Alt-1924 Season Preview

The game calendar sits at Saturday April 5th, 1924. The regular season begins on Monday, 7 April. I've had a bit of a tradition of having teams play one of their minor-league affiliates (or a nearby team if the affiliates are too far) on the Saturday before the regular season starts, and so the Maple Leafs will host the Yankees as soon as this post is finished. I've put these games on the calendar as exhibition games before, and they have drawn terribly low attendance. That doesn't actually matter, but trying to keep a somewhat in-game character it's not clear why teams would keep doing this if the attendance is so low. This year I'm bookkeeping them as Spring Training games, we'll see if the attendance is more like what those games typically get. If only ~300 folks show up in Toronto again rather than 3000 I might revisit this and let the whole thing go. 

But this is all a sidelight to the main business of looking ahead to this season. The Yankees sputtered their way through Spring Training, as seems to be an annual experience. At least a few of the offensive stars are just fine--Heilmann and Williams tore it up with OPS > 1.000, and Cobb and Goslin weren't too far behind. Charleston and Santop were dreadful, though, and Charleston in particular is worrisome. His batting ratings have tanked (though his defensive ones are through the roof) just as he should be making history. Algorithm-wise, the game considers his real-life team to have been at AA level so maybe it's docking him for that?  Still, he hit .393 with an OPS near 1.200 so you think he'd get some credit for that. In-universe, it could be seen as him still trying to get over the broken hand he suffered in 1923. In any case, it's cause for concern. Arlett may also be turning into a pumpkin.  The pitchers were basically fine, though it felt like the games were a repeated scenario of most pitchers doing well and then someone giving up 3-4 runs in an inning (and the Yankees losing 5-2 or something like that). Fitzsimmons really pushed (as the kids say) and earned a spot in the bigs. Luque got hurt and I put him on the IL, where he's stay until mid-April. It's mostly a way to buy time, though, because I have some roster decisions to make about two players who've been with me since I started playing. 

The first is Frank Baker, who was the first splashy acquisition of my tenure (and also the very first one of any kind). In real life he retired at the end of 1922, and he arguably should have done so in this game, too--he would have gone out on a championship team in a year where he was clearly declining but still the starting third baseman, and it would have looked (in-universe) like he was going out on his own terms. Instead, he hung around and lost his starting job, and then the Giants beat them in the series (though Baker played decently in limited appearances).  His spring was pretty bad (though hopefully he had a nice 38th birthday), and he batted under .200. His fielding has deteriorated to the point that the game thinks he should be a catcher now, and he got hurt with a (mild) back injury with about a week to go in ST.  Needless to say, we don't need him as our 4th-string catcher and there's no way demoting him makes sense vs. releasing him.  So, I think with all of that I'm just going to have him retire after the first home game. That seems reasonably in-keeping with a storyline of him seeing the writing on the wall and the team wanting to have a Frank Baker Day, and is also consistent with how Birdie Cree went out. 

The second is Ray Caldwell, and he's a much stickier problem. His arrival on the Yankees predates me, and he's been a steady member of the pitching staff since 1911. He won 20 games for our 1918 pennant winners, but has been down at the 30 IP per year level for the last few years. He's still passable, but I'd just as soon give those 30 IP to someone else who's better than passable (and who might end up earning more than 30 IP).  He also refused to be demoted (not a surprise I guess), so we're at a bit of a fork in the road. I could have him retire as well as Baker, but while he was out of MLB after 1921 in real life, he kept playing at lower and lower levels until age 45 in 1933. So, I feel like I should maybe see if I can shop him around and release him if nobody offers anyone useful. It'd be a tough way to end his tenure (and the fans won't be happy), but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

As for the team itself, despite the uninspiring spring, there's not a lot for Yankee haters to hang their hats on. The Yankees should be able to withstand off-years from a few regulars, given who's on the bench and who's down in Toronto. We still have the top farm system, and a few ranks of reinforcements there. The Yankees had such a big lead over KC, Cleveland, and the A's last season that even if that gap was halved we'd cruise to a comfortable pennant. Babe Ruth looks to be back in form based on his Spring Training, but the Red Sox were a last-place team in 1923 and the Babe alone won't be able to solve all their problems.  But, as they say, this is why they play the games...

A Watsonian Post with Doylist Footnotes

 

As we hurtle toward the end of February 1924 and toward the start of spring training, it's time for a quick look ahead at the season to come and our coverage here. 

Baseball has already been meaningfully played this in 1924, as the newly-expanded Caribbean League championship was decided in two early-January games in Tampa. The Smokers got off to a fast start in the Northern Division, and though the Pilots caught them with a week or so to go, Pensacola tumbled while Tampa took care of business. The Southern Division once again was won by a Havana team, though this year it was the Leones who unseated Almendares. The newcomers of Violette AC will need to wait their turn for glory, in line with the Stars and the long-suffering Tigres del Licey.

There will be yet more newcomers in 1924 in addition to Haiti's Violette EC and their Carribean League Southern Division counterpart St. Petersburg Saints: The Cotton States League joins the MLB system, though it is not clear if or how they might join the Eastern Classic competition between the American Association and Eastern League.  Nevertheless, this brings the number of teams at the A level to 22, which is a likely harbinger of affiliating the teams in A-class leagues with MLB teams¹ and also looking ahead to the anticipated expansion of the AL and NL about 3-4 years hence.  The Cotton States League serves to proudly plant the flag of the MLB system in two states where it was heretofore absent: South Carolina and Mississippi, and it adds Florida as well for those who consider the Caribbean League an aberration. With those additions, every state east of the Mississippi River has a team in the MLB, AAA, AA, or A levels. One can already travel the Victory Highway from New York to San Francisco and never stray far from baseball, with the Nevada portion the only state unable to offer high-quality games.

Beyond the wide Pacific, we will also be able to offer coverage of games and leagues thanks to the interests of far-off stringers. We will be able to give you results of "The Big Six" league, offering the finest baseball being played in Japan today. We have also agreed to provide coverage of the Manila Bay League as a tribute to the fine folks serving in our military and the military of our close Philippine allies who play in that league. Even though we don't imagine they'll ever play in the Polo Grounds or Comiskey Park², we're happy to include them. 

Remaining on the topic of ballparks, we can look forward to play in two new stadia in 1924: the new Buffalo Baseball Park, and Spiller Park in Atlanta, which replaces Ponce de Leon Park. These come on the heels of 1923's new parks for the Colonels, the Packers and the Yankees, and rumors of more ballparks on the horizon from Los Angeles to Dallas to Toronto.

We return to both 1924 and the Yankees presently, however. The Ruling House of the American League find themselves in a position similar to two years ago at this time, and perhaps five years ago as well--exceedingly well-positioned for yet another pennant but on the wrong end of a thrilling, 7-game World Series and thus unable to fully claim honors as 1923's Best Club.  In 1922, they responded by gutting out a win in one of the greatest pennant races we have ever seen, and went on to make Brooklyn a speed bump. In 1919, they fell back to second place as a resurgent Red Sox team took the pennant.   As winners of the AL by 28 games, one can hardly imagine a competitor challenging them for the league championship, but stranger things have happened, and they perhaps used up some of that margin by trading away popular infielder Dobie Moore for veteran pitcher Jose Mendez in an effort to shore up their bullpen³. But they remain stocked with talent and more likely to leave great players on the bench than be lacking them. How manager Rivkin will juggle Cobb, Williams, Faber, and Baker when Goslin, Arlett, Pennock, and Traynor are ready to play every day is yet to be seen. 

For now, though, that question sits on the other end of  Spring Training. So make sure you're tied in for what's sure to be a great season!

1. This is correct, I do intend to affilliate the teams either in 1925 or 1926, and ideally the expansion teams of 1927/1928 will just inherit the rosters of those teams (and then do whatever with them). 

2. They will never play in those parks, no. I've set those leagues to have fictional players and I'm not allowing fictional players to come to the MLB. In principle, they also shouldn't be on the A, AA, or AAA levels. 

3. OK, good guess by the writer, but wrong. I wouldn't pick up a 38-year-old reliever, but Tony Lazzeri was being offered, and I'm already trying to make sure as much as I can that the Yankees are competitive if not dominant in the late 20s/early-mid 30s. 

