Alt-1923: Home Stretch

 After a month or so of real-life travels and adventures, I write this on the evening of 31 August 1923, game time. Long story short, most of what I wrote in the last entry is still true and most of what I anticipated has come to pass, but I still feel compelled to capture this moment in game time.

The Yankees have gone 32-12 since the All-Star break, and while they hit a few rougher patches those didn't last terribly long. They're now on a 119-win pace, which would set the MLB record for wins in a season, though they're a bit behind the 1906 Cubs' record win percentage. They have kept up this blistering pace even after losing Oscar Charleston again (he's likely out for the rest of the season, though I guess a return during the World Series isn't totally impossible) and also losing Ty Cobb (a sprained ankle has led him to miss almost all of August, though his return should be imminent).  In the face of these injuries, Heilmann slid out to RF (where he's a much better defender), Terry became the everyday 1B (where he's a better defender than Heilmann), and Rogan became the everyday CF (when he's not pitching), and the Yankees didn't skip a beat.  They've "only" won 2/3 of their games since Cobb went out, but they have increased their lead over the Packers by 2.5 games since then. 

The pennant races in the other leagues are mostly decided, as well. The Giants have a reasonably comfortable 5-game lead over the Cardinals, which the algorithm thinks gives them a 90% chance for the pennant. Sacramento has clinched in the PCL, Charlotte in the Southern League, Hartford in the Eastern League. Toronto has a 4-game lead in the IL with 6 games to go, where it seems all over but the shouting. Des Moines has a 4.5-game lead in the Western League, where there's a little bit more intrigue--the Demons' magic number is 3, but if they can't reduce that to zero in their next three games they'll host Minneapolis for a season-ending series where the Millers could possibly steal the pennant from them. The American Association race seems to be where the remaining drama is--Syracuse visits Dayton for a 3-game series to end the season, with Dayton holding a 1-game lead. 

As far as individual performances, I begin by noting that Babe Ruth has missed almost all of the season with multiple injuries. He's only appeared in 20 games this season, and won't make it to 50 games. Still, because he's Babe Ruth he may very well clear 15 home runs--he already has 6 in 20 games. Nevertheless, for the first time since 1918 the AL MVP race is wide open. I can think of a few Yankees I'd vote for, but I'd probably put Heilmann or Moore as my top choice. Heilmann is on pace to finish with 7.5 WAR, second in the AL behind Johnny Mostil (who's getting a defensive bump).  Heilmann is on pace for 150+ RBI and is 2nd in OPS as well, just a hair behind Joe Hauser. Hauser may be the biggest competition to a Yankee would-be MVP, as he's outhitting Heilmann in most categories. Over in the NL, Rogers Hornsby is very likely to be MVP, on pace for a 10+ WAR season. But it's Cristobal Torriente who's going to be in the record books as he's taken advantage of Ruth's absence to seize first place in the career HR list and is threatening the single-season record as well... 

Alt-1923: All-Star Break

 

We sit at the All-Star Break, with ninety games played and seventy-two more to go. In the American League, the Yankees are playing at a 120-win pace and have a 10.5-game lead over the Kansas City Packers. Over in the NL, the Giants are playing at about a 100-win pace (just a bit worse than the Packers, actually), and have a comfortable 7-game lead over the Rustlers. While crazy things can happen, the pennant races look like they're going to be decided early, if you don't consider them already decided.

The Yankees have been excelling thus far in all aspects of the game. They are first in practically every important offensive category, as usual. They're only 7th in strikeouts, and they're all the way up in 9th in stolen bases--I decided to hand over my offensive strategy to the AI in addition to the baserunning as a way to be a bit more "realistic" or at least period realistic, but mostly as a way to try to deal with the fact that other teams could run on the Yankees pretty regularly, and I could never steal bases even with people and in situations where it should be easy.  

