Brown (who was lighting up Toronto), but Brown stunk and so the spot went to Jesse Barnes. Brown also stunk as a reliever, as did basically all relievers (except Caldwell, who I didn't use much for various reasons).  Brown is back in Toronto (and again lighting it up, as is Thurston).

Whether the pitching staff was just going through a collective slump or I've sorted out who's best in what role, I don't know. Offense is up all over the majors, and 3-4 run innings have been unfolding quickly rather than as a series of station-to-station events. Hendrix has been the hero of the staff, with Faber and Rixey dependable-ish. I may have been focusing too much on WAR for pitchers rather than things like ERA+, but the offense has often been able to save the day. 

In-universe, I've imagined what the reaction to all of this would have been. Gnashing of teeth among Yankees press and fans, presumably. But in the last few weeks, I can imagine the vibe might have changed. It is easy to think that A's fans and the Philadelphia press is nervously watching the Yankees closing ground on them inexorably. The Athletics have won 8 more games than their Pythag would suggest, while the Yankees have won two fewer. Whether that's seen as evidence of a Cinderella season for the A's or  that they're playing over their head may be a matter of optimism vs. pessimism for a fan...

The Athletics probably deserve their own post, but it won't be today. :)

Alt-1921 at the quarter pole

We're 41 games into the Alt-1921 season, and the Yankees are playing at a 100-win pace. Whether that will be good enough to win the pennant, however, is very much an open question. The Yanks are currently sitting in second place, 3.5 games behind the surprising Philadelphia Athletics. Kansas City and Cleveland are pretty close behind New York.  Boston, expected to take the pennant by the AI, languishes in 7th place 10 games back and 4 games under .500.

While they are not in first place at the moment, I certainly wouldn't say the Yankees' title defense has gone "badly". The team's offense is humming along pretty well, and they're 1st in runs scored, hits, and WAR. They're 2nd in home runs because Babe Ruth is on a different and reasonably well-hitting team. Even the pitching, while difficult to watch at times, has ultimately been mid-pack. However, the relief pitching, particularly erstwhile closer/stopper Frank Allen, has been atrocious. The bullpen ERA is 8th in the league, and Allen has had 4 blown saves. Allen is way past his sell-by date, and I've been very tempted to unload him (though the algorithm still loves him).  The flip side of this is that I can't really tell what Philadelphia is doing right--they're mid-pack in most offensive and defensive categories, though their pitching is somewhat better than ours. They are 5 games over their Pythagorean record, so maybe the answer is they're just getting lucky--if everyone were playing at their Pythag, the Yankees would be in first place (if only just). 

I'll quickly turn to the other leagues--Our roommates (the New York Baseball Giants) are leading the NL by a game, after the Rustlers rocketed out to a very fast start. They now sit a game back, with Brooklyn just behind. The Phillies are 2.5 games back, so New York is not the only city dreaming of a Subway Series. The Maple Leafs are in a dogfight with Worcester in the International League, and are currently one game behind the Boosters. Vernon has a healthy lead for this time of year in the PCL. Tulsa and Tri-Cities are tied atop the Western League, with Milwaukee and Wichita just behind. San Antonio leads the Southern League by a half-game over Birmingham, with the 9th-place Crackers only 4 back.  New Orleans has been flirting with but never quite reaching .500 all season. And finally, New Haven leads the new American Association by a game over Hartford and Allentown. 

I'll hold comments about injuries and individual performances until the next post, but I'd be remiss if I didn't note that Harry Heilmann has been absolutely in the zone--he's hitting about .470 after 41 games and has only just had a 36-game hitting streak snapped. He's on pace for 300 hits and 190 RBI. Even if/when regression happens, it'll be (in theory) to a .400 pace since he actually hit .400 or so in reality and hit .392 in Alt-1920...

Alt-1921 Preview

 

It's Opening Day for Alt-1921, so it's time for a quick look forward!  In real 1921, the Yankees won their first pennant and were bested by the New York Giants in the World Series. Here, the Yankees are looking to win their third pennant in four years and repeat as champions, while the Giants haven't been to a World Series since 1913 (I suppose Alt-1913 = 1913 as far as the algorithm is concerned, though there are obviously huge differences in all sorts of things since baseball was integrated in 1915 if not earlier, which is a whole other philosophical/world building rabbit hole).

