Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Alt-1923: Home Stretch

 After a month or so of real-life travels and adventures, I write this on the evening of 31 August 1923, game time. Long story short, most of what I wrote in the last entry is still true and most of what I anticipated has come to pass, but I still feel compelled to capture this moment in game time.

The Yankees have gone 32-12 since the All-Star break, and while they hit a few rougher patches those didn't last terribly long. They're now on a 119-win pace, which would set the MLB record for wins in a season, though they're a bit behind the 1906 Cubs' record win percentage. They have kept up this blistering pace even after losing Oscar Charleston again (he's likely out for the rest of the season, though I guess a return during the World Series isn't totally impossible) and also losing Ty Cobb (a sprained ankle has led him to miss almost all of August, though his return should be imminent).  In the face of these injuries, Heilmann slid out to RF (where he's a much better defender), Terry became the everyday 1B (where he's a better defender than Heilmann), and Rogan became the everyday CF (when he's not pitching), and the Yankees didn't skip a beat.  They've "only" won 2/3 of their games since Cobb went out, but they have increased their lead over the Packers by 2.5 games since then. 

The pennant races in the other leagues are mostly decided, as well. The Giants have a reasonably comfortable 5-game lead over the Cardinals, which the algorithm thinks gives them a 90% chance for the pennant. Sacramento has clinched in the PCL, Charlotte in the Southern League, Hartford in the Eastern League. Toronto has a 4-game lead in the IL with 6 games to go, where it seems all over but the shouting. Des Moines has a 4.5-game lead in the Western League, where there's a little bit more intrigue--the Demons' magic number is 3, but if they can't reduce that to zero in their next three games they'll host Minneapolis for a season-ending series where the Millers could possibly steal the pennant from them. The American Association race seems to be where the remaining drama is--Syracuse visits Dayton for a 3-game series to end the season, with Dayton holding a 1-game lead. 

As far as individual performances, I begin by noting that Babe Ruth has missed almost all of the season with multiple injuries. He's only appeared in 20 games this season, and won't make it to 50 games. Still, because he's Babe Ruth he may very well clear 15 home runs--he already has 6 in 20 games. Nevertheless, for the first time since 1918 the AL MVP race is wide open. I can think of a few Yankees I'd vote for, but I'd probably put Heilmann or Moore as my top choice. Heilmann is on pace to finish with 7.5 WAR, second in the AL behind Johnny Mostil (who's getting a defensive bump).  Heilmann is on pace for 150+ RBI and is 2nd in OPS as well, just a hair behind Joe Hauser. Hauser may be the biggest competition to a Yankee would-be MVP, as he's outhitting Heilmann in most categories. Over in the NL, Rogers Hornsby is very likely to be MVP, on pace for a 10+ WAR season. But it's Cristobal Torriente who's going to be in the record books as he's taken advantage of Ruth's absence to seize first place in the career HR list and is threatening the single-season record as well... 

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