Anyhow, the Yankees are also benefiting from great pitching, and are first in many of those categories as well, including ERA (starters and bullpen), runs allowed, WAR, walks, and strikeouts. This has been the work of a very balanced crew, who were a very good 16-11 in April, and a bananas-good 46-10 between May and June. The team could easily be better, too, since they are 1-5 in extra innings and only 8-10 in one-run games. They're playing a couple of games above their Pythagorean record, but not a bunch. For comparison, the Giants have been better in hitting than pitching, but are pretty good in both. They're playing 6 games above their Pythag, though, and "should" be in a close race with the Rustlers and Cardinals, and even the Pirates. 

With all of this, it's hard to come with anything other than A+ all around for the Pinstripes. Oscar Charleston was hurt and out for several weeks, but the outfield logjam let us handle that without missing a beat. Biz Mackey has largely been a bust so far and went down to Toronto (where he's hitting around .225). Frank Baker's defense has deteriorated to the point that he's not getting many innings in unless it's a blowout. The pitchers don't feel dominant, and it's felt like I've had to go with a lot of quick hooks this year. But the stats don't lie, and they're clearly doing fine. Vance is having the year I was waiting for since 1915. Williams is at/near the league lead in home runs, Cobb is leading the majors in batting average, with Rogan second and Moore 5th. Collins is leading the majors in OBP, with Cobb 2nd and Heilmann and Rogan in the top 8. Heilmann leads the majors in RBI, with him, Moore and Williams 1-2-3 in the AL. Cobb leads the majors in runs scored, with Heilmann, Collins, and Williams 3-4-5 in the majors with only Hornsby breaking up the run. Heilmann, Collins, and Moore are 1-2-4 in the AL in Win Probability Added. So, it's all been pretty dominant. 

Looking at the farm teams, the Maple Leafs roared out for their first 10 games, sputtered for a while, and now find themselves in a 4-team race with Montreal, Worcester, and Toledo. Sacramento, who are Washington's AAA team, has a pretty commanding lead in the PCL. Des Moines and Minneapolis are dueling in the Western League, with other teams not too far behind, and the Pelicans are having their best-ever season and sit above .500, though aren't really threatening to take the Southern League pennant at this point.  Buzz Arlett is playing out of his mind for Toronto and is looking like he's likely to win the Triple Crown, so he'll clearly need to come up to the majors next year. Not that the Yankees have room for him. :\

As for the All-Star Game itself, it will be at Sportsman's Park in St. Louis and hosted by the Browns, who in one of the most Browns-y moments of all time are the only MLB team lacking a representative on the 28-person AL roster (counting the injured and replaced Axel Lindstrom of the Packers). Lou Gehrig, the phenom from Buffalo, led all candidates in voting. Babe Ruth has been down most of the year with a strained medial collateral ligament, and has only made 40 plate appearances, so he won't be playing. We can imagine old-timer Bobby Wallace or past All-Star (and current regular) George Sisler will throw out the first pitch, or something. Despite the Yankees' dominance in the standings, only Heilmann and Williams made the starting 9 for the AL, which is the same as the Tigers and the Senators. Looking at all the players on the active All-Star roster, though, the Yankees put in a good showing: Heilmann and Williams, plus Luque, Vance, Rixey, Santop, Moore, and Cobb. The lack of Rogan is a bit of a snub, but he's listed with pitcher as his primary position and he hasn't been good on the mound this year.

I'll be managing the AL squad since we won the pennant.  I'm 3-0 in All-Star Games, hopefully I can keep that streak going!

Alt-1923 Preview

 

There are just a few days left in Spring Training as I start this post (and they may be over by the time I finish it), and the Yankees are sputtering to a .500 record, as seems typical for ST. The Senators and Pirates are looking like they'll be the Spring Champions, which of course doesn't gain them anything. Before the season starts in earnest I figured I'd look at what's happened since the World Series ended and what I'm expecting (or kind-of expecting) in the simulated days to come!

The Yankees pulled off two big trades--we sent Toronto ace and late-season hero Cliff Bell and Virgil Barnes to the Browns in exchange for Lefty Grove, and sent Ralph Judd and Chili McDaniel to the Senators for Biz Mackey. Both of these were with an eye toward the future--Grove didn't pitch in the majors until 1925 and didn't become LEFTY GROVE until 1926 or 1927. Mackey was one of the premiere Negro League catchers of the late 20's and will hopefully step in when Santop starts feeling his age. 