The algorithm thinks the Yankees will follow up their 115-win season with a 103-win campaign, with them finishing in 2nd place, 5 games behind Boston. 

It sees Heilmann flirting with .400 again, but Ruth with another gargantuan year and presumably an MVP. It sees Eddie Cicotte as a 31-game winner, with Dutch Leonard close behind with 27. No Yankees make the list of predicted best pitchers, though the best hitters list is littered with them.

Over in the NL, it's the Brooklyn Robins who are predicted to come in first place with 97 wins, comfortably ahead of the apparently-resurgent Boston Rustlers. The Orioles are predicted to come in a strong 3rd. The Robins are expected to be led by Zach Wheat and Casey Stengel at the plate, and Burleigh Grimes and Lefty Williams at the bat. The algorithm is bearish on the Cardinals, penciling them in at 85-77. 

Of course, who knows what all this means. Rogers Hornsby is notably absent from the list of predicted top hitters, presumably because he's currently on the IL and not expected to return until May. If he has another MVP-style season, he could get the Cardinals much closer to the top. Similarly, Peckinpaugh is on the IL for the Yankees, and if one added his usual WAR, they might catch Boston.  I guess we'll see.

I discussed where the Black Sox will be starting their Alt-1921, so here's a look at where the top performers of real-1921 by b-WAR will be on Alt-1921 Opening Day:

• Babe Ruth: was famously on the Yankees in real life, but famously remains in Boston here.
• Red Faber: White Sox mainstay is the ace of the Yankees' staff.
• Hornsby: on the Cardinals, as in real life.
• Urban Shocker: on the Browns in reality, is currently on the Athletics (and is basically their ace).
• Bullet Rogan: in segregated reality he was on the KC Monarchs, but he's on the World Champion New York Yankees in Alt-1921. 
• Burleigh Grimes: In real life he didn't get to Brooklyn until 1918, but here he joined the Robins in Alt-1916.

• Carl Mays, one year removed from killing Ray Chapman with a beanball, was on the real-life Yankees. In Alt-1921 he's in Cincinnati as a middle reliever.
• Beauty Bancroft, the NL MVP in Alt-1916 and runner up in each of the following two years, is on the Phillies here. In real life he was traded from the Phillies to the Giants during 1920.
• Sad Sam Jones won 23 games for the real-life Red Sox in 1921, but finds himself sad indeed on the free agent list without a team here in Alt-1921. Cleveland just dropped him today.
• Finally, Jose Leblanc was on the Cuban Stars West in real 1921, Alt-1921 finds him a middle reliever for the White Sox.

Let's see how it goes!

Where are they now: The Black Sox in Alt-1921

 

The baseball world in Alt-1921 did not suffer the Black Sox scandal, and principals and principles remain unshaken. The infamous subjects of Eight Men Out received their bans near the end of the 1920 season, so as Spring Training here in 1921 gets underway I thought I'd see what they're up to in this universe...

• Chick Gandil never made his way off of the Senators, but after a decent 1914-1915 his ability slowly decreased for them, with his playing time following suit. He signed a minor league contract with Newark to start the 1920 season and hit over .400 for their AAA Vancouver club, but had very limited time with the big club. He's been invited to Spring Training for the Peppers, but really isn't anywhere on their depth charts.

• Eddie Cicotte was the biggest name dealt at the 1920 trade deadline, going from the White Sox to the Red Sox. He went 15-2 after the trade to Boston with an ERA under 2, and was the unanimous choice for the 1920 AL Cy Young award. He is arguably the ace of the Red Sox' staff (Dutch Leonard having the only other claim) and seems like he might have a few years left before a comfortable retirement and a reasonable shot at the Hall of Fame.
• Happy Felsch has been the brightest star on the White Sox since their back-to-back pennant winners. He was Rookie of the Year in 1915 and an All-Star in 1919 and is in his prime. He remains on the White Sox and will likely be their leader in WAR.

• Shoeless Joe Jackson never left Cleveland and at age 31 has already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. He led the AL in batting in 1918 and in slugging and OPS in 1917-1918 (with Babe Ruth probably making those the last years he does it). He was the AL MVP in 1916 and runner up in 1917, and was All-Star Game MVP in 1919. He is the career leader in batting average at .366 (one point ahead of Ty Cobb) and is also the career leader in slugging and OPS, though Babe Ruth is likely to debut atop those lists when he reached 3000 PA late in 1921.  Jackson is clearly one of the all-time greats and has a non-zero chance to reach 4000 hits. 
• Fred McMullin broke in with the Buffalo Blues and served as their regular third baseman in 1917. After splitting 1919 between Buffalo and their AAA club in Los Angeles and playing sparingly in Charlotte last year, McMullin finds himself a free agent at the moment.

