Sunday, February 04, 2024

The Alt-1922 World Series Champions



Are your New York Yankees!



The Yankees defeated the Brooklyn Robins with relative ease, taking the series 4 games to 1. The only blot on the Yankees' record was a Brooklyn walkoff in a see-saw Game 2.  In retrospect, Brooklyn was lucky to avoid a sweep as they were outscored 31-11 in the series. Red Faber went 2-0, Cobb hit .600 to win the MVP, and Cy Williams came back from injury to hit a home run in each of Games 3-5 to set a World Series record.  The Yankees' pitching was the real surprise to me, since I was expecting a rehash of the 1921 World Series (and explicitly expecting 1918 again), but the staff had an ERA of 2.22 compared to Brooklyn's 5.79 (plus 4 unearned runs). The one clunker in the group was Ruether's Game 2 start, which still wasn't unrecoverably bad--5 runs in 5 innings. The relievers did well in that game, too, and the game was won for Brooklyn by an on-fire Casey Stengel more than lost by the relievers or the hitters. Luque and Vance complemented Faber's starts with excellent starts of their own, Vance's a CGSO in the final game.

In the end, the Watsonian description I laid out at the end of the preview post was much closer to the way things played out than the Doylist hard look at the numbers made me expect, which perhaps means I should also write a Watsonian recap. The Yankees just took care of business, and there was really a minimum of drama after Game 2 ended. 

 


So, what now? This is an on-year for the Fall Barnstorming Tour, which will take the teams through a bunch of stadia they haven't played in yet. I'm planning to add an A-level Eastern League, and some of the American Association teams will move there and be replaced by more Rust Belt cities. Grover Cleveland Alexander retired, to my surprise, which solidifies the Barnes and Robinson for Alexander trade as the worst I've ever swung. Baker did not retire, but at the moment I think he's going to be splitting playing time with Moore in 1923. For now, though, I'm just enjoying the glow of being champion. ;) 








Thursday, January 25, 2024

Alt-1922 World Series Preview

The Brooklyn (proto-)Dodgers vs. the New York Yankees are in the World Series, just like nature intended. Of course, Yankee Stadium isn't in operation yet, and the Dodgers are still called the Robins. But Casey Stengel will be on hand, about which more below.  This is another case of the Yankees coming in mashing and facing an NL opponent that is all about run prevention. Per recent tradition, the Yankees led the AL in basically every important offensive category, though they were only 3rd in drawing walks. On the other hand, they were up to 9th in stolen bases (half of them were by Oscar Charleston). Pitching-wise, though, things were not good. Rather than a mediocre staff, the Yankees seemed to have a downright bad one this year, finishing 7th in ERA, 7th in runs allowed, 8th in hits allowed, last in strikeouts, and only 7th in defensive efficiency on top of all that. Ick.


The Robins, for their part, were a bit better at batting than the Yankees were at pitching, finishing 4th-6th in the NL in most important categories. On the mound, they were as dominant as the Yankees were at the plate, finishing 1st in basically everything save walks (5th) and strikeouts (7th).  In addition, they led the NL in defensive efficiency and zone rating. These are the kinds of matchups that tend not to go the Yankees' way. 

The Robins were also remarkably consistent--they finished 95-67 for a .586 winning percentage. Their Pythagorean record was 96-66. They played at a .604 pace at home, .567 on the road. They played .590 in 1-run games, .590 vs. lefties and .585 vs. righties. They had a very hot April (19-7) a bad July (11-14) and were pretty consistently getting 15-17 wins and 10-12 losses the other months. 

The Yankees, on the other hand, were very hot and cold. They also had a very hot April, but their May was worse than the Robins' July. They were under .500 in 1-run games. They certainly didn't back in, but they did feel much shakier than it seemed they should have. Some of that could have been injuries--Eddie Collins missed nearly 8 weeks with one thing and another, and Peckinpaugh missed about 10 weeks between a back injury and a knee injury. Losing them in conjunction with playing the bad-fielding Cobb and Heilmann really hurt our overall defense. And then Cobb hit under .200 in September. Not good.