Your Alt-1923 World Series Champions

 

Really, I should stop making predictions because they're always wrong.  It took the full seven games, but the New York Giants emerged triumphant in what would likely be considered one of the best World Series up to this point and also one of the most shocking. The 1923 Yankees, winners of a jaw-dropping 121 games during the regular season just couldn't get it done. They dropped the first two at home, came back to win the middle three at the Polo Grounds, and then dropped the last two at home again. Three of the Yankees losses were by one run. 

The Yankees' pitching, a strength all year, let them down. Vance had two clunkers and one good game. Faber had a great Game 3 and was gutting his way through Game 6 when injury forced him out. Mogridge blew a save in Game 7 and took the loss. 

That is not to say the Giants didn't earn their win, in that OOTP way. Torriente followed up his record-breaking season by hitting 5 home runs in the World Series for another record and the World Series MVP. High Pockets Kelly had 13 hits and ended at .406. Bucky Harris had several big hits and Lewis Hampton hit a grand slam in the 1st inning of Game 7 that threatened to end things right there before the Yankees fought back. 

From a Doylist point of view, this was something of a bullshit result. From a Watsonian one it's consistent with 1906 and 1914 (to name two World Series) where heavily favored teams were beaten. And indeed, the Watsonian point of view might continue to question whether the NL is simply a better league--the Yankees didn't get here by beating up on two terrible teams but they dominated everybody. In their four consecutive World Series appearances, the Yankees are 2-2, and if you add 1918 they're 2-3. I'd think they were favored in at least four of those five. 

But that's why we play the games, I suppose. The Yankees _still_ haven't won back-to-back championships, and it'll take until the end of 1925 at the earliest for them to do so. I think this team still has a way to go in its current championship window (especially since I have a bunch of early-30s stars on the team already), but I do wonder whether there'd be a bit of a whiff of disappointment around the team. The real-life Giants won four consecutive pennants 1921-1924, but went 2-2. Were people disappointed in them?

In any case, the Alt-1923 Giants have done something no other team was able to do this year:  win a season series against the New York Yankees.

Alt-1923 World Series Preview

 

OK, I hit a lot of points in that last, long post. Let me see if I can keep this relatively concise...

On paper, the Yankees should wipe out the Giants. The Giants had a great year and won 96 games, but the Yankees played at a 99-win pace against the AL team they did worse against, and were at a 108- or 117-win pace against most teams. So, let's try to look at whether I'm overlooking anything that might indicate we're underestimating the Giants.

Team Stats Comparison:  I talked about how the Yankees and Giants fared in their own leagues, but let's go one level (or maybe two levels) deeper and try to avoid the Rustlers Effect that I fell victim to in 1921. AL teams had a road ERA of 4.53 and a road OPS of .719.  Visitors to Yankee Stadium had an ERA of 7.36 and OPS of .888.  AL road teams not facing the Yankees had an ERA of 4.23.   The Yankees had a road ERA of 3.79, nearly a half-run better. If we do this for the Giants: NL teams had a road ERA of 3.76 and a road OPS of .724. Visitors to the Polo Grounds had an ERA of 4.46 and an OPS of 0.777.  NL road teams not facing the Giants had an ERA of 3.69. The Giants themselves had a road ERA of 3.90. Maybe not demonstrably worse, but certainly not demonstrably better.

The flip side (or maybe it's the same side, actually) is runs per game by the offense. AL teams scored 4.64 runs per road game. The Yankees scored 5.68 runs per road game. Non-Yankee teams scored 4.70 runs per road game not involving the Yankees. So the Yanks scored a full run per game more. NL road teams scored 4.46 R/G, the Giants scored 4.67 R/G on the road. Non-Giants teams scored 4.49 runs per game vs. non-Giants opponents. Here the Giants are 0.2 runs per game better than average, which pales compared to the Yankees.

Individual Difference-Makers: Cristóbal Torriente turned in one of the greatest offensive seasons we've seen in this league, setting the single-season record for home runs and finishing with an OPS+ of 168 and just shy of 7 WAR. He's only 3rd in WAR among World Series participants, though--his teammate Marty McManus outpaced him based on his defense (and a good offensive year too) and Harry Heilmann led all other Yankees and Giants this year with a WAR of 7.5. 

Nevertheless, Torriente is the big name and, I think, the best player at the Series. In contrast to most of the World Series the Yankees have been in, the top players by WAR are dominated by the NL team--Heilmann is the only Yankee in the top 4, with Ken Williams following Torriente before a  string of 6 Yankees in a row round out the top 10.  Looking at OPS+ and deciding on an arbitrary 200 PA (since so many contributing Yankees were part-timers or injury replacements),  Torriente leads the group, with Heilmann and Ken Williams following, the injured Charleston and Collins following them, and then Cobb, Cy Williams, Bullet Rogan, and McManus all in a virtual tie at 120. 

Getting into the weeds a bit more, Torriente seems to have a reverse split and fare better against lefties than righties, while Ken Williams has a normal split. 

If we go to pitching, Vance is pretty clearly the best on either team, both in terms of WAR and ERA+. Flame Delhi, the Giants' ace, is closer to Vance than one might think given that he was "only" 22-11. Vance had a good FIP (again, with Delhi surprisingly close!), but it was the Yankees relief corps who led the way there, with Ruether, Mogridge, and Curry all besting Vance while pitching 30+ innings. Mogridge also had a better ERA+ and had a sneaky-good year out of the pen, including a league-leading 13 saves.

Other than Delhi, the Giants' pitchers are not quite so impressive. Sanders, Hampton, and Hall are currently listed as the starters for Games 2-4 (though that could change), and the Yankees starters (Rixey and Faber with Vance in a 3-man rotation, pending how things go) match up well or better. 

A Watsonian Word:  The city of New York would no doubt be alive with excitement, even in comparison to last season's Robins-Yankees contest. The Giants are still in a lot of ways the more prestigious, better-rooted team, and they drew nearly as many fans as the Yankees did (and brought in rather more revenue). There's more fan interest for the Giants. Can the Yankees keep it together with the injuries and perhaps less urgency than a Giants team that hasn't made the World Series since 1913 and hasn't won one since 1905?  Or will the chance to match the Rustlers' record with a third consecutive championship and the drive to finish off a dream season be more than enough to carry the talented pinstriped crew to victory?

I'll also note that two players from that 1913 Giants squad are on the team for the 1923 Series: Art Fletcher, who's been in New York the entire time, and Milt Stock, who's returned after time on other teams. 

Prediction: I tried to talk myself out of a Yankees victory being inevitable, but I can't. Things happen, the Yankees could have a few bad games at an unlucky time.  But I think by far the likeliest outcome is a Yankees win.  I'll say 5 games to be conservative, but a sweep wouldn't surprise me at all.

Alt-1923: Season Recap!

 

It's my intention to write a World Series preview in the next day or two, but I do feel like it's worth writing something separate (if only in bullet form) for the season that just ended.  So as not to bury the lede, the Yankees had a historically good season and ran away with the AL pennant, and will be facing their former landlords, the New York Giants, in the World Series.

