Alt-1921: Forty games (or so) to go!

 

Since we last checked in, the Yankees' relentless pursuit of Philadelphia has turned into the Athletics' dogged attempt to stay close to New York. The Yankees went 8-1 in the period between my last post and the All-Star Game, including a 2-game sweep of Boston and a series win against the Athletics just before the All-Star Break. That series win left Philadelphia and New York tied, and the All-Star Game found a shorthanded AL deliver a walk-off win to the sellout crowd at Griffith Stadium, as Ty Cobb doubled in Newark's Charlie Hollocher. 

The Bombers have been as far as 1.5 games behind the Athletics since then, but have mostly been in first place (as much as 3 games, currently 2). They sit at 77-44 currently, so have had a 28-12 stretch. That's .700, which is what they were able to do across all of 1920. So, maybe this is sustainable? On the other hand, they've lost to some bad teams when they have lost in this stretch: For instance, they're only 2-3 against the last-place Browns. One quick thought I'll stick here--I think I'm getting penalized (inadvertently) by picking up Negro League players like Blackwell, Moore, and Brown early (and Cannonball Redding, back in the day):  Their stats are treated as AAA or AA stats, so they're not as good players as they should be. Charleston and Rogan are also not as good as they should be, but are so good that they're still standouts. The Negro League players coming into Alt-1921 have their stats treated as MLB, so they're getting boosts relative to the others. That'll eventually even out as more and more new Black ballplayers show up and older ones retire, but for now I think it gives a lot of other teams a boost relative to the Yankees...

The big off-field news is probably the Frank Allen for Dolph Luque trade pulled off at the deadline. I'd had my eye on Luque earlier in the season, but he was dealt to the Spiders before I had decided what to do (and that, in turn, cemented my decision to trade for Rixey).  Allen was exceedingly shaky as our closer, there was no reasonable way to have him supplant someone in the rotation, and while he was only 32 his actual career had ended years earlier so I felt he was on borrowed time (or past it). I don't think missing Allen will mean missing the pennant, and I think having Luque will make 1922-1924 much better for the Yanks. I still definitely have a pitching logjam, which was not necessarily improved by a different trade I swung with Boston to get Mogridge back. 

I'll stick the standings below, I'll note that in the NL the Robins have dropped out of first place (which they've held much of the year) and the Rustlers have stepped up. They're both pretty close, so the race certainly isn't over yet. The Giants are in 3rd, but are are enough back that they're probably not going to be a factor.

Stats-wise, it's another battle between Cobb and Heilmann for the batting title, both have been near .410-.415 for a while.  Cobb was hurt and while he could have played I kept him out of the lineup just in case. He should get enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, barring another injury. Heilmann has been a workhorse and is on pace for 150 or so RBI.  Nevertheless, I expect Ruth to win the MVP again and to set the home run record again.  I'm not sure he'll reach 50, though. He also might not hold the record at the end of the year--Torriente is only two behind him...

Halfway through Alt-1921

 

A long weekend and an itch to play saw me sprint through the second quarter of the season pretty quickly. My pace was probably helped, ironically enough, by the frustrating nature of the first part of that second quarter. When we last checked in, the Yankees were 25-16 (a .610 pace) and 3.5 games behind the A's. They are currently 49-32 (.604) and 3 games back. So, it may seem like they more or less have been treading water, but it is not so!  They hit a very rough patch immediately after the last post which saw them in 4th place 8 games back after 49 games (a 2-6 stretch that left them at 27-22) and after 58 games they were 32-26 and in 4th place, 7.5 games back.  They've gone 17-6 since then to put them more or less where they were last time.  