The biggest trade in general had Heavy Johnson heading from the Rustlers to the Reds in exchange for three players including occasional All-Star Ivey Wingo. The algorithm thinks the Spiders and Giants won the off-season, each improving by 4 wins, while it pegs the Orioles as the biggest losers, with a trade of Joe Boley to the Cardinals accounting for most of the damage. Nevertheless, it seems to me like Baltimore will be making a serious multi-year run for NL dominance soon, with Al Simmons, Kiki Cuyler, Mickey Cochrane, and Martin Dihigo in their lineup.

A quick look at the top performers of real-life 1923 shows why I'm thinking the Yankees are in position for a great year--the WAR leaders across all leagues were Ruth (on the Red Sox here), Luque (on the Yankees), Heilmann (Yankees), Speaker (Boston), and Rogan (Yankees). OPS+ leaders were Ruth, Heavy Johnson (Reds), Candy Jim Taylor (retired), Heilmann, and Mackey (Yankees). For pitching WAR it's Luque, Jimmy Ring (Giants), Urban Shocker (Athletics), Pennock (Yankees), and Howard Ehmke (retired). The top 3 pitchers in win probability added are all on the Yankees. The algorithm loves us. The only question, as usual is where everyone is going to play.

In other news, three new stadiums come into use this Opening Day--Parkway Field for the AAA (and perhaps someday MLB?) Louisville Colonels, Muehlebach Field for the Packers, and Yankee Stadium for the World Champs. The Packers' change takes them from a serious hitters' park to a slight pitchers' park that seriously diminishes home runs (no doubt to Smokey Joe Wood's dismay and Lefty Gervais' delight. Yankee Stadium, meanwhile, is a smidge less homer friendly than the Polo Grounds was, but it will actually boost batting average slightly (cue Cobb and Heilmann eyeing each other with grins).

I'll close with what the algorithm is expecting for the season, with screenshots below. It expects the Yankees to run away with the AL, flirting with the all-time wins record and strongly contrasting with the grind we had in 1922. It sees the Giants with a comfortable win in the NL for their first pennant since 1913. It sees Cobb hitting .390, Ruth hitting 41 home runs, and Cy Williams with 150+ RBI. It also imagines Eppa Rixey winning 30 games, which seems unlikely but I guess not impossible. It also sees Gehrig setting the NL record with Ballplayer Yuna (!!) of Buffalo also hitting 40+. I think Hornsby would be likely to win the NL batting crown with his .374. I guess we'll see!

The Alt-1922 World Series Champions

Are your New York Yankees!

The Yankees defeated the Brooklyn Robins with relative ease, taking the series 4 games to 1. The only blot on the Yankees' record was a Brooklyn walkoff in a see-saw Game 2.  In retrospect, Brooklyn was lucky to avoid a sweep as they were outscored 31-11 in the series. Red Faber went 2-0, Cobb hit .600 to win the MVP, and Cy Williams came back from injury to hit a home run in each of Games 3-5 to set a World Series record.  The Yankees' pitching was the real surprise to me, since I was expecting a rehash of the 1921 World Series (and explicitly expecting 1918 again), but the staff had an ERA of 2.22 compared to Brooklyn's 5.79 (plus 4 unearned runs). The one clunker in the group was Ruether's Game 2 start, which still wasn't unrecoverably bad--5 runs in 5 innings. The relievers did well in that game, too, and the game was won for Brooklyn by an on-fire Casey Stengel more than lost by the relievers or the hitters. Luque and Vance complemented Faber's starts with excellent starts of their own, Vance's a CGSO in the final game.

In the end, the Watsonian description I laid out at the end of the preview post was much closer to the way things played out than the Doylist hard look at the numbers made me expect, which perhaps means I should also write a Watsonian recap. The Yankees just took care of business, and there was really a minimum of drama after Game 2 ended. 