• The Yankees finished with a completely crazy 121-41 record, good for a .746 winning percentage. This smashes their own 115-win record from 1920 and the Cubs' 116 wins in 1906, though the latter team still holds the record for winning percentage (.763).  The Yankees had 116 wins through 154 games, but the Cubs only played 152 in 1906 for what that was worth.
• I imagine Ty Cobb getting a bunch of interviews as one of the only (or maybe the only?) still-active players to have some first-hand experience against those Cubs, albeit in the 1907 and 1908 World Series rather than 1906. 
• The Yankees did this despite some really potentially devastating injuries--they only had Oscar Charleston for 58 games in 1923, lost Ty Cobb for about a month, and lost Eddie Collins and Louis Santop for the season during the same early-September week. The roster is so deep, however, that they didn't really skip a beat in making Terry and Traynor into regulars and shifting Heilmann to the outfield (where he's a much better fielder). 
• How well did they play? They had two different months when they went 22-6 (.785), and neither was their best month--in May they went 24-4 (.857).  Their worst month was April, when they were "only" 16-11 (.592), a 96-win pace.
• They were 1st in basically every offensive category, except extra-base hits (where they were a surprising 6th of 10), strikeouts (which they kept down relative to recent years, perhaps due to Charleston's absence, and only finished 4th), and stolen bases (where they finished 2nd!). 
• Key to their success was their pitching. Dazzy Vance went 30-2, and as a team they finished 1st in ERA and Starters' ERA, WAR for pitchers, hits allowed, walks, strikeouts, and zone rating. They finished 2nd in a lot of other categories, and the only thing they didn't do super-well was suppress home runs (they were 6th). 
• At the team vs. team level, the Yankees wiped out the Red Sox (going 17-1 against them) and Peppers (16-2), but were 13-5 or 12-6 vs. most teams. The worst they did was 11-7 vs. the Packers. 
• As a result of all of this, the Yankees ended up winning the AL by 28 games over the 2nd-place Athletics, with the Packers in 3rd 30 games back. The White Sox brought up the rear, 57-105 and a jaw-dropping 64 games back. 
• As noted, the Yankees have a very deep roster and that led to a balanced lineup. There wasn't an obvious breakout, dominant season from anybody, but the team hit .322 (only 20 qualified hitters in the whole MLB did better, including 5 Yankees as you'd expect), and had a team OPS of .826, which would have placed them #29 among qualified hitters.  Absolutely bananas. 
• The Yankees had the #2, #3, and #4 hitters in batting average (Cobb, Collins, and Heilmann), though Cobb had another rotten September to give the batting crown to Shoeless Joe Jackson.  Those three also were the top 3 in AL OBP, with Collins on top. Of course, he's now out injured for the World Series.
• With Ruth hurt most of the year, the AL MVP race is open for the first time in years. 
• To the extent that there's an obvious MVP candidate on the Yankees to coalesce around, it's probably Heilmann. He's #4 in AL batting average, tops in RBI with 150 (2nd in all-time AL single season history), #2 in AL OBP, #2 in AL SLG, #1 in AL OPS, #1 in AL WAR, #1 in AL runs scored. He had 200+ hits. He even led the AL in Win Probability Added. 
• The other obvious Yankees candidate for MVP is Dazzy Vance, who had the breakout year I've been waiting for since 1916. He had 30 wins (as noted above), led the league in strikeouts, and finished 2nd in ERA just 0.1 run behind Shocker. I was sufficiently paranoid about injuries near the end that he skipped his final start, as did Luque and Faber.
• Going briefly into Watsonian mode, Dobie Moore might get my vote over Heilmann. He took over as the starting 3B and played very well there, moved over to full-time 2B when Collins went down, and was the SS when Peckinpaugh needed a rest. He ended up hitting .339 with 100+ RBI and led the league in triples. Still, he "only" had 4.5 WAR vs. Heilmann's 7.5.
• There aren't any really obvious non-Yankee candidates, either. Joe Hauser of the White Sox led the league in home runs, with Jake Fournier not too far behind, but Heilmann had the better all-around year.
• In the NL, it'll probably be Hornsby for MVP. He led the league in batting average, and was 2nd in HR and RBI. He led the NL in WAR with a completely crazy 9.5. However, Torriente had a historic season and was the first player in history to hit 50+ home runs, setting a new single-season record.
• Torriente also took the lead in career home runs, which was an interesting twist for me. Torriente has a 17-homer lead over Ruth, which might be rather hard for Ruth to make up in the short term. If this year's injuries were the Alt-1915 universe's equivalent of Ruth's 1922 absences, he still has the 1925 equivalent absences to get through. On the other hand, Ruth is one year younger than Torriente, and Ruth hit 448 home runs from 1924-1933, so I think even if he can't do more than inch up on Torriente in coming years he could blow past him if he outlasts him and plays longer...
• Before moving to the NL in a bit more detail, I'll congratulate the Toronto Maple Leafs, Sacramento Senators, Charlotte Hornets, Des Moines Demons, Dayton Ducks and Hartford Whales for winning the championships of their leagues, and in particular note Toronto, Charlotte, and Dayton for winning their level's championships.
• Toronto wasn't as dominant in the IL as the Yankees were in the AL, but they took care of business and reeled in a Mud Hens team that led much of the season. Buzz Arlett won the IL Triple Crown (and set AAA records for HR and RBI in the process, as well as for WAR), and the Leafs beat a Senators team (that ran away with the PCL) in five games. 
• Charlotte has Gehringer, Cochrane, and Dihigo, and swept Des Moines. Baltimore should be hard to beat soon, and they get another high pick in the next draft because the Orioles are still terrible at the MLB level.
• As for the Yankees' opponents in the 1923 World Series, the Giants built a big lead in the NL and basically coasted the last few months--they led Boston and St. Louis by 11.5 games at the end of July, gave back about half of that lead and sat ~5-6 games up over the latter half of August and most of September before padding it a bit at the end.
• The Giants' best month was a 17-8 July, which they followed up with a 12-17 August as their worst month.
• The Giants seem to have been good at everything, but not necessarily great at anything. They were 2nd-3rd in most major offensive categories (but 1st in OPS and wOBA), and 5th-6th in most pitching categories (but 1st in pitching WAR and strikeouts). 

I suppose I should quit here since I'm about to wander off into a World Series Preview. That'll be next!

Alt-1923: Home Stretch

 After a month or so of real-life travels and adventures, I write this on the evening of 31 August 1923, game time. Long story short, most of what I wrote in the last entry is still true and most of what I anticipated has come to pass, but I still feel compelled to capture this moment in game time.

The Yankees have gone 32-12 since the All-Star break, and while they hit a few rougher patches those didn't last terribly long. They're now on a 119-win pace, which would set the MLB record for wins in a season, though they're a bit behind the 1906 Cubs' record win percentage. They have kept up this blistering pace even after losing Oscar Charleston again (he's likely out for the rest of the season, though I guess a return during the World Series isn't totally impossible) and also losing Ty Cobb (a sprained ankle has led him to miss almost all of August, though his return should be imminent).  In the face of these injuries, Heilmann slid out to RF (where he's a much better defender), Terry became the everyday 1B (where he's a better defender than Heilmann), and Rogan became the everyday CF (when he's not pitching), and the Yankees didn't skip a beat.  They've "only" won 2/3 of their games since Cobb went out, but they have increased their lead over the Packers by 2.5 games since then. 

The pennant races in the other leagues are mostly decided, as well. The Giants have a reasonably comfortable 5-game lead over the Cardinals, which the algorithm thinks gives them a 90% chance for the pennant. Sacramento has clinched in the PCL, Charlotte in the Southern League, Hartford in the Eastern League. Toronto has a 4-game lead in the IL with 6 games to go, where it seems all over but the shouting. Des Moines has a 4.5-game lead in the Western League, where there's a little bit more intrigue--the Demons' magic number is 3, but if they can't reduce that to zero in their next three games they'll host Minneapolis for a season-ending series where the Millers could possibly steal the pennant from them. The American Association race seems to be where the remaining drama is--Syracuse visits Dayton for a 3-game series to end the season, with Dayton holding a 1-game lead. 

As far as individual performances, I begin by noting that Babe Ruth has missed almost all of the season with multiple injuries. He's only appeared in 20 games this season, and won't make it to 50 games. Still, because he's Babe Ruth he may very well clear 15 home runs--he already has 6 in 20 games. Nevertheless, for the first time since 1918 the AL MVP race is wide open. I can think of a few Yankees I'd vote for, but I'd probably put Heilmann or Moore as my top choice. Heilmann is on pace to finish with 7.5 WAR, second in the AL behind Johnny Mostil (who's getting a defensive bump).  Heilmann is on pace for 150+ RBI and is 2nd in OPS as well, just a hair behind Joe Hauser. Hauser may be the biggest competition to a Yankee would-be MVP, as he's outhitting Heilmann in most categories. Over in the NL, Rogers Hornsby is very likely to be MVP, on pace for a 10+ WAR season. But it's Cristobal Torriente who's going to be in the record books as he's taken advantage of Ruth's absence to seize first place in the career HR list and is threatening the single-season record as well... 