• Swede Risberg had a decent 1917 as a utility infielder for the Cubs, and has spent the last 3 seasons in the Reds organization but mostly down in AAA Columbus rather than at the MLB level. He's currently second on the Reds' depth chart at first base and the main choice as a defensive replacement there.
• Buck Weaver spent 9 years in the majors, all with the Chicago White Sox and all as a regular. He had a great 1916 as the regular shortstop and earned an All-Star berth for it. He moved to third base for 1917-1918 before going back to shortstop in 1919 and finally first base in 1920. After leading the majors in at-bats and plate appearances in 1920 while hitting a creditable .296, Weaver retired at age 30 in a bit of a surprise move to become a missionary.

• Lefty Williams has been on the Brooklyn Robins since they signed him as a free agent in 1915. While he's led the NL in losses in 1919 and 1920, he also led the NL in strikeouts in 1920 with 117 and was 3rd in wins in 1917. He finished 5th in the NL Cy Young race in 1920 and 8th in 1919. Most strikingly, he's thrown 8 2-hitters, one 1-hitter, and one perfect game. Williams is only a year or so into his prime, and might find himself seen as one of the dominant pitchers of this era.
• Joe Gedeon is on the Browns, doing what he was doing in real life though he took a slightly different path to get here. He's the Browns' top second baseman. 

And as bonus WATN:

• Hal Chase was on the Buffalo Blues in real life, and when the Federal League went belly up he went first to Cincinnati and then the Giants before his career ended in 1919 and nobody was willing to take the infamous game fixer in the wake of the Black Sox scandal. In this universe the Buffalo franchise lived on and he remained the regular first baseman through 1919, with age catching up to him in 1920. He was the league leader in doubles in 1916, and is the Blues franchise leader in most of the counting stats (games, runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI...). He even is still the Yankees franchise leader in hits, though I expect Roger Peckinpaugh to pass him in April and the Harry Heilmann to pass Peckinpaugh before the All-Star Break...
• Heinie Zimmerman was traded from the Cubs to the Yankees during the 1917-1918 offseason in exchange for four players. Zimmerman sparked the Yankees to their first pennant, but got hurt in September and missed the World Series. The Yankees then flipped him to the White Sox in exchange for Eddie Collins. Zimmerman's 1919 and 1920 haven't been nearly as good as his 1917, and he is likely to start 1921 as the backup third baseman for Chicago.

Your 1920 World Champions

 

Well, it's been a couple of real-life months and it's also been a few game months, and I'm finally getting around to posting my World Series recap!  Long story short, after two games where the Cardinals just plain looked like they had the Yankees' number, a miracle finish to Game 3 spurred a New York win in 6 games. St. Louis led in every single game, lost four of them anyhow.

Game 1: After taking a quick 2-0 lead in the first, Faber immediately gave the runs back. St. Louis scored single runs in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th, and surprise starter Waite Hoyt kept the Yankees down. A rally in the 9th was too little too late and the Cardinals won 5-3.

Game 2: A pitching duel between Bill Doak and Claude Hendrix was knotted 1-1 at the end of regulation. Gilhooley came in to pinch hit for Hendrix in the 10th (to no avail), and reliever Slim Harriss gave up a single and a walkoff double. St. Louis took the game 2-1 and a 2-0 lead in the series.

Game 3: If the Yankees become an unbeatable dynasty in this game universe, this will be the game that will be seen as the beginning of it all. Frank Allen got the start in a bit of a surprise (I decided to go with what the algorithm was pushing, figuring it couldn't get worse) and had 7 pretty good innings!  Unfortunately, these games are 9 innings long, and Lee Meadows was pitching just as well.  With the score 2-2 in the top of the 8th, Allen gave up 5 hits and three runs. It could have been worse but Ty Cobb threw out Del Pratt at home. But with their backs against the wall down 5-2 and staring at a 3-0 deficit in the series, the Yankees finally did what they'd been doing all year in the 9th and the offense let loose. Plus, they got some luck.  Charleston singled, Collins walked, and then Heilmann (who was 4th in the league in GIDP) hit a sure double-play ball that Hornsby booted. After that the crowd started to believe. Santop singled, Cobb singled, and St. Louis brought in Al Schacht to relieve with the score now 5-4, the bases loaded and nobody out. Peckinpaugh grounded into a near-double play of his own, leading to the first out of the inning and leaving the bases loaded. Cy Williams then found his date with destiny, hitting a walkoff grand slam home run and rescuing the Yankees. With the 8-5 win, the Yankees were back in it.

