Alt-1925 World Series Preview

The Buffalo Blues pulled off the most dramatic comeback in history (and/or the St. Louis Cardinals completed the most comprehensive collapse in history) with a resounding 17-1 win at Sportsman's Park. The post-mortem will have to wait, however, because our attention now turns to a Blues-Yankees World Series. 

On paper this is absolutely no contest. The Blues went went 20-9 (.690) in September to catch the Cards, an excellent month and probably the best month in their history. The Yankees were better than .690 in every month save April (.565) and August (.679).  In September they went 26-1 (.963).  The Yankees are 1st in every important batting category and in the top 3 in every pitching and defense category. Buffalo is 2nd in batting bases on balls and in base running, 3rd in runs scored and home runs,  and 4th in OPS, and no better than 4th in other batting categories, and while they are 2nd in ERA, runs allowed, and pitching WAR and 1st in bullpen ERA, they are 9th in hits allowed and opponents AVG and dead last in defensive efficiency and zone rating. The Blues won 98 games but outplayed their Pythagorean record by 5 games. The Yankees also outplayed their Pythagorean record by 5 games, leaving them "only" a 119-win team by runs scored/allowed. New York had no real L/R or Home/Road split, while Buffalo is better at home than the road and much better vs. lefty pitchers than righties. 

Turning to the players, again the Yankees dominate on paper. I was expecting to be writing a Yankees-Cardinals preview and hitting a lot of the same points as usual, that Hornsby was still probably the best player in the Series, but now I think there's no question it's Babe Ruth.  Ruth had 9.0 WAR, easily the best of anybody. Charleston came in a hair ahead of Gehrig for 2nd place for position players with Cobb and Sewell tied for 4th and then three more Yankees in 6th-8th place. Even this underplays things a little since Cobb got his tie for 4th in only 79 games and Peckinpaugh and Heilmann in 7th and 8th also missed significant time. The Blues also have two regulars with negative WAR (Tierney and Yuna), while the worst Yankee regular was Bill Terry with 0.8. 

The story on the pitching side is a bit better for the Blues, at least as far as WAR, but not a lot better. Luque leads the pack with 7.0, then Pennock, Bush, and Nehf strung out 2-4. Yankee and Blue players alternate further down the list. Looking at other metrics seems to put the Yankees on top: For ERA+, the Yankees take 5 of the top 6 spots (Luque on top, Fitzsimmons and Pennock, the other two Series starters for the Yankees at 5 & 6, with reliever David Watson at 2 for Buffalo), and the Yankees also hold 6 of 8 of the top spots in FIP. 

If this were a Watsonian narrative, this is where I'd put in some quote from Art Nehf about the 1921 World Series, and something from Peckinpaugh about how the Yankees take everybody seriously and really respect what the Blues did this year, and Gehrig saying the Blues have answered the bell every time and weren't afraid of New York... However, this is a Doylist narrative, and so instead I'll say that anything can happen in a 7-game series, and the game can be very frustrating, and sometimes teams just seem to get hot or cold or unlucky or something.  But I don't see the kinds of things that lead to the upsets in other years. The Yankees are hot, and they're healthy. 

OK, time for the prediction I guess.  I feel like it's the same thing I say most years--the Yankees seem like they should sweep or maybe win in 5. If Buffalo wins I think it'll take 7. I'll go Yankees in 5. 

Watsonian Excerpts from Alt-1925 (Almost) at the Regular Season's End

 

New York Examiner:

The new week begins with the American League idle. At rest. For nine of the AL's teams, that rest will take them through until early 1926, but for our pinstriped heroes, it will only last a few days. The World Series will begin in in a few days at the Bronx in the House that Slug Built, with the only question who the Yankees will be hosting. Regardless of who shows up, they will be heavy underdogs after the way our boys tore through September and October, winning an astonishing 26 consecutive games and leaving a good Kansas City team 24 games behind. And if this year's team did not (quite) reach the 125-game heights that last year's team did, the acquisition of Babe Ruth did not disappoint.  

St. Louis Globe:

We will begin by stipulating that 1915 was worse than 1925, no matter what tomorrow brings. Even as the Browns sat in 9th place both years, having the Cardinals win about 25% more of their games makes this a better year. And, indeed, the Rajah et al. may yet bring five more wins this year and lead all to forget about the last month. The Browns escaped the cellar thanks to halfway-competent play in August and September while the Senators collapsed, but the Senators drew 100,000 more fans than the Browns and maintained some fan interest while Mound City fans checked out as Dapper Dan took the reins.

But this Browns talk is just stalling because we don't want to face the Cardinals' possible fate.  At the All-Star Break, the Cards looked like they could go toe-to-toe against the Yankees, and their 10.5 game lead over Baltimore was much bigger than the Packers' deficit behind New York. But they could not keep up that pace and they stopped hitting in September (except for Hornsby) and now here we are. 

We have to thank the stars that we won in 1918. Even a win tomorrow only will bring the prospect of facing the Yankees yet again, having that Murderer's Row parade around the bases from Collins to Santop to that brute Cy Williams. And, just our luck, Oscar Charleston has learned to hit again. And now there's Babe Ruth.

Still, losing to the Yankees would mean we had won the pennant. Sitting home and listening to the Blues lose to the Yankees on the wireless would mean we had a collapse of epic proportions.

Buffalo Journal-News:

This is the National League's 50th season. In the 49 completed seasons, pennant winners have come from New York and from Chicago; from Philadelphia and from Baltimore; from cities that don't have a team in the league any longer like Detroit and from cities that don't have a big-league team at all like Providence. Nine of the ten cities in the National League have had a pennant winner in a major league, whether the NL, or the American League, or the old American Association. The odd city out is our own Queen City. 