Alt-1923: All-Star Break

 

We sit at the All-Star Break, with ninety games played and seventy-two more to go. In the American League, the Yankees are playing at a 120-win pace and have a 10.5-game lead over the Kansas City Packers. Over in the NL, the Giants are playing at about a 100-win pace (just a bit worse than the Packers, actually), and have a comfortable 7-game lead over the Rustlers. While crazy things can happen, the pennant races look like they're going to be decided early, if you don't consider them already decided.

The Yankees have been excelling thus far in all aspects of the game. They are first in practically every important offensive category, as usual. They're only 7th in strikeouts, and they're all the way up in 9th in stolen bases--I decided to hand over my offensive strategy to the AI in addition to the baserunning as a way to be a bit more "realistic" or at least period realistic, but mostly as a way to try to deal with the fact that other teams could run on the Yankees pretty regularly, and I could never steal bases even with people and in situations where it should be easy.  

Anyhow, the Yankees are also benefiting from great pitching, and are first in many of those categories as well, including ERA (starters and bullpen), runs allowed, WAR, walks, and strikeouts. This has been the work of a very balanced crew, who were a very good 16-11 in April, and a bananas-good 46-10 between May and June. The team could easily be better, too, since they are 1-5 in extra innings and only 8-10 in one-run games. They're playing a couple of games above their Pythagorean record, but not a bunch. For comparison, the Giants have been better in hitting than pitching, but are pretty good in both. They're playing 6 games above their Pythag, though, and "should" be in a close race with the Rustlers and Cardinals, and even the Pirates. 

With all of this, it's hard to come with anything other than A+ all around for the Pinstripes. Oscar Charleston was hurt and out for several weeks, but the outfield logjam let us handle that without missing a beat. Biz Mackey has largely been a bust so far and went down to Toronto (where he's hitting around .225). Frank Baker's defense has deteriorated to the point that he's not getting many innings in unless it's a blowout. The pitchers don't feel dominant, and it's felt like I've had to go with a lot of quick hooks this year. But the stats don't lie, and they're clearly doing fine. Vance is having the year I was waiting for since 1915. Williams is at/near the league lead in home runs, Cobb is leading the majors in batting average, with Rogan second and Moore 5th. Collins is leading the majors in OBP, with Cobb 2nd and Heilmann and Rogan in the top 8. Heilmann leads the majors in RBI, with him, Moore and Williams 1-2-3 in the AL. Cobb leads the majors in runs scored, with Heilmann, Collins, and Williams 3-4-5 in the majors with only Hornsby breaking up the run. Heilmann, Collins, and Moore are 1-2-4 in the AL in Win Probability Added. So, it's all been pretty dominant. 

Looking at the farm teams, the Maple Leafs roared out for their first 10 games, sputtered for a while, and now find themselves in a 4-team race with Montreal, Worcester, and Toledo. Sacramento, who are Washington's AAA team, has a pretty commanding lead in the PCL. Des Moines and Minneapolis are dueling in the Western League, with other teams not too far behind, and the Pelicans are having their best-ever season and sit above .500, though aren't really threatening to take the Southern League pennant at this point.  Buzz Arlett is playing out of his mind for Toronto and is looking like he's likely to win the Triple Crown, so he'll clearly need to come up to the majors next year. Not that the Yankees have room for him. :\

As for the All-Star Game itself, it will be at Sportsman's Park in St. Louis and hosted by the Browns, who in one of the most Browns-y moments of all time are the only MLB team lacking a representative on the 28-person AL roster (counting the injured and replaced Axel Lindstrom of the Packers). Lou Gehrig, the phenom from Buffalo, led all candidates in voting. Babe Ruth has been down most of the year with a strained medial collateral ligament, and has only made 40 plate appearances, so he won't be playing. We can imagine old-timer Bobby Wallace or past All-Star (and current regular) George Sisler will throw out the first pitch, or something. Despite the Yankees' dominance in the standings, only Heilmann and Williams made the starting 9 for the AL, which is the same as the Tigers and the Senators. Looking at all the players on the active All-Star roster, though, the Yankees put in a good showing: Heilmann and Williams, plus Luque, Vance, Rixey, Santop, Moore, and Cobb. The lack of Rogan is a bit of a snub, but he's listed with pitcher as his primary position and he hasn't been good on the mound this year.

I'll be managing the AL squad since we won the pennant.  I'm 3-0 in All-Star Games, hopefully I can keep that streak going!

Alt-1923 Preview

 

There are just a few days left in Spring Training as I start this post (and they may be over by the time I finish it), and the Yankees are sputtering to a .500 record, as seems typical for ST. The Senators and Pirates are looking like they'll be the Spring Champions, which of course doesn't gain them anything. Before the season starts in earnest I figured I'd look at what's happened since the World Series ended and what I'm expecting (or kind-of expecting) in the simulated days to come!

The Yankees pulled off two big trades--we sent Toronto ace and late-season hero Cliff Bell and Virgil Barnes to the Browns in exchange for Lefty Grove, and sent Ralph Judd and Chili McDaniel to the Senators for Biz Mackey. Both of these were with an eye toward the future--Grove didn't pitch in the majors until 1925 and didn't become LEFTY GROVE until 1926 or 1927. Mackey was one of the premiere Negro League catchers of the late 20's and will hopefully step in when Santop starts feeling his age. 

The biggest trade in general had Heavy Johnson heading from the Rustlers to the Reds in exchange for three players including occasional All-Star Ivey Wingo. The algorithm thinks the Spiders and Giants won the off-season, each improving by 4 wins, while it pegs the Orioles as the biggest losers, with a trade of Joe Boley to the Cardinals accounting for most of the damage. Nevertheless, it seems to me like Baltimore will be making a serious multi-year run for NL dominance soon, with Al Simmons, Kiki Cuyler, Mickey Cochrane, and Martin Dihigo in their lineup.

A quick look at the top performers of real-life 1923 shows why I'm thinking the Yankees are in position for a great year--the WAR leaders across all leagues were Ruth (on the Red Sox here), Luque (on the Yankees), Heilmann (Yankees), Speaker (Boston), and Rogan (Yankees). OPS+ leaders were Ruth, Heavy Johnson (Reds), Candy Jim Taylor (retired), Heilmann, and Mackey (Yankees). For pitching WAR it's Luque, Jimmy Ring (Giants), Urban Shocker (Athletics), Pennock (Yankees), and Howard Ehmke (retired). The top 3 pitchers in win probability added are all on the Yankees. The algorithm loves us. The only question, as usual is where everyone is going to play.

In other news, three new stadiums come into use this Opening Day--Parkway Field for the AAA (and perhaps someday MLB?) Louisville Colonels, Muehlebach Field for the Packers, and Yankee Stadium for the World Champs. The Packers' change takes them from a serious hitters' park to a slight pitchers' park that seriously diminishes home runs (no doubt to Smokey Joe Wood's dismay and Lefty Gervais' delight. Yankee Stadium, meanwhile, is a smidge less homer friendly than the Polo Grounds was, but it will actually boost batting average slightly (cue Cobb and Heilmann eyeing each other with grins).

I'll close with what the algorithm is expecting for the season, with screenshots below. It expects the Yankees to run away with the AL, flirting with the all-time wins record and strongly contrasting with the grind we had in 1922. It sees the Giants with a comfortable win in the NL for their first pennant since 1913. It sees Cobb hitting .390, Ruth hitting 41 home runs, and Cy Williams with 150+ RBI. It also imagines Eppa Rixey winning 30 games, which seems unlikely but I guess not impossible. It also sees Gehrig setting the NL record with Ballplayer Yuna (!!) of Buffalo also hitting 40+. I think Hornsby would be likely to win the NL batting crown with his .374. I guess we'll see!

The Alt-1922 World Series Champions

Are your New York Yankees!