 

At this point, I'd typically run through and compare the players and lineups. A cursory look at the stats, though, suggests that that'd just be a re-run of the 1918 preview, with the names changed. Casey Stengel is no Rogers Hornsby, of course, but he is the best player in the Series according to WAR in 1922. The next several players in the series sorted by WAR are all on the Yankees. Sorting by OPS+ tells a similar story and in theory accounts for the park effects.  But Stengel and Wheat are basically the equal of anything the Yankees can put up against them, at least in 1922.  Pitching-wise, as you'd expect, it's all Robins. Sorting by ERA+ shows Lefty Williams at the head of the class, and two of the three expected starters for the Yankees down at league average or worse. But there is some hope for the Pinstripes--the best pitcher on Brooklyn's staff by ERA+, Ballplayer Koch (I'll flame about that another time), went down with a torn UCL in September and is out. The other Brooklyn standouts by ERA+ had very limited usage. Still, every Brooklyn pitcher who's likely to get any innings in was better than practically any Yankees pitcher in ERA+ other than Vance and Ruether.


 

I want the Yankees to win, and if I was in Watsonian mode I'd write here about how this team plays well with their backs against the wall, and the spark of getting Peckinpaugh back and the prospect of getting Cy Williams back starting in Game 2 and the Yankees pitchers having something to prove combined with Ty Cobb's mortification at how bad he was in September will all make a difference. But I'm in Doylist mode here, and  looking at the teams really is giving me 1918 World Series vibes, and the Cardinals beat the Yankees in 5 there. I've gotten better at matchups, and as always anything can happen in a short series, but I'm thinking Brooklyn in 5.  











Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Faber Leads Yankees to Playoff Victory: An article from the Alt-New York Examiner

 

New York, 2 October 1922: Six months after the 1922 baseball season began, the Yankees finally passed the Red Sox in the standings for good. Nearly 14,000 souls braved a rainy Monday in the Polo Grounds to watch their heroes in pinstripes topple the visitors from Boston 5-2 and secure a berth against the Brooklyn Robins in what's being called "The Subway Series". 

Today's win, like this season's pennant, did not come easily to the Yankees. And, like the season itself, New York spotted Boston an early lead--starter Red Faber ran into trouble in the 2nd when Grover Hartley tripled to deep left center field, driving in Paddy Siglin before Hartley himself was driven in by Harry Hooper. The Yankees started chipping away in the next inning, with the action started by Yankees captain Roger Peckinpaugh, newly returned from a sprained knee that had kept him out for nearly 7 weeks. Peckinpaugh singled, was sacrificed to second base by Faber, and then successfully tested his knee by scoring on a single through the middle by Charleston. New York tied the game the following inning with four consecutive singles by Santop, Cobb, Moore, and Goslin off of Red Sox starter Dutch Leonard, though Leonard stemmed the damage from being much worse. At this juncture, however, the mood in the Polo Grounds turned from pure anxiety to a more excited sense of inevitability, and during their next at-bats in the 5th inning Santop was able to cash in Charleston's leadoff double to give New York the lead. The Yankees tacked on an additional run in the 6th (singles by Moore, Goslin, and Peckinpaugh) and 7th innings (a leadoff double rocketed by Heilmann into deepest right center field in what was likely the hardest hit of the day, with singles by Cobb and Goslin bringing him in), the latter off of Boston reliever Erskine Mayer. 

Meanwhile, Faber held Boston down after the 2nd inning, only allowing four hits through the final 7 shutout frames, and outlasting a 20-minute rain delay. Faber went after the Boston batters all day, keeping Speaker off of the basepaths and keeping the mighty Ruth in the ballpark while facing him with the bases empty. 