 

So, what now? This is an on-year for the Fall Barnstorming Tour, which will take the teams through a bunch of stadia they haven't played in yet. I'm planning to add an A-level Eastern League, and some of the American Association teams will move there and be replaced by more Rust Belt cities. Grover Cleveland Alexander retired, to my surprise, which solidifies the Barnes and Robinson for Alexander trade as the worst I've ever swung. Baker did not retire, but at the moment I think he's going to be splitting playing time with Moore in 1923. For now, though, I'm just enjoying the glow of being champion. ;) 

Alt-1922 World Series Preview

The Brooklyn (proto-)Dodgers vs. the New York Yankees are in the World Series, just like nature intended. Of course, Yankee Stadium isn't in operation yet, and the Dodgers are still called the Robins. But Casey Stengel will be on hand, about which more below.  This is another case of the Yankees coming in mashing and facing an NL opponent that is all about run prevention. Per recent tradition, the Yankees led the AL in basically every important offensive category, though they were only 3rd in drawing walks. On the other hand, they were up to 9th in stolen bases (half of them were by Oscar Charleston). Pitching-wise, though, things were not good. Rather than a mediocre staff, the Yankees seemed to have a downright bad one this year, finishing 7th in ERA, 7th in runs allowed, 8th in hits allowed, last in strikeouts, and only 7th in defensive efficiency on top of all that. Ick.

The Robins, for their part, were a bit better at batting than the Yankees were at pitching, finishing 4th-6th in the NL in most important categories. On the mound, they were as dominant as the Yankees were at the plate, finishing 1st in basically everything save walks (5th) and strikeouts (7th).  In addition, they led the NL in defensive efficiency and zone rating. These are the kinds of matchups that tend not to go the Yankees' way. 

The Robins were also remarkably consistent--they finished 95-67 for a .586 winning percentage. Their Pythagorean record was 96-66. They played at a .604 pace at home, .567 on the road. They played .590 in 1-run games, .590 vs. lefties and .585 vs. righties. They had a very hot April (19-7) a bad July (11-14) and were pretty consistently getting 15-17 wins and 10-12 losses the other months. 

The Yankees, on the other hand, were very hot and cold. They also had a very hot April, but their May was worse than the Robins' July. They were under .500 in 1-run games. They certainly didn't back in, but they did feel much shakier than it seemed they should have. Some of that could have been injuries--Eddie Collins missed nearly 8 weeks with one thing and another, and Peckinpaugh missed about 10 weeks between a back injury and a knee injury. Losing them in conjunction with playing the bad-fielding Cobb and Heilmann really hurt our overall defense. And then Cobb hit under .200 in September. Not good.

 

At this point, I'd typically run through and compare the players and lineups. A cursory look at the stats, though, suggests that that'd just be a re-run of the 1918 preview, with the names changed. Casey Stengel is no Rogers Hornsby, of course, but he is the best player in the Series according to WAR in 1922. The next several players in the series sorted by WAR are all on the Yankees. Sorting by OPS+ tells a similar story and in theory accounts for the park effects.  But Stengel and Wheat are basically the equal of anything the Yankees can put up against them, at least in 1922.  Pitching-wise, as you'd expect, it's all Robins. Sorting by ERA+ shows Lefty Williams at the head of the class, and two of the three expected starters for the Yankees down at league average or worse. But there is some hope for the Pinstripes--the best pitcher on Brooklyn's staff by ERA+, Ballplayer Koch (I'll flame about that another time), went down with a torn UCL in September and is out. The other Brooklyn standouts by ERA+ had very limited usage. Still, every Brooklyn pitcher who's likely to get any innings in was better than practically any Yankees pitcher in ERA+ other than Vance and Ruether.

 

I want the Yankees to win, and if I was in Watsonian mode I'd write here about how this team plays well with their backs against the wall, and the spark of getting Peckinpaugh back and the prospect of getting Cy Williams back starting in Game 2 and the Yankees pitchers having something to prove combined with Ty Cobb's mortification at how bad he was in September will all make a difference. But I'm in Doylist mode here, and  looking at the teams really is giving me 1918 World Series vibes, and the Cardinals beat the Yankees in 5 there. I've gotten better at matchups, and as always anything can happen in a short series, but I'm thinking Brooklyn in 5.  