The Yankees defeated the Brooklyn Robins with relative ease, taking the series 4 games to 1. The only blot on the Yankees' record was a Brooklyn walkoff in a see-saw Game 2.  In retrospect, Brooklyn was lucky to avoid a sweep as they were outscored 31-11 in the series. Red Faber went 2-0, Cobb hit .600 to win the MVP, and Cy Williams came back from injury to hit a home run in each of Games 3-5 to set a World Series record.  The Yankees' pitching was the real surprise to me, since I was expecting a rehash of the 1921 World Series (and explicitly expecting 1918 again), but the staff had an ERA of 2.22 compared to Brooklyn's 5.79 (plus 4 unearned runs). The one clunker in the group was Ruether's Game 2 start, which still wasn't unrecoverably bad--5 runs in 5 innings. The relievers did well in that game, too, and the game was won for Brooklyn by an on-fire Casey Stengel more than lost by the relievers or the hitters. Luque and Vance complemented Faber's starts with excellent starts of their own, Vance's a CGSO in the final game.

In the end, the Watsonian description I laid out at the end of the preview post was much closer to the way things played out than the Doylist hard look at the numbers made me expect, which perhaps means I should also write a Watsonian recap. The Yankees just took care of business, and there was really a minimum of drama after Game 2 ended. 

 

So, what now? This is an on-year for the Fall Barnstorming Tour, which will take the teams through a bunch of stadia they haven't played in yet. I'm planning to add an A-level Eastern League, and some of the American Association teams will move there and be replaced by more Rust Belt cities. Grover Cleveland Alexander retired, to my surprise, which solidifies the Barnes and Robinson for Alexander trade as the worst I've ever swung. Baker did not retire, but at the moment I think he's going to be splitting playing time with Moore in 1923. For now, though, I'm just enjoying the glow of being champion. ;) 

Alt-1922 World Series Preview

The Brooklyn (proto-)Dodgers vs. the New York Yankees are in the World Series, just like nature intended. Of course, Yankee Stadium isn't in operation yet, and the Dodgers are still called the Robins. But Casey Stengel will be on hand, about which more below.  This is another case of the Yankees coming in mashing and facing an NL opponent that is all about run prevention. Per recent tradition, the Yankees led the AL in basically every important offensive category, though they were only 3rd in drawing walks. On the other hand, they were up to 9th in stolen bases (half of them were by Oscar Charleston). Pitching-wise, though, things were not good. Rather than a mediocre staff, the Yankees seemed to have a downright bad one this year, finishing 7th in ERA, 7th in runs allowed, 8th in hits allowed, last in strikeouts, and only 7th in defensive efficiency on top of all that. Ick.

The Robins, for their part, were a bit better at batting than the Yankees were at pitching, finishing 4th-6th in the NL in most important categories. On the mound, they were as dominant as the Yankees were at the plate, finishing 1st in basically everything save walks (5th) and strikeouts (7th).  In addition, they led the NL in defensive efficiency and zone rating. These are the kinds of matchups that tend not to go the Yankees' way. 

The Robins were also remarkably consistent--they finished 95-67 for a .586 winning percentage. Their Pythagorean record was 96-66. They played at a .604 pace at home, .567 on the road. They played .590 in 1-run games, .590 vs. lefties and .585 vs. righties. They had a very hot April (19-7) a bad July (11-14) and were pretty consistently getting 15-17 wins and 10-12 losses the other months. 

The Yankees, on the other hand, were very hot and cold. They also had a very hot April, but their May was worse than the Robins' July. They were under .500 in 1-run games. They certainly didn't back in, but they did feel much shakier than it seemed they should have. Some of that could have been injuries--Eddie Collins missed nearly 8 weeks with one thing and another, and Peckinpaugh missed about 10 weeks between a back injury and a knee injury. Losing them in conjunction with playing the bad-fielding Cobb and Heilmann really hurt our overall defense. And then Cobb hit under .200 in September. Not good.

 

At this point, I'd typically run through and compare the players and lineups. A cursory look at the stats, though, suggests that that'd just be a re-run of the 1918 preview, with the names changed. Casey Stengel is no Rogers Hornsby, of course, but he is the best player in the Series according to WAR in 1922. The next several players in the series sorted by WAR are all on the Yankees. Sorting by OPS+ tells a similar story and in theory accounts for the park effects.  But Stengel and Wheat are basically the equal of anything the Yankees can put up against them, at least in 1922.  Pitching-wise, as you'd expect, it's all Robins. Sorting by ERA+ shows Lefty Williams at the head of the class, and two of the three expected starters for the Yankees down at league average or worse. But there is some hope for the Pinstripes--the best pitcher on Brooklyn's staff by ERA+, Ballplayer Koch (I'll flame about that another time), went down with a torn UCL in September and is out. The other Brooklyn standouts by ERA+ had very limited usage. Still, every Brooklyn pitcher who's likely to get any innings in was better than practically any Yankees pitcher in ERA+ other than Vance and Ruether.

 

I want the Yankees to win, and if I was in Watsonian mode I'd write here about how this team plays well with their backs against the wall, and the spark of getting Peckinpaugh back and the prospect of getting Cy Williams back starting in Game 2 and the Yankees pitchers having something to prove combined with Ty Cobb's mortification at how bad he was in September will all make a difference. But I'm in Doylist mode here, and  looking at the teams really is giving me 1918 World Series vibes, and the Cardinals beat the Yankees in 5 there. I've gotten better at matchups, and as always anything can happen in a short series, but I'm thinking Brooklyn in 5.  

Faber Leads Yankees to Playoff Victory: An article from the Alt-New York Examiner

 

New York, 2 October 1922: Six months after the 1922 baseball season began, the Yankees finally passed the Red Sox in the standings for good. Nearly 14,000 souls braved a rainy Monday in the Polo Grounds to watch their heroes in pinstripes topple the visitors from Boston 5-2 and secure a berth against the Brooklyn Robins in what's being called "The Subway Series". 

Today's win, like this season's pennant, did not come easily to the Yankees. And, like the season itself, New York spotted Boston an early lead--starter Red Faber ran into trouble in the 2nd when Grover Hartley tripled to deep left center field, driving in Paddy Siglin before Hartley himself was driven in by Harry Hooper. The Yankees started chipping away in the next inning, with the action started by Yankees captain Roger Peckinpaugh, newly returned from a sprained knee that had kept him out for nearly 7 weeks. Peckinpaugh singled, was sacrificed to second base by Faber, and then successfully tested his knee by scoring on a single through the middle by Charleston. New York tied the game the following inning with four consecutive singles by Santop, Cobb, Moore, and Goslin off of Red Sox starter Dutch Leonard, though Leonard stemmed the damage from being much worse. At this juncture, however, the mood in the Polo Grounds turned from pure anxiety to a more excited sense of inevitability, and during their next at-bats in the 5th inning Santop was able to cash in Charleston's leadoff double to give New York the lead. The Yankees tacked on an additional run in the 6th (singles by Moore, Goslin, and Peckinpaugh) and 7th innings (a leadoff double rocketed by Heilmann into deepest right center field in what was likely the hardest hit of the day, with singles by Cobb and Goslin bringing him in), the latter off of Boston reliever Erskine Mayer. 

Meanwhile, Faber held Boston down after the 2nd inning, only allowing four hits through the final 7 shutout frames, and outlasting a 20-minute rain delay. Faber went after the Boston batters all day, keeping Speaker off of the basepaths and keeping the mighty Ruth in the ballpark while facing him with the bases empty. 

After the game, the principals for both teams were by turns emotional and philosophical, though as you might expect the home clubhouse was much more animated and positive in both areas. Red Sox manager Bill Carrigan expressed pride in his team and how they kept pace with the Yankees in the final weeks of the season even when many sportswriters expected them to fold. Boston captain Harry Hooper congratulated the Yankees and expressed gratitude to the Red Sox' fans, over a million of whom attended games at Fenway Park this season. Ruth, never a shrinking violet, was nevertheless subdued compared to his typical demeanor. "This was quite the year" Ruth noted, "I didn't play up to the standard I set for myself the last couple of years, and of course I muffed that easy fly here a few weeks ago. I'll do everything I can to bring another championship home in 1923 to the best fans in baseball."  Up to his standard or no, Ruth will almost certainly win his 4th consecutive MVP award this year. 