After the game, the principals for both teams were by turns emotional and philosophical, though as you might expect the home clubhouse was much more animated and positive in both areas. Red Sox manager Bill Carrigan expressed pride in his team and how they kept pace with the Yankees in the final weeks of the season even when many sportswriters expected them to fold. Boston captain Harry Hooper congratulated the Yankees and expressed gratitude to the Red Sox' fans, over a million of whom attended games at Fenway Park this season. Ruth, never a shrinking violet, was nevertheless subdued compared to his typical demeanor. "This was quite the year" Ruth noted, "I didn't play up to the standard I set for myself the last couple of years, and of course I muffed that easy fly here a few weeks ago. I'll do everything I can to bring another championship home in 1923 to the best fans in baseball."  Up to his standard or no, Ruth will almost certainly win his 4th consecutive MVP award this year. 

As for the Yankees, the joy at winning the pennant was tempered a bit by a sense of unfinished business and memories of last year. Ty Cobb in particular spoke of "avenging last year" in a manner that somewhat belied claims that he'd mellowed since arriving in New York. Charleston, as close as the Yankees come to a Babe Ruth type, said the American League pennant meant more than "a week's worth of coin flips in lousy weather" but readily agreed that a Series win would be "necessary to end the season on a high note" and that it would rankle to "see a championship banner hanging across town". Eddie Collins, heading to his jaw-dropping 9th World Series, praised the Yankees' achievement of winning a third straight pennant and gave particular credit to Dobie Moore, who more than ably filled in for long stretches when either Collins or Peckinpaugh (or both!) were hurt. 

The World Series begins on Thursday in Brooklyn's Ebbets Field. 


Monday, January 22, 2024

Alt-1922: Like 1978 or like 1904?

 

In the end I suppose it was going to always be this--the Yankees and Red Sox are tied after Game 162, and need to play Game 163.  The will do so at the Polo Grounds, with Dutch Leonard facing Red Faber.  Things looked exceedingly dire for the Pinstripes after they dropped a very winnable game to the Athletics in Game 161 while Boston won their 5th in a row, but there was a wild finish the next day.  

New York turned to Dazzy Vance to try and hold down Philadelphia while they then hoped for Cleveland to beat Boston, but Vance was very ineffective in the first few innings and Bullet Rogan let some inherited runners score, and the Yanks were staring at a 8-1 deficit. They fought back and took a 9-8 lead into the 7th, which Pennock then gave back before rookie Cliff Bell threw a couple of clean innings. It took something of a miracle finish including a questionable Philadelphia attempt to cut off a run at home vs. taking the out at first to set up a walkoff 2-RBI double by Goose Goslin and a 12-11 win.

In Cleveland, the Red Sox-Spiders game followed what seemed to be a familiar pattern--the Spiders roughed Ray Collins up early, but a 4-0 lead was not nearly enough and Boston entered the 9th with a 7-4 lead and Collins still on the mound. However, a Ray Chapman triple tied up the game and put the winning run on third with 1 out. Erskine Mayer shut down that threat, and the game stayed deadlocked at 7 until the 13th inning, with repeated instances of Speaker getting to 2nd base followed by Babe Ruth getting intentionally walked and the Spiders escaping.  Finally, Alt-1915 legend Bevo LeBorveau drove in Guy Sturdy with the winning run, and we had our flatfooted tie atop the AL.

The Yankees have done very well against Boston this year, and Faber is 5-0 against them. Leonard is the ace of the Boston staff, but hasn't been quite as good in the second half. In-universe, people might wonder if Faber is cut out for big games, though of course this (should be) random.  In another random in-universe storyline,  Roger Peckinpaugh, the Yankees captain, is apparently healthy enough to play in Game 163 for the first time in over a month. 

Let's see how this goes.  Depending on the outcome I may go for a Watsonian post vs. a Doylist one...