Faber Leads Yankees to Playoff Victory: An article from the Alt-New York Examiner

 

New York, 2 October 1922: Six months after the 1922 baseball season began, the Yankees finally passed the Red Sox in the standings for good. Nearly 14,000 souls braved a rainy Monday in the Polo Grounds to watch their heroes in pinstripes topple the visitors from Boston 5-2 and secure a berth against the Brooklyn Robins in what's being called "The Subway Series". 

Today's win, like this season's pennant, did not come easily to the Yankees. And, like the season itself, New York spotted Boston an early lead--starter Red Faber ran into trouble in the 2nd when Grover Hartley tripled to deep left center field, driving in Paddy Siglin before Hartley himself was driven in by Harry Hooper. The Yankees started chipping away in the next inning, with the action started by Yankees captain Roger Peckinpaugh, newly returned from a sprained knee that had kept him out for nearly 7 weeks. Peckinpaugh singled, was sacrificed to second base by Faber, and then successfully tested his knee by scoring on a single through the middle by Charleston. New York tied the game the following inning with four consecutive singles by Santop, Cobb, Moore, and Goslin off of Red Sox starter Dutch Leonard, though Leonard stemmed the damage from being much worse. At this juncture, however, the mood in the Polo Grounds turned from pure anxiety to a more excited sense of inevitability, and during their next at-bats in the 5th inning Santop was able to cash in Charleston's leadoff double to give New York the lead. The Yankees tacked on an additional run in the 6th (singles by Moore, Goslin, and Peckinpaugh) and 7th innings (a leadoff double rocketed by Heilmann into deepest right center field in what was likely the hardest hit of the day, with singles by Cobb and Goslin bringing him in), the latter off of Boston reliever Erskine Mayer. 

Meanwhile, Faber held Boston down after the 2nd inning, only allowing four hits through the final 7 shutout frames, and outlasting a 20-minute rain delay. Faber went after the Boston batters all day, keeping Speaker off of the basepaths and keeping the mighty Ruth in the ballpark while facing him with the bases empty. 

After the game, the principals for both teams were by turns emotional and philosophical, though as you might expect the home clubhouse was much more animated and positive in both areas. Red Sox manager Bill Carrigan expressed pride in his team and how they kept pace with the Yankees in the final weeks of the season even when many sportswriters expected them to fold. Boston captain Harry Hooper congratulated the Yankees and expressed gratitude to the Red Sox' fans, over a million of whom attended games at Fenway Park this season. Ruth, never a shrinking violet, was nevertheless subdued compared to his typical demeanor. "This was quite the year" Ruth noted, "I didn't play up to the standard I set for myself the last couple of years, and of course I muffed that easy fly here a few weeks ago. I'll do everything I can to bring another championship home in 1923 to the best fans in baseball."  Up to his standard or no, Ruth will almost certainly win his 4th consecutive MVP award this year. 

As for the Yankees, the joy at winning the pennant was tempered a bit by a sense of unfinished business and memories of last year. Ty Cobb in particular spoke of "avenging last year" in a manner that somewhat belied claims that he'd mellowed since arriving in New York. Charleston, as close as the Yankees come to a Babe Ruth type, said the American League pennant meant more than "a week's worth of coin flips in lousy weather" but readily agreed that a Series win would be "necessary to end the season on a high note" and that it would rankle to "see a championship banner hanging across town". Eddie Collins, heading to his jaw-dropping 9th World Series, praised the Yankees' achievement of winning a third straight pennant and gave particular credit to Dobie Moore, who more than ably filled in for long stretches when either Collins or Peckinpaugh (or both!) were hurt. 

The World Series begins on Thursday in Brooklyn's Ebbets Field. 

Alt-1922: Like 1978 or like 1904?

 

In the end I suppose it was going to always be this--the Yankees and Red Sox are tied after Game 162, and need to play Game 163.  The will do so at the Polo Grounds, with Dutch Leonard facing Red Faber.  Things looked exceedingly dire for the Pinstripes after they dropped a very winnable game to the Athletics in Game 161 while Boston won their 5th in a row, but there was a wild finish the next day.  