The way they were losing those games during that 17-game stretch was a maddening reminder of Alt-1916. The pitchers would consistently give up 2-3 runs in the first inning, the Yankees would (often) battle back because their offense can't be held down, and then the relievers would blow it in the 8th or 9th. Sometimes, for variety, the starters would cough it up instead if I decided I couldn't trust the relievers. Thurston's rotation spot went to Dave Brown (who was lighting up Toronto), but Brown stunk and so the spot went to Jesse Barnes. Brown also stunk as a reliever, as did basically all relievers (except Caldwell, who I didn't use much for various reasons).  Brown is back in Toronto (and again lighting it up, as is Thurston).

Whether the pitching staff was just going through a collective slump or I've sorted out who's best in what role, I don't know. Offense is up all over the majors, and 3-4 run innings have been unfolding quickly rather than as a series of station-to-station events. Hendrix has been the hero of the staff, with Faber and Rixey dependable-ish. I may have been focusing too much on WAR for pitchers rather than things like ERA+, but the offense has often been able to save the day. 

In-universe, I've imagined what the reaction to all of this would have been. Gnashing of teeth among Yankees press and fans, presumably. But in the last few weeks, I can imagine the vibe might have changed. It is easy to think that A's fans and the Philadelphia press is nervously watching the Yankees closing ground on them inexorably. The Athletics have won 8 more games than their Pythag would suggest, while the Yankees have won two fewer. Whether that's seen as evidence of a Cinderella season for the A's or  that they're playing over their head may be a matter of optimism vs. pessimism for a fan...

The Athletics probably deserve their own post, but it won't be today. :)

Alt-1921 at the quarter pole

We're 41 games into the Alt-1921 season, and the Yankees are playing at a 100-win pace. Whether that will be good enough to win the pennant, however, is very much an open question. The Yanks are currently sitting in second place, 3.5 games behind the surprising Philadelphia Athletics. Kansas City and Cleveland are pretty close behind New York.  Boston, expected to take the pennant by the AI, languishes in 7th place 10 games back and 4 games under .500.

While they are not in first place at the moment, I certainly wouldn't say the Yankees' title defense has gone "badly". The team's offense is humming along pretty well, and they're 1st in runs scored, hits, and WAR. They're 2nd in home runs because Babe Ruth is on a different and reasonably well-hitting team. Even the pitching, while difficult to watch at times, has ultimately been mid-pack. However, the relief pitching, particularly erstwhile closer/stopper Frank Allen, has been atrocious. The bullpen ERA is 8th in the league, and Allen has had 4 blown saves. Allen is way past his sell-by date, and I've been very tempted to unload him (though the algorithm still loves him).  The flip side of this is that I can't really tell what Philadelphia is doing right--they're mid-pack in most offensive and defensive categories, though their pitching is somewhat better than ours. They are 5 games over their Pythagorean record, so maybe the answer is they're just getting lucky--if everyone were playing at their Pythag, the Yankees would be in first place (if only just). 

I'll quickly turn to the other leagues--Our roommates (the New York Baseball Giants) are leading the NL by a game, after the Rustlers rocketed out to a very fast start. They now sit a game back, with Brooklyn just behind. The Phillies are 2.5 games back, so New York is not the only city dreaming of a Subway Series. The Maple Leafs are in a dogfight with Worcester in the International League, and are currently one game behind the Boosters. Vernon has a healthy lead for this time of year in the PCL. Tulsa and Tri-Cities are tied atop the Western League, with Milwaukee and Wichita just behind. San Antonio leads the Southern League by a half-game over Birmingham, with the 9th-place Crackers only 4 back.  New Orleans has been flirting with but never quite reaching .500 all season. And finally, New Haven leads the new American Association by a game over Hartford and Allentown. 

I'll hold comments about injuries and individual performances until the next post, but I'd be remiss if I didn't note that Harry Heilmann has been absolutely in the zone--he's hitting about .470 after 41 games and has only just had a 36-game hitting streak snapped. He's on pace for 300 hits and 190 RBI. Even if/when regression happens, it'll be (in theory) to a .400 pace since he actually hit .400 or so in reality and hit .392 in Alt-1920...