Saturday, March 04, 2023

1920 World Series Preview





 I've written a few draft posts since the last one, but ultimately have been finding a combination of Mastodon updates and just playing the game to be more fun than pausing to recap. Since we're on the brink of another Yankees-Cardinals World Series, though, I figured that's worth a post!

For a brief digression to the minors, though, Des Moines ran away with the Western League and then beat Lefty Grove and the Southern League champion Nashville Vols in 5 games. Columbus managed to hang on in a roller-coaster International League, with Toronto letting some very good chances slip away late in the season.  In the PCL, Oakland managed to be on top when the music stopped, and in an exciting series managed to become the AAA champions on a walk-off double that scored the tying and winning runs. 

I don't intend this post to be a full-season recap, so I'll just note that the Yankees had a historically good season, winning an AL-record 115 games and winning the pennant by 18 games over a pretty good Red Sox team. The Cardinals finished with 99 wins, pacing the NL by 13 games over Philadelphia. Both teams were good offensively, but there's really no comparison--St. Louis was 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and scored 0.5 runs per game more than the NL average, while the Yankees were 1st in the AL in runs scored and scored 1.6 runs per game more than the AL average. The Yankees hit .318 as a team with a team OPS of .846, a full .125 higher than the league average. The Cardinals hit a very good .290 with a team OPS of .727, 2nd in the league and "just" 0.33 greater than the league average. 

Pitching-wise, there's not the obvious advantage that the Cardinals had  (and that I tried to rationalize away) in 1918--the Cardinals allowed 3.9 RPG vs. an NL average of 4.2 RPG. The Yankees allowed 4.2 RPG vs. a league average of 4.4 RPG.  But maybe that needs to go one level deeper to make sure the Yankees pitchers didn't just look good because they didn't need to face Yankees hitters? In any case, the Yankees as a team were at or better than league average in most categories, as were the Cardinals.

Looking at individuals, it again seems like Rogers Hornsby is probably the best player on either team. He led the NL in batting (.387 vs. a league average of .274) among other things, and played a good enough shortstop to earn 9.9 WAR. I expect him to win the NL MVP, though Cristobal Torriente's monster year would get my vote. Whitey Witt finished second in batting and OPS, and led the league in runs scored. Irish Meusel was second in the league in isolated power and home runs, and led the league in RBI. 

But a variety of Yankees littered the offensive leaderboards, as you'd expect. Heilmann led the league in batting (.392 vs. a league average of .278) and Cobb was just behind at .388. Babe Ruth's historic season gave him first place in a lot of categories, but Yankees were just behind him in slugging and OPS (Louis Santop in 2nd, Cobb in 4th), runs scored (Charleston in 2nd, Collins in 4th, Cobb in 5th), isolated power (Santop in 2nd, Charleston in 4th), home runs (Santop, Charleston, and Heilmann in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th), etc. Even in WAR, while none of the Yankees matched Hornsby, Santop and Collins both earned over 8.0 WAR.

Both teams really only had one pitcher break into the leader boards. For the Cardinals it was Bill Doak, who led the NL in wins (25) and pitching WAR (6.6) and was only 1/3 of an inning off of leading in innings pitched. Lee Meadows finished 3rd in wins. But no Cardinals pitchers placed in the top five in ERA, opponents OPS, WHIP, or anything like that. The Yankees had a great year from Red Faber, who led the league in wins (27), was 2nd in shutouts (3), and 3rd in pitching WAR (6.4). Faber also finished 5th in ERA. Given the Yankees' record it's no surprise they took the top 3 places in winning pct. but Dave Brown ended up 4th in strikeouts and leading the league in K/9. If he'd managed to stay in the rotation all year he certainly would have led the league in strikeouts. Brown and Faber both placed in the top 5 of K/BB. 


With all that, I confess I don't know a lot about the Cardinals. They've got one trancendent hitter and (at least?) two great hitters, one ace pitcher, and I don't know what else. The Yankees have an exceedingly dangerous lineup at every position, and their own ace pitcher, and while the bullpen has felt very shaky it hasn't been bad statistically. Faber will clearly start Game 1, and I suppose it'll probably be Hendrix in Game 2 but might be Ruether or Brown. 

So, who am I picking?  Now that the Red Sox have ended the string of 5-game NL wins, I feel a little freer. :)  I really do think this Yankees team would be seen as historically good, not that that guarantees a series win. I'm going to go with the Yankees in 6--Faber and Doak split their head-to-head, and one of the other Yankees starters implodes, but the Yankees are just too good. I've got Santop as the MVP. Now let's see what happens!

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