As for the Yankees, the joy at winning the pennant was tempered a bit by a sense of unfinished business and memories of last year. Ty Cobb in particular spoke of "avenging last year" in a manner that somewhat belied claims that he'd mellowed since arriving in New York. Charleston, as close as the Yankees come to a Babe Ruth type, said the American League pennant meant more than "a week's worth of coin flips in lousy weather" but readily agreed that a Series win would be "necessary to end the season on a high note" and that it would rankle to "see a championship banner hanging across town". Eddie Collins, heading to his jaw-dropping 9th World Series, praised the Yankees' achievement of winning a third straight pennant and gave particular credit to Dobie Moore, who more than ably filled in for long stretches when either Collins or Peckinpaugh (or both!) were hurt. 

The World Series begins on Thursday in Brooklyn's Ebbets Field. 

Alt-1922: Like 1978 or like 1904?

 

In the end I suppose it was going to always be this--the Yankees and Red Sox are tied after Game 162, and need to play Game 163.  The will do so at the Polo Grounds, with Dutch Leonard facing Red Faber.  Things looked exceedingly dire for the Pinstripes after they dropped a very winnable game to the Athletics in Game 161 while Boston won their 5th in a row, but there was a wild finish the next day.  

New York turned to Dazzy Vance to try and hold down Philadelphia while they then hoped for Cleveland to beat Boston, but Vance was very ineffective in the first few innings and Bullet Rogan let some inherited runners score, and the Yanks were staring at a 8-1 deficit. They fought back and took a 9-8 lead into the 7th, which Pennock then gave back before rookie Cliff Bell threw a couple of clean innings. It took something of a miracle finish including a questionable Philadelphia attempt to cut off a run at home vs. taking the out at first to set up a walkoff 2-RBI double by Goose Goslin and a 12-11 win.

In Cleveland, the Red Sox-Spiders game followed what seemed to be a familiar pattern--the Spiders roughed Ray Collins up early, but a 4-0 lead was not nearly enough and Boston entered the 9th with a 7-4 lead and Collins still on the mound. However, a Ray Chapman triple tied up the game and put the winning run on third with 1 out. Erskine Mayer shut down that threat, and the game stayed deadlocked at 7 until the 13th inning, with repeated instances of Speaker getting to 2nd base followed by Babe Ruth getting intentionally walked and the Spiders escaping.  Finally, Alt-1915 legend Bevo LeBorveau drove in Guy Sturdy with the winning run, and we had our flatfooted tie atop the AL.

The Yankees have done very well against Boston this year, and Faber is 5-0 against them. Leonard is the ace of the Boston staff, but hasn't been quite as good in the second half. In-universe, people might wonder if Faber is cut out for big games, though of course this (should be) random.  In another random in-universe storyline,  Roger Peckinpaugh, the Yankees captain, is apparently healthy enough to play in Game 163 for the first time in over a month. 

Let's see how this goes.  Depending on the outcome I may go for a Watsonian post vs. a Doylist one...

The Final Throes of the Alt-1922 Regular Season

 

It's the morning of 27 September 1922, and the pennant races are as good as I've had since starting this simulation back in 1915. The Yankees cling to a 1/2 game lead over Boston, with a tie in the (all-important) loss column. In the NL, the Giants are up 1 1/2 games over Brooklyn, 2 in the loss column. The Yanks and Robins have 4 games to play, the Red Sox and Giants have 5. The Yankees and Giants are at home the rest of the way, Boston is on the road, Brooklyn has one more away game before finishing at home. 

The story continues to feel like one of missed chances. Since last time, the Yankees dropped as far as 4 games behind Boston before picking up a game somewhere and then sweeping the Sox to pull into a tie. The Yankees have been up as much as a game on Boston, but they can't seem to put them away--our inability to reliably beat bad teams may be our undoing, and we finish the season against bad teams. Boston finishes against the 3rd and 4th place teams in Cleveland and Kansas City, and while they're clearly on the ropes they refuse to go down.

The Giants similarly seem to not quite be able to put the Robins away, though the Robins also aren't quite taking advantage of the Giants' iffy recent play. 

Before closing this short update, I'll congratulate the San Diego Aces, Little World Series champions, and the Richmond Colts, winners of the Governors' Cup. 

Alt-1922: Home Stretch!

 

For starters, The AL won the All-Star Game 4-1 on the strength of a Babe Ruth home run. 

When last we left things, the Yankees were 7 1/2 games back, in third place just behind Newark. The Red Sox, who had gone 20-7 over the previous month, looked like they were cruising to an easy pennant. The defending AL champion Yankees had just gone 14-13 over that same stretch and seemed to be slogging their way to a 2nd place finish if they were lucky, but they were closer to 7th place than 1st.

At the start of play today, 1 September 2022, they are only 1 1/2 games behind Boston and much closer to the Sox than the now-3rd-place Spiders. In theory I should be happy about this, and in practice I am, but I nevertheless can't feel a bit disappointed--as it turns out this has been (or at least felt) less like the Yankees catching fire and the Red Sox coming back to Earth vs. the Yankees playing a bit better and the Red Sox collapsing.

Since 9 July, the Yankees have gone 28-18, a .609 pace that translates to 99 wins over a full season. That's good but far short of what I was speculating might be necessary at the end of the last post. Boston has gone 21-23 over that stretch, though. Cleveland, meanwhile, has gone 29-15, including a 12-game winning streak that's landed them 4 1/2 games out and in third place at this writing. The time since the ASG adds up to over a quarter of the season, so this is no mere blip. The frustration here is that the Yankees had actually caught the Red Sox and have spent a couple of days in first place (by 1/2 game) before dropping back, and could just as easily be up by 2-3 games at this point--they're 5 games off of their Pythag pace. 

Just a quick note about the Yankees' farm teams--the Maple Leafs are also sitting in 2nd place, a game behind Rochester. The Pelicans are in 8th place, per usual, but have played at a .540 pace in the past two months. I did something of a house cleaning for New Orleans rather than letting the AI do its thing, and since then the Pels have been much improved. 

The Yankees led the league in OPS in both July and August, though this was no change from their May-June slump. The pitching did turn around, though--the Yankees gave up 5.4 runs per game in May+June, which dropped to 4.05 in July + August. It's not completely obvious to me what drove that, though it's likely to have been an addition by subtraction thing of getting Alexander out of the starting rotation and really just doing mop-up work until he (hopefully) got himself sorted. I've been using Vance a lot more, driven by his ratings starting to come way up. Faber turned a slow decline into a slow improvement, and Luque has been pretty steady. Ruether and Pennock took Rixey and Alexander's rotation spots and Ruether in particular has pitched well. 

So, we'll see how the final month of Alt-1922 plays out. Rosters expand in about a week, I'm not totally sure who to bring up. If Toronto is still in the hunt for the IL pennant I probably won't bring up anyone yet...

All-Star Break, Alt-1922

It's July 9th, 1922. The All-Star teams have just been announced, with the game scheduled for the 11th at Forbes Field in Pittsburgh. Three Yankees have been selected for the starting nine--Louis Santop, Harry Heilmann, and Ty Cobb. Riggs Stephenson, the 1921 AL Rookie of the Year, will be making the start at second base, Pete Kilduff of the Athletics ran away with the voting for AL shortstop, and the other three position players are all from the Red Sox: Larry Gardner, Tris Speaker, and of course Babe Ruth. Bill Force of the Spiders will be making the start for the AL.  Eight teams have contributed to the 18-man All-Star roster, with the Browns and White Sox unrepresented.  

Rogers Hornsby had the most votes on NL ballots. He's joined by two Giants, two Robins, and two members of the Buffalo Blues (including the shockingly bearded rookie phenom Lou Gehrig). Jimmy Johnston of the Phillies and Heavy Johnson of the Rustlers round out the NL starting nine. Nobody from the Reds or Orioles is on the team. 

The AL leads the series 3 games to 2, with each league undefeated in its home park. That would seem to point to the NL having the advantage, in theory. 

Meanwhile, despite having three All-Stars, the Yankees are in a pretty deep hole. At this writing, with their game finished but the other MLB games yet to occur, they find themselves in 3rd place-- 8 games behind Boston and a game behind Newark. They followed up their terrible 13-16 May with a good-but-not-amazing June (15-11) and are an uninspiring 3-5 in July. They're on a 90-win pace, which could end up putting them 10 or more games back at the end of the season.  The Red Sox, meanwhile, ripped off a 12-game winning streak in June to put themselves very much in the AL driver's seat. 