While the Bisons won a few Eastern League crowns, and we are not ungrateful for them, today we stand as close as Buffalo has ever been to a big-league pennant. None of the previous entries, whether NL or even the Players' League, came close to the top. With a win today, the Blues will win the pennant and face the mighty Yankees. They would be deep underdogs to the New Yorkers, but that is a problem for another day. 

Even having this chance is a mighty surprise. The Blues began September in second place but 10 games back. This was already on track to be the best showing in Buffalo baseball history, but a torrid 20-9 record in September combined with a shocking 10-16 showing by the Cardinals brought our boys most of the way back. The Blues kicked it up a notch, with both pitchers and hitters responding. 

Whatever Hal Chase has been doing, he needs to keep doing it for one more game.

Newark (NJ) Dispatch:

The Peppers entered the league at the same time as the Packers, Blues, and Orioles, and it seemed like a miracle--in the span of a few short weeks Newark went from a minor league city to the Federal League to the American League. But while the Packers have been a first-division team since 1920, the Orioles have drafted and traded well and look to be a late-20s powerhouse, and the Blues may end the day as National League pennant winners, the Peppers have yet to reach .500 or sniff the first division.  We have some good players, but no Frankie Frisch, Guy Bush, or Mickey Cochrane has worn our uniform, let alone a Sam Streeter, Lou Gehrig or Al Simmons.

While the other former-Feds had some very difficult years, they all now find themselves vying for the pennant (if the Yankees ever loosen their grip) while the Peppers cycle between 6th and 10th place. Furthermore, the solution to the team's problems does not appear to be close at hand, and it may be the 1930s before they can compete. By then, they may be back in Indianapolis or in Louisville or some other would-be big-league city, but one that can't hear about Heilmann or Torriente's latest escapades on the local wireless.  We hope he Peppers (or whatever name they may have in the future) will stay in the Garden State, but that future remains cloudier than we might hope.

Alt-1925 Home Stretch!

 

We're 150 games in (for most MLB teams), and it's past time for an update.

Pennant Races: Loooooong over for the American League. The Yankees at this writing have won 21 games in a row (!), which I believe the all-time record in this universe--the real-life 26-game winning streak the New York Giants enjoyed in 1916 didn't happen in Alt-1916, so the longest in-universe winning streaks should be (I think) the 21-game winning streak the 1880 White Stockings had (which neglects some ties), and/or the 20-game winning streak the 1884 Grays had. The old AL record was the 1906 White Sox' 19-gamer, though that also had ties, or the 17-game streak the 1912 Senators had if you want a win-only streak. In any case, the Yankees had been coming across as having a very good year but not on par with 1923-1924 until the winning streak. Now they have a chance (but still only an outside chance) to set the single-season record for wins. Needless to say, the Yankees are absolutely running away with the AL and had clinched even before this winning streak started. 

The Cardinals had also been running away with the NL but have been scuffling in September. Not awful (8-9), but not really putting the pennant away. At the same time, the Buffalo Blues have gone 15-4 in September and have closed to 3 games back. The most likely outcome is still a Yankees-Cardinals World Series, but it's not quite a done deal yet.

More about the Yankees: In theory, this would be the time for the Bombers to take the foot off the gas--the call-ups have happened, injuries have bitten the Yankees both this year and in past years, and the team really doesn't seem like it would have anything left to prove.  However, there are a few things that are still leading me to play the A lineup and run the usual rotation out there at least for now--I reckon the winning streak shouldn't end because I run the Maple Leafs out there, plus there still is the off chance we can set the record for wins. Babe Ruth, who's having one of the all-time great seasons, is about to set the single-season RBI record and the AL single-season HR record isn't out of the question for him. Getting 25 wins is very much in play for both Pennock and Luque, and 20 is possible for Fitzsimmons. Heilmann, Lazzeri, Charleston, and Santop all have 85 RBI or more, and it seems likely that at least one of them will reach 100 RBI given the number of runs that the Yankees are scoring. Collins is fighting for the batting title and is tied for the stolen base lead. He's at 199 hits also, and only 4 off the league lead in that. I assume that eventually the winning streak will end, and three losses would put the win record out of reach, at which point the regulars will all get rest. Even at this point, though, I'm trying to make sure there's plenty of rest. 

The minors: The Cotton States League is coming up to its last day or two before the playoffs, which will pit Hampton Roads vs. Meridian. The Eastern Classic pitted the Akron Pros vs. the Springfield Ponies, both of them winning their league's pennant for the first time. Sprinfield came back from a 2-0 deficit to shock Akron by winning in 5 games.  The Governor's Cup is returning to Milwaukee for Game 6 as Charlotte keeps hanging on after the Brewers put them in a 3-0 hole. The Maple Leafs won back-to-back Little World Series (and 3 of the last 4) in a rematch of 1923 against Sacramento. Toronto dominated the series, which somehow still went 6 games. 

International Baseball: As noted elsewhere, 1926 actually began with the Manila Bay League, where the Meralco Conductors won the regular season but were upended by the Post of Manila Bearcats in the finals. The Dutch league similarly found the regular-season winner Amsterdam Quick beaten in the finals by Haarlem SC. The Nicaraguan Liga Interlocal was won by Xolotlán of Managua, who bucked these other trends and also won in the playoff. The Mexican LMB championship is still ongoing, with Equipo de Mexico currently leading that best-of-7 series 2 to 1 over Agraria. The Dominican and Cuban Winter Leagues have yet to get underway.

OK, back to it!