Sunday, November 20, 2022

(Sort-of Brief) 1919 World Series Preview

I thought I'd written and posted an update with a month to go, but I apparently didn't!  I did post to Twitter and Mastodon, though.  In any case, the Yankees trailed the Red Sox for the entire season by 4-5 games, but somehow managed to claw their way into a tie with 9 games remaining. This set the stage for a season-defining 3-game set at Fenway, which Boston swept. Typically for this season, the Yankees held a lead in each of the games but either the relievers couldn't hold a lead or the starters gave it right back. The third game was lost when Babe Ruth hit a 3-run home run in the 8th to set the MLB record for most home runs in a season. 

Still, it was hard to argue that Boston wasn't the better team this year, and it was hard to be upset with the Yankees.  They finished with 102 wins, it was just that Boston finished with 106. 


Anyhow, I intended this to be a brief World Series preview, so I should get to that!  The Red Sox will face the Phillies, who won 102 games themselves and ran away with the NL. This is a rematch of 1917, which the Phillies won in 5 games. This Red Sox team is allowing 0.1 run per game less and scoring 0.1 run per game more than the 1917 team, relative to the league average, while the Phillies are better than the league average by 0.2 runs per game relative to 1917. 

Many of the principals are still in place, as you might imagine. The Phillies are still led by Dave Bancroft and Pete Alexander, even if slugger Gavvy Cravath was traded to the Browns in June. The Red Sox still have 1917 MVP Tris Speaker in fine form, even if Babe Ruth has eclipsed him and looks to be a unanimous MVP. Boston also caught lightning in a bottle with Rudy Kallio, who spent the vast majority of his baseball career as a decent pitcher in the PDC in real life. In the simulation, the OOTP algorithm loves him for some reason, so he's gone 21-7 as a rookie and led the AL in ERA. 



OK, let me see. Every year I've played this game (since 1915) the NL has won every single World Series in 5 games. The Phillies beat the Red Sox in 1917 in 5 games, but seem maybe a bit better relative to the NL than the Red Sox do compared to the AL? It's been the year of the sweep in the minors, with Wichita sweeping Birmingham for the AA Governors' Cup and Seattle sweeping Toronto in the AAA Little World Series. But Babe Ruth is Babe Ruth. I'll go with the Phillies in 5. 















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