At first blush, the problem seems to be the pitching. The team sits atop most batting categories, per usual. However, it's down in 8th or 9th place in a lot of the pitching categories including ERA, opponent's batting average, and (shockingly!) home runs allowed.  This last one is particularly dismaying since the Yankees hit so many home runs there wouldn't seem to be that many left for the other teams to hit. 

I think some of this is a park effect, though. The Yankees are only 3rd in OPS in road games and only 6th in OBP. Meanwhile, they're 4th in road ERA and OPS against. So, not terrible?  Meanwhile, they're dead last in home ERA and 9th in OPS against. Nevertheless, the Yanks are a very good 27-13 at home and a really not good 22-26 on the road. 

Looking at individual players, there are a few folks who I think would be drawing the ire of the fans. Most obvious is Pete Alexander, who is looking like he might finish below replacement level and has been relegated to mop-up duty. Meanwhile, the players the Yankees traded to the Phillies for him are doing just fine: Hank Robinson is on track for a 20-win season and Jesse Barnes is doing a perfectly credible league-average job. The pitching staff as a whole is suffering, too--only George Mogridge has an ERA+ higher than 100 (and he's only at 104). Faber's looking at a 4-WAR season, but this has not been a good season for the staff.

Among the batters, Cobb has the most obvious drop off, though that's because he hit an insane and historic .428 in 1921. He still is projecting to 6+ WAR. Heilmann's WAR is projected to be 7.6, which is even better than 1921 when he also hit over .400. Peckinpaugh is also projected at this point to have a better 1922 than 1921. The biggest real drop is Eddie Collins, who's spent a lot of time on the IL. There are some other small drops among the hitters, but this seems to be on the pitchers.

Once the All-Star break is over, there will be about 74 games left. Winning 2/3 of them will get the Yankees to 98 wins, which seems unlikely to be enough without the Red Sox cooperating. Winning 3/4 would get the Yankees to about 104 wins, which could be enough but might not be. We'll have to see if I can get the Yankees going in the second half or if it'll be an October 1922 spent listening to baseball on the wireless.

Alt-1922 at the start of June

 

It's the start of play on 1 June 1922. The Yankees have played 54 games, placing them at the one-third mark of the season, and they find themselves 31-23, tied for 2nd place with the surprising Washington Senators and a game behind the not-surprising Boston Red Sox. I suspect this would be considered a bit of a dismaying season by Yankee fans, though--after a very hot 18-7 start to the year, they went 13-16 in May. I can't honestly remember the last time they were that far under .500 for a full month. It feels like they really earned that bad month, too--as is typically the case when they hit a rough patch, it was the pitching that's been letting down the Yankees. Red Faber has lost two games where he had a 4-run lead in the 9th. Grover Cleveland Alexander, the big addition of the off-season, has been a bust so far and is relegated to the bullpen. There've also been some injuries, with Peckinpaugh out for a while and Eddie Collins spending a long time on the IL (he's still there). But Dobie Moore seems to be doing fine enough. Charleston is a very streaky player, whether or not that's actual or just how it feels, and he hit a very cold streak.  Looking at the statistics, the Yanks are scoring nearly a run per game more than the average AL team, and are giving up about the league average of runs per game. On the whole, the team isn't in terrible shape, and it's not like they can't win the pennant without catching fire on the way, but fans would be excused for not seeing the juggernauts that played in 1918, 1920, and 1921. 

Over in the NL, the Robins have been leading the whole way, with the Giants more or less in 2nd place the whole time. The Robins built a huge lead but have been coming back to the pack of late. Lou Gehrig is basically a shoo-in for RoY if he doesn't get hurt (in this universe, who knows?), but Buffalo is deep in last place. 

As for the farm teams, Toronto is sitting atop a bit of a scrum that's 3-4 games behind league leaders Rochester. They're also playing 4 games below their Pythag projection while Rochester is 2 games better. Toronto is fine, especially given their function as the AAA club.  New Orleans, per usual practice, is in 8th place. Maybe they'll reach .500 one of these days?

Alt-1922 Preview

The 1922 season opener is nigh, and the Yankees were far below .500 during Spring Training. They pulled off one big trade, sending Hank Robinson and Jesse Barnes, neither of whom were getting many innings for the Yanks, to the Phillies in exchange for Grover Cleveland Alexander. Robinson and Barnes made the list of anticipated best pitchers in 1922, as did Frank Allen, who we shipped off at the trade deadline in 1921. Alexander did not make the list. 

Nevertheless, the algorithm thinks that the Yankees are heading for their third consecutive pennant, finishing 2 games ahead of Boston with the Packers again holding down third place. The algorithm thinks it'll be an overall great year for baseball in the Big Apple, actually, predicting a Subway Series against the Giants, with the Robins challenging them for the NL pennant.  The Cinderella Athletics and the World Champion Rustlers both drop back to .500 or so.  I'll post the predictions just below.

I didn't manage (most of) the Spring Training games, though I did watch them all. The team was pretty out of sync, it seemed--the pitching was bad and often the hitting was, too.  On the other hand, the computer made lots of decisions I wouldn't have. And really, it was Spring Training so who cares? Nobody got hurt and presumably everyone got enough at-bats and innings to do OK as the season begins. The roster struggle was real, and I ended up dropping Rube Benton when he refused to be sent down (which, fine) but also sending down Goose Goslin because I didn't want to potentially lose Rube Curry if he wasn't on a major-league roster. I don't particularly have a lot of at-bats ready for Goslin anyhow. I could have sent down Dutch Ruether, but I think I'd rather have him on the big-league roster, too. We'll just have to see how it all goes.

Following up a few posts from Alt-1921 with the remaining real-life Black Sox etc.:

• Chick Gandil is the 2nd-string 1B with the Portland Beavers, the Cubs' AAA farm team
• Eddie Cicotte is 37 years old and a free agent, having been released by the Red Sox after a league-average 1921. This could be the end of the road for him.
• Happy Felsch's game slipped a notch in 1921 from his excellent 1918-1920, but he remains the starting CF and biggest star (and highest-payed player) on the White Sox.
• Joe Jackson missed 6 weeks with a broken rib and only played in 109 games for the Spiders as a result, but he did hit .379 with 21 triples (!). He's got a good shot at 1000 career RBI by the end of the season if he stays healthy, though 2500 hits will be a 1923 milestone at the earliest. Jackson turns 33 during the season and could certainly play until the late 1920s in theory...
• Fred McMullin was unemployed for most of 1921, but signed with Omaha in September where he went 5-15, and then became a free agent again at the end of the season. He is unemployed as Alt-1922 begins.
• Swede Risberg was a free agent for all of 1921, then signed with the New Haven Ravens of the (independent) American Association. He is their backup 2B.
• Buck Weaver: Still retired.
• Lefty Williams had a great 1921, leading the NL in wins (24) and Ks (110), making the All-Star team and finishing 3rd in Cy Young voting. He's hoping to lead the Robins past the Giants (see above) to the pennant.
• Joe Gedeon had a terrible 1921 for the Browns, rather below Replacement Level. He remains, as their backup 2B. 
• Hal Chase has retired after a mostly-inactive 1921 (he had 9 AB for Portland). He doesn't have much of a Hall of Fame case.  He still clings to a few all-time career records for the Buffalo Blues (including hits and total bases) but Austin McHenry will as likely as not pass him in all of those categories in 1922.
• Heinie Zimmerman had his 3rd consecutive season batting below .230 for the White Sox but remains their best option at 3B and their starter (at least vs. RHP) as Alt-1922 starts. 

Your Alt-1921 Champions: The Boston Rustlers

 I thought it would take a miracle, but in the end it just took some of the Yankees' worst traits showing up at some of the worst times. Red Faber went a historically-bad 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA, the Yankees made 3 errors in a crazy Game 1, were shut out for 20 consecutive innings, fought back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 at home...and then made 4 more errors in Game 7 to lose the series. Tillie Walker hit two home runs in Game 1 and another in Game 7 to be named Series MVP. Faber imploded in Game 1 but pitched well in Game 4 to earn the Game 7 start. But in the end, the vaunted Yankees offense couldn't do enough to dig out of the messes the pitchers put the team into in Games 1 and 7, and the pitchers couldn't pitch well enough to make up for the hitters' cold bats in Games 3 and 4. 