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

The Final Throes of the Alt-1922 Regular Season

 

It's the morning of 27 September 1922, and the pennant races are as good as I've had since starting this simulation back in 1915. The Yankees cling to a 1/2 game lead over Boston, with a tie in the (all-important) loss column. In the NL, the Giants are up 1 1/2 games over Brooklyn, 2 in the loss column. The Yanks and Robins have 4 games to play, the Red Sox and Giants have 5. The Yankees and Giants are at home the rest of the way, Boston is on the road, Brooklyn has one more away game before finishing at home. 

The story continues to feel like one of missed chances. Since last time, the Yankees dropped as far as 4 games behind Boston before picking up a game somewhere and then sweeping the Sox to pull into a tie. The Yankees have been up as much as a game on Boston, but they can't seem to put them away--our inability to reliably beat bad teams may be our undoing, and we finish the season against bad teams. Boston finishes against the 3rd and 4th place teams in Cleveland and Kansas City, and while they're clearly on the ropes they refuse to go down.

The Giants similarly seem to not quite be able to put the Robins away, though the Robins also aren't quite taking advantage of the Giants' iffy recent play. 

Before closing this short update, I'll congratulate the San Diego Aces, Little World Series champions, and the Richmond Colts, winners of the Governors' Cup. 

Friday, December 29, 2023

Alt-1922: Home Stretch!

 

For starters, The AL won the All-Star Game 4-1 on the strength of a Babe Ruth home run. 

When last we left things, the Yankees were 7 1/2 games back, in third place just behind Newark. The Red Sox, who had gone 20-7 over the previous month, looked like they were cruising to an easy pennant. The defending AL champion Yankees had just gone 14-13 over that same stretch and seemed to be slogging their way to a 2nd place finish if they were lucky, but they were closer to 7th place than 1st.

At the start of play today, 1 September 2022, they are only 1 1/2 games behind Boston and much closer to the Sox than the now-3rd-place Spiders. In theory I should be happy about this, and in practice I am, but I nevertheless can't feel a bit disappointed--as it turns out this has been (or at least felt) less like the Yankees catching fire and the Red Sox coming back to Earth vs. the Yankees playing a bit better and the Red Sox collapsing.

Since 9 July, the Yankees have gone 28-18, a .609 pace that translates to 99 wins over a full season. That's good but far short of what I was speculating might be necessary at the end of the last post. Boston has gone 21-23 over that stretch, though. Cleveland, meanwhile, has gone 29-15, including a 12-game winning streak that's landed them 4 1/2 games out and in third place at this writing. The time since the ASG adds up to over a quarter of the season, so this is no mere blip. The frustration here is that the Yankees had actually caught the Red Sox and have spent a couple of days in first place (by 1/2 game) before dropping back, and could just as easily be up by 2-3 games at this point--they're 5 games off of their Pythag pace. 

Just a quick note about the Yankees' farm teams--the Maple Leafs are also sitting in 2nd place, a game behind Rochester. The Pelicans are in 8th place, per usual, but have played at a .540 pace in the past two months. I did something of a house cleaning for New Orleans rather than letting the AI do its thing, and since then the Pels have been much improved. 

The Yankees led the league in OPS in both July and August, though this was no change from their May-June slump. The pitching did turn around, though--the Yankees gave up 5.4 runs per game in May+June, which dropped to 4.05 in July + August. It's not completely obvious to me what drove that, though it's likely to have been an addition by subtraction thing of getting Alexander out of the starting rotation and really just doing mop-up work until he (hopefully) got himself sorted. I've been using Vance a lot more, driven by his ratings starting to come way up. Faber turned a slow decline into a slow improvement, and Luque has been pretty steady. Ruether and Pennock took Rixey and Alexander's rotation spots and Ruether in particular has pitched well. 

So, we'll see how the final month of Alt-1922 plays out. Rosters expand in about a week, I'm not totally sure who to bring up. If Toronto is still in the hunt for the IL pennant I probably won't bring up anyone yet...