New York turned to Dazzy Vance to try and hold down Philadelphia while they then hoped for Cleveland to beat Boston, but Vance was very ineffective in the first few innings and Bullet Rogan let some inherited runners score, and the Yanks were staring at a 8-1 deficit. They fought back and took a 9-8 lead into the 7th, which Pennock then gave back before rookie Cliff Bell threw a couple of clean innings. It took something of a miracle finish including a questionable Philadelphia attempt to cut off a run at home vs. taking the out at first to set up a walkoff 2-RBI double by Goose Goslin and a 12-11 win.

In Cleveland, the Red Sox-Spiders game followed what seemed to be a familiar pattern--the Spiders roughed Ray Collins up early, but a 4-0 lead was not nearly enough and Boston entered the 9th with a 7-4 lead and Collins still on the mound. However, a Ray Chapman triple tied up the game and put the winning run on third with 1 out. Erskine Mayer shut down that threat, and the game stayed deadlocked at 7 until the 13th inning, with repeated instances of Speaker getting to 2nd base followed by Babe Ruth getting intentionally walked and the Spiders escaping.  Finally, Alt-1915 legend Bevo LeBorveau drove in Guy Sturdy with the winning run, and we had our flatfooted tie atop the AL.

The Yankees have done very well against Boston this year, and Faber is 5-0 against them. Leonard is the ace of the Boston staff, but hasn't been quite as good in the second half. In-universe, people might wonder if Faber is cut out for big games, though of course this (should be) random.  In another random in-universe storyline,  Roger Peckinpaugh, the Yankees captain, is apparently healthy enough to play in Game 163 for the first time in over a month. 

Let's see how this goes.  Depending on the outcome I may go for a Watsonian post vs. a Doylist one...

The Final Throes of the Alt-1922 Regular Season

 

It's the morning of 27 September 1922, and the pennant races are as good as I've had since starting this simulation back in 1915. The Yankees cling to a 1/2 game lead over Boston, with a tie in the (all-important) loss column. In the NL, the Giants are up 1 1/2 games over Brooklyn, 2 in the loss column. The Yanks and Robins have 4 games to play, the Red Sox and Giants have 5. The Yankees and Giants are at home the rest of the way, Boston is on the road, Brooklyn has one more away game before finishing at home. 

The story continues to feel like one of missed chances. Since last time, the Yankees dropped as far as 4 games behind Boston before picking up a game somewhere and then sweeping the Sox to pull into a tie. The Yankees have been up as much as a game on Boston, but they can't seem to put them away--our inability to reliably beat bad teams may be our undoing, and we finish the season against bad teams. Boston finishes against the 3rd and 4th place teams in Cleveland and Kansas City, and while they're clearly on the ropes they refuse to go down.

The Giants similarly seem to not quite be able to put the Robins away, though the Robins also aren't quite taking advantage of the Giants' iffy recent play. 

Before closing this short update, I'll congratulate the San Diego Aces, Little World Series champions, and the Richmond Colts, winners of the Governors' Cup. 

Alt-1922: Home Stretch!

 

For starters, The AL won the All-Star Game 4-1 on the strength of a Babe Ruth home run. 

When last we left things, the Yankees were 7 1/2 games back, in third place just behind Newark. The Red Sox, who had gone 20-7 over the previous month, looked like they were cruising to an easy pennant. The defending AL champion Yankees had just gone 14-13 over that same stretch and seemed to be slogging their way to a 2nd place finish if they were lucky, but they were closer to 7th place than 1st.

At the start of play today, 1 September 2022, they are only 1 1/2 games behind Boston and much closer to the Sox than the now-3rd-place Spiders. In theory I should be happy about this, and in practice I am, but I nevertheless can't feel a bit disappointed--as it turns out this has been (or at least felt) less like the Yankees catching fire and the Red Sox coming back to Earth vs. the Yankees playing a bit better and the Red Sox collapsing.

Since 9 July, the Yankees have gone 28-18, a .609 pace that translates to 99 wins over a full season. That's good but far short of what I was speculating might be necessary at the end of the last post. Boston has gone 21-23 over that stretch, though. Cleveland, meanwhile, has gone 29-15