Credit to Boston, who did what they had to do. Art Nehf only started one game, but pitched some relief innings and ended up with an ERA of 0.00. The Yankees' pitchers other than Faber did their jobs: Dolf Luque was 2-0 with 18 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, Hendrix was 1-0 with 9 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, Rixey had an ERA of 1.12 in 8 innings (but lost the game), Rogan had an ERA of 2.25 in 8 innings. 

Offensively, Walker was the star, with an OPS+ of 249 and 11 RBI with a .385 AVG. Grimes also hit well for the Rustlers. But other than Santop, who was something of a washout, the Yankees offense did OK. The history books might point to the Yankees' manager (that'd be me) being too sentimental/unthinking in continuing to hand the ball to Faber, but things just kept getting out of hand too quickly. In Game 1, I pulled him before the 1st inning was over, and between Caldwell keeping the fire burning and a bunch of errors, the Yankees could never quite catch up. In Game 7, a bunch of unearned runs again made the difference.

So, what does all this mean for 1922? The Yankees may or may not be considered a dynasty at this point--they've won 3 of 4 pennants but only one World Series. Faber's 1922 in real life was really good, I imagine the rotation will be Faber, Rixey, Luque, and...Rogan? Vance?  There aren't a whole lot of open roster spots on the team. 1922 was Baker's last real-life year, which may or may not be true here. Peckinpaugh was good defensively in real-life 1922 but not necessarily good otherwise. The Yankees don't have a ton of great prospects working their way up, but the Maple Leafs did win the AAA championship.

I guess we'll see how it goes! 

Alt-1921 World Series Preview

 

It will be your defending champion New York Yankees facing the team of the teens, the Boston Rustlers, in the Alt-1921 World Series. For all the angst that gripped the Yankees fanbase and the sensationalism of the sports press, the Yankees won 55 of their last 81 games and ended up winning the pennant by a substantial margin.  The surprising Athletics did finish in 2nd, 9 games back, with the Red Sox limping home in 3rd. I'm not intending to make this a 1921 recap post, so I won't dwell on this stuff now.

The Rustlers' road to the pennant was somewhat less inevitable feeling--they played well in every month but May (when they went 14-13), and while they were at a "mere" 50-31 in their last 81 games, they needed a terrible (11-15) September from Brooklyn to take command of the race. They did steadily build their lead over the last few weeks, and ended up 4 games ahead of the Robins.

This Rustlers team has very few of the key contributors from the 1914-1916 dynasty--only Rabbit Maranville remains from the 1914 OG Miracle team, and he seems to be entering his post-prime years (his OPS+ was the worst since he became a regular in 1913). Tillie Walker was one of the main hitting stars for the largely punchless 1916 champions, and he remains their RBI leader and cleanup hitter at age 34. The Rustlers have always been built on their pitching, though, and the most important holdover is Art Nehf. Nehf won the 1917 and 1920 Cy Young Awards, and again led the NL in ERA this year. Importantly, as we'll get to shortly, he's also a lefty. Nehf was traded to the Giants in 1920 in real life, but here he remains in Boston. 

As noted, the Rustlers are built on pitching. They led the NL in ERA (overall, starters' and bullpen), had the fewest runs allowed (as you'd expect), the fewest walks, lowest opponents' batting average, and also had the highest defensive efficiency and zone rating. What they didn't do was strike people out--they finished dead last in the NL in that category. What they also can't particularly do is hit--they were 9th in the NL in OBP, 7th in SLG (and so, 8th in OPS). They're 3rd in WAR, but I think that's heavily inflated by their defensive work. They're 8th in runs scored, last in walks, tied for 8th in home runs. They're also 8th in stolen bases, perhaps because they don't get on base very much?

The pinstripes are, by comparison, not only much more capable with the bat but also more balanced. They led the AL in every important batting category save walks (2nd), baserunning (2nd), and stolen bases (last). They also struck out more than any other team, but I'll take that. Pitching-wise the Yanks were middle of the pack. They were 5th in ERA and starters' ERA, 3rd in bullpen ERA. They were great at preventing walks, but also didn't strike out many people. They were again mid-pack in defense. 

The Yankees are a _very_ left-handed team, and the usual/best lineup has 6 lefties out of the 8 position players. The bench is a bit more balanced, with Moore and Rogan providing some right-handed pinch-hitting possibilities, but Terry, Pipp, and Goslin would probably be starting players on any other team in the majors rather than serving as left-handed pinch-hitters and defensive subs.  In any case, the Yankees struggled, relatively speaking, against lefties with only a .564 winning percentage (.666 vs. righties).  Interestingly, MLB as a whole only won at a .465 pace vs. lefties compared to .509 vs. righties.  The reason this is important is twofold--the Rustlers' only lefty is Nehf (though maybe they'd be liberal with using him in relief), and this would seem to be a big advantage to the Yankees' big bats. Second, they only have one lefty in their lineup (Alejandro Oms, who might also be their best hitter).  This might keep some of the Yankees' left-handed relievers from seeing much action in the series, but there really aren't many of them--since Pennock is hurt, it's really only Mogridge and Robinson. So, the Yankees can potentially be looking to use Hendrix, Rogan, Caldwell, etc. to get and be able to keep the platoon advantage in big situations. The Rustlers hit well against lefties (.300, with a better than league average OPS!), so having them not face lefties unless strictly necessary seems like a fine plan (even if Eppa Rixey might not approve). 

As far as individual players--in past Yankees-Cardinals matchups I'd noted that Rogers Hornsby was probably the best player on the field, maybe followed by a few Yankees. Here, it just plain looks like the Yankees dominate the discussion. Batting-wise, there is no question--the top 7 non-pitchers by WAR are all Yankees, in other words every member of the entire Yankees starting lineup (save Peckinpaugh!) has a  higher WAR than any member of the Rustlers' starting lineup. After the top 4 Rustlers by WAR comes Charlie Blackwell, then two more Rustlers (including their backup catcher), then Peckinpaugh and two more Yankees' bench/backup players (Rogan and Moore). Twelve players on the two teams had 500+ plate appearances, the 7 Yankees on the list all had higher OPS+ than any of the Rustlers. 

Turning to the pitchers is admittedly murkier. The relationship between pitching WAR and pitching success in OOTP is a bit hard to get my head around, but the top two in that category are Yankees (Rixey and Faber), and while Donahue of the Rustlers is in third he's also injured and out for the season. The next four players on the list are all from Boston. The ERA+ situation for qualifying pitchers favors Boston more, but isn't quite as lopsided as the OPS+ situation. 

OK, so. Prediction. I've seen a lot of things go not-at-all how I'd expect. This is a great Yankees team, if not quite as good as last year's. I've seen this team simply unable to beat bad teams, and shut out unexpectedly. But I feel like the Rustlers will need another miracle. I'll spot them two games that Art Nehf wins, but I think that may be giving them too much credit.  Nevertheless, Yankees in 6. 

EDIT: I realized something I should do is look at the park factors. Allston Grounds, the Rustlers' home park, severely depresses offense. The Polo Grounds severely increases home runs. NL teams slashed at .281/.333/.389/.722 on the road, and Boston did better than average at .293/.340/.403/.743. AL teams on the road hit .284/.336/.400/.736, with the Yankees at a tremendous .309/.363/.453/.815. Pitching-wise, AL road teams had an OPS of .761 and an ERA of 4.23, the Yankees kept opponents to an OPS of. 733 and an ERA of 4.03. For the NL, the matching numbers are .754 and 4.08, with the Rustlers pitching at .729 and 3.60. The road batting OPS for the teams ranks 3rd (!) for Boston and 1st for New York in their leagues, the road pitching OPS ranks 4th for Boston and 3rd for the Yankees. For individuals, Charleston drops down to be pretty average on the road but 6 of the top 7 qualifiers remain Yankees when ranked by OPS+, while only three qualifying pitchers have road ERA+ higher than 100 (Nehf, Schmutz, and Hendrix). Meanwhile, Luque and Barnes have been great on the road, while Blackwell and to some extent Moore also struggled there.