Game 4: Dave Brown got the ball for the Yankees, vs. Bunny Hearn for St. Louis. Brown was pitching well, but New York faced a 2-0 deficit entering the bottom of the 7th when they again erupted for a very crooked number in a 5-run effort. Brown finished it off, the Yankees won 6-3, and tied up the series.

Game 5: The last game of the season at the Polo Grounds featured yet another late comeback from the Yankees. Ruether started for the Yankees and Hoyt for the Cardinals, with both earning passing grades as the 8th inning started with New York up 4-3. Ruether gave up a double to Hornsby and a walk to Meusel and gave way to Mogridge in relief, who immediately let Hornsby score on a single. Two batters later, Meyer singled to score Harris and the Cardinals had a lead. However, the lead was short-lived--Charlie Blackwell's bases-loaded triple gave New York the lead, and Frank Baker's sacrifice fly was followed by three singles and another sacrifice fly, and the 6-run inning more than offset a 9th-inning home run by George Carr. 

Game 6: The action moved to Sportsman's Park in St. Louis with the Yankees a game away from their first championship. Faber took the mound against Bill Doak amid some speculation about who might start a Game 7. The Cardinals again took a lead, but the Yankees erupted in the 4th for 5 runs (perhaps helped by a too-quick hook by the Cardinals manager and the very hittable Al Schacht coming in). Faber labored but the Yankees continued to tack on, with Charleston hitting a home run in the 7th and Wally Pipp (in as a defensive replacement) adding a home run of his own in the 9th. Given Pipp's popularity in New York but his diminished play time with the rise of Bill Terry and the outfield logjam, sentimental baseball fans across Gotham were delighted. With the 12-5 win, the Yankees were World Series champions.

Ty Cobb won the World Series MVP award, though I think my vote would have gone to Santop (as I predicted!). Both had 11 hits, leading all batters, though Cobb had 2 fewer at-bats and led in batting for everyone with more than 6 at-bats with .478. Peckinpaugh redeemed his awful 1918 series by slashing .381/.500/.619, with the latter leading all regulars in slugging while he also led all in OPS. Santop led all batters in Win Probability added with 0.44, with Cobb just behind him. Gene Robertson was probably the best Cardinals regular, slashing .350/.381/.500. Hornsby had a reasonably good series with a good OPS, but the key error in the Game 3 St. Louis meltdown may end up an unavoidable part of his legacy. If the Cardinals hadn't won in 1918 it might sting a lot more.

Bill Doak was clearly the best pitcher in the series, coming in 2nd in innings pitched with an ERA of 1.32. After his Game 2 masterpiece, he was victimized by his defense in Game 3, with two errors leading to 4 unearned runs in Game 6 and an early dismissal. Claude Hendrix had the best unblemished pitching performance, matching Doak in Game 2 for the 9 innings he was in. 

And so the Yankees' 1920 season ended more or less the way it went all year--with colossal hitting that sometimes disappeared supported by pitching that was usually good enough. And with that, my main goal for this game was completed--I won a championship with the Yankees earlier than they did in real life. But of course, I'm going to keep going. :)

1920 World Series Preview

 I've written a few draft posts since the last one, but ultimately have been finding a combination of Mastodon updates and just playing the game to be more fun than pausing to recap. Since we're on the brink of another Yankees-Cardinals World Series, though, I figured that's worth a post!

For a brief digression to the minors, though, Des Moines ran away with the Western League and then beat Lefty Grove and the Southern League champion Nashville Vols in 5 games. Columbus managed to hang on in a roller-coaster International League, with Toronto letting some very good chances slip away late in the season.  In the PCL, Oakland managed to be on top when the music stopped, and in an exciting series managed to become the AAA champions on a walk-off double that scored the tying and winning runs. 