Saturday, December 09, 2023

All-Star Break, Alt-1922


It's July 9th, 1922. The All-Star teams have just been announced, with the game scheduled for the 11th at Forbes Field in Pittsburgh. Three Yankees have been selected for the starting nine--Louis Santop, Harry Heilmann, and Ty Cobb. Riggs Stephenson, the 1921 AL Rookie of the Year, will be making the start at second base, Pete Kilduff of the Athletics ran away with the voting for AL shortstop, and the other three position players are all from the Red Sox: Larry Gardner, Tris Speaker, and of course Babe Ruth. Bill Force of the Spiders will be making the start for the AL.  Eight teams have contributed to the 18-man All-Star roster, with the Browns and White Sox unrepresented.  



Rogers Hornsby had the most votes on NL ballots. He's joined by two Giants, two Robins, and two members of the Buffalo Blues (including the shockingly bearded rookie phenom Lou Gehrig). Jimmy Johnston of the Phillies and Heavy Johnson of the Rustlers round out the NL starting nine. Nobody from the Reds or Orioles is on the team. 



The AL leads the series 3 games to 2, with each league undefeated in its home park. That would seem to point to the NL having the advantage, in theory. 

Meanwhile, despite having three All-Stars, the Yankees are in a pretty deep hole. At this writing, with their game finished but the other MLB games yet to occur, they find themselves in 3rd place-- 8 games behind Boston and a game behind Newark. They followed up their terrible 13-16 May with a good-but-not-amazing June (15-11) and are an uninspiring 3-5 in July. They're on a 90-win pace, which could end up putting them 10 or more games back at the end of the season.  The Red Sox, meanwhile, ripped off a 12-game winning streak in June to put themselves very much in the AL driver's seat. 

At first blush, the problem seems to be the pitching. The team sits atop most batting categories, per usual. However, it's down in 8th or 9th place in a lot of the pitching categories including ERA, opponent's batting average, and (shockingly!) home runs allowed.  This last one is particularly dismaying since the Yankees hit so many home runs there wouldn't seem to be that many left for the other teams to hit. 

I think some of this is a park effect, though. The Yankees are only 3rd in OPS in road games and only 6th in OBP. Meanwhile, they're 4th in road ERA and OPS against. So, not terrible?  Meanwhile, they're dead last in home ERA and 9th in OPS against. Nevertheless, the Yanks are a very good 27-13 at home and a really not good 22-26 on the road. 

Looking at individual players, there are a few folks who I think would be drawing the ire of the fans. Most obvious is Pete Alexander, who is looking like he might finish below replacement level and has been relegated to mop-up duty. Meanwhile, the players the Yankees traded to the Phillies for him are doing just fine: Hank Robinson is on track for a 20-win season and Jesse Barnes is doing a perfectly credible league-average job. The pitching staff as a whole is suffering, too--only George Mogridge has an ERA+ higher than 100 (and he's only at 104). Faber's looking at a 4-WAR season, but this has not been a good season for the staff.

Among the batters, Cobb has the most obvious drop off, though that's because he hit an insane and historic .428 in 1921. He still is projecting to 6+ WAR. Heilmann's WAR is projected to be 7.6, which is even better than 1921 when he also hit over .400. Peckinpaugh is also projected at this point to have a better 1922 than 1921. The biggest real drop is Eddie Collins, who's spent a lot of time on the IL. There are some other small drops among the hitters, but this seems to be on the pitchers.

Once the All-Star break is over, there will be about 74 games left. Winning 2/3 of them will get the Yankees to 98 wins, which seems unlikely to be enough without the Red Sox cooperating. Winning 3/4 would get the Yankees to about 104 wins, which could be enough but might not be. We'll have to see if I can get the Yankees going in the second half or if it'll be an October 1922 spent listening to baseball on the wireless.