I don't intend this post to be a full-season recap, so I'll just note that the Yankees had a historically good season, winning an AL-record 115 games and winning the pennant by 18 games over a pretty good Red Sox team. The Cardinals finished with 99 wins, pacing the NL by 13 games over Philadelphia. Both teams were good offensively, but there's really no comparison--St. Louis was 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and scored 0.5 runs per game more than the NL average, while the Yankees were 1st in the AL in runs scored and scored 1.6 runs per game more than the AL average. The Yankees hit .318 as a team with a team OPS of .846, a full .125 higher than the league average. The Cardinals hit a very good .290 with a team OPS of .727, 2nd in the league and "just" 0.33 greater than the league average. 

Pitching-wise, there's not the obvious advantage that the Cardinals had  (and that I tried to rationalize away) in 1918--the Cardinals allowed 3.9 RPG vs. an NL average of 4.2 RPG. The Yankees allowed 4.2 RPG vs. a league average of 4.4 RPG.  But maybe that needs to go one level deeper to make sure the Yankees pitchers didn't just look good because they didn't need to face Yankees hitters? In any case, the Yankees as a team were at or better than league average in most categories, as were the Cardinals.

Looking at individuals, it again seems like Rogers Hornsby is probably the best player on either team. He led the NL in batting (.387 vs. a league average of .274) among other things, and played a good enough shortstop to earn 9.9 WAR. I expect him to win the NL MVP, though Cristobal Torriente's monster year would get my vote. Whitey Witt finished second in batting and OPS, and led the league in runs scored. Irish Meusel was second in the league in isolated power and home runs, and led the league in RBI. 

But a variety of Yankees littered the offensive leaderboards, as you'd expect. Heilmann led the league in batting (.392 vs. a league average of .278) and Cobb was just behind at .388. Babe Ruth's historic season gave him first place in a lot of categories, but Yankees were just behind him in slugging and OPS (Louis Santop in 2nd, Cobb in 4th), runs scored (Charleston in 2nd, Collins in 4th, Cobb in 5th), isolated power (Santop in 2nd, Charleston in 4th), home runs (Santop, Charleston, and Heilmann in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th), etc. Even in WAR, while none of the Yankees matched Hornsby, Santop and Collins both earned over 8.0 WAR.

Both teams really only had one pitcher break into the leader boards. For the Cardinals it was Bill Doak, who led the NL in wins (25) and pitching WAR (6.6) and was only 1/3 of an inning off of leading in innings pitched. Lee Meadows finished 3rd in wins. But no Cardinals pitchers placed in the top five in ERA, opponents OPS, WHIP, or anything like that. The Yankees had a great year from Red Faber, who led the league in wins (27), was 2nd in shutouts (3), and 3rd in pitching WAR (6.4). Faber also finished 5th in ERA. Given the Yankees' record it's no surprise they took the top 3 places in winning pct. but Dave Brown ended up 4th in strikeouts and leading the league in K/9. If he'd managed to stay in the rotation all year he certainly would have led the league in strikeouts. Brown and Faber both placed in the top 5 of K/BB. 

With all that, I confess I don't know a lot about the Cardinals. They've got one trancendent hitter and (at least?) two great hitters, one ace pitcher, and I don't know what else. The Yankees have an exceedingly dangerous lineup at every position, and their own ace pitcher, and while the bullpen has felt very shaky it hasn't been bad statistically. Faber will clearly start Game 1, and I suppose it'll probably be Hendrix in Game 2 but might be Ruether or Brown. 

So, who am I picking?  Now that the Red Sox have ended the string of 5-game NL wins, I feel a little freer. :)  I really do think this Yankees team would be seen as historically good, not that that guarantees a series win. I'm going to go with the Yankees in 6--Faber and Doak split their head-to-head, and one of the other Yankees starters implodes, but the Yankees are just too good. I've got Santop as the MVP. Now let's see what happens!

All-Star Break, 1920

 It's July 12, 1920, and the All-Star Game is tomorrow (in both game time and, probably, in real time). time for a recap!

First, for the All-Star Game, which will be held in Brooklyn's Ebbets Field. As a reminder, the 1917 game was held at Shibe Park, the 1918 game at Allston Grounds, and the 1919 thriller was held at Comiskey Park. 

The voters picked three Yankees to start the game, which is fewer than the last few years and also might not fit the amazing first half they've had (about which, more below).  Stan Coveleski's election is not only the first time a KC Packer is in the starting lineup but the first time a KC Packer has even made the team. 

The team of 20 is actually shorthanded since both Sisler and Walter Johnson are injured. So I expect several players to play the entire game. It's also too bad that I can't intervene to add replacements for the injured players--the Spiders are the only AL team without a rep, and Joe Jackson would have been a fine replacement for Sisler. Besides the three starting Yankees, three more are on the roster.

Here are the NL starters. Lu Blue is the first Baltimore Oriole to be elected as an All-Star starter, you'd think he'd be happier about it. Between Coveleski, Hollocher, Youngs, and Blue, 4 players from the ex-Fed expansion teams were elected this year, after zero from any previous year. 

Here's the rest of the NL roster. Some very questionable choices among the pitching staff, but I suppose Buffalo may have stuffed the ballot boxes.

Looking at the batting leaders right now, it's clear that while Ruth would almost certainly be the biggest star in baseball, he would not be doing things as uniquely has he did in real life. He set the home run record in 1919 with 29 home runs, but Torriente wasn't so far behind at 25. Indeed, Torriente's number was the third-highest in a season. Torriente is actually on pace to hit 37 this season to Ruth's 36. Both would easily break Ruth's current record though both would also be well off Ruth's actual mark of 54. Santop and Charleston are also on pace to top 20 home runs this season. 

Turning to the pitching, things seem more or less typical? I've got less of a good feel for this. ERAs are up a quarter of a run in both leagues since 1919 and nearly a half a run since 1917. The counting stats are more or less what you'd expect for a half-season, save the complete games, which are rather high. 

Turning to the team stats and the standings, and admittedly I've buried the lede here, the Yankees have been absolutely obliterating the competition. They've won 8 in a row and have had completely unrelated 12-0 and 12-1 stretches. The algorithm thought they'd be unsuccessfully duking it out with Boston but other than a slightly rough patch in May it's really been all Yankees. They are tops in basically every important batting category (last in stolen bases, LOL) and are getting better pitching than I suppose the algorithm expected.  The Yankees are scoring 6 runs a game (7 in July) and allowing 4. They've got a very good chance to set the AL record for wins (112 by the 1915 White Sox) and a not-awful chance at a crazy 120-win season. I'll see if I can put a report card in a separate post, but it's hard to fault basically anyone.

The Yankees phenomenal success has obscured a very good first half by the Cardinals. They have a comfortable 7-game lead over the Phillies and Pirates, and just like the 1919 World Series was a rematch of 1917, it's looking like 1920 will be a rematch of 1918. Going back to the expansion teams, it also looks like there's a decent chance that 1920 will be the first year any of them finish the season at .500 or better. Right now Baltimore is one game over .500 and the Packers are 4 games under.  

I'll spend just a moment or two on the minors. I've been following the AAA leagues more than the AA, and the leagues with Yankees farm teams more than those without. So I've got a decent idea of the ebb and flow of the International League pennant race, and not as good a sense for the others. I also confess not to have been following the individual stats terribly closely even on the Maple Leafs.  And, of course, since the best players on a team tend to move up it's less clear how best to appreciate these races.

The Angels have been leading the PCL more or less all season, though both Vancouver and San Francisco (Red Sox) have never let them get too far ahead.  The International League had a very chaotic first month or so--Louisville had a Yankees-like stretch before falling hard. Scranton led for a while, now it's Columbus' turn. Indianapolis just won 11 in a row. Toronto has been hanging out 3-4 games back most of the season, though they did have a period in first place. I haven't messed with them much since the Yankees really don't have room for their best players anyhow. Bullet Rogan moved up when Bill Terry had a long injury, but Dobie Moore and (recently) Alan Russell went down. Lefty O'Doul was getting into a groove before going down for the rest of the season with a broken kneecap. Goose Goslin might replicate Terry's Triple Crown achievement. 

I suppose I've paid the least attention to the Western League, but it's been Des Moines and Omaha battling it out all season from what I do remember. Wichita, last year's champion, has been sputtering all year.  On the other hand, the 1919 Southern League champions, Birmingham, are doing well. They've been at or near the lead all season in a volatile league.  New Orleans have flirted with .500 but never gotten there. Their pitching has been pretty good, but basically any of their hitters worth anything are up in Toronto.  

OK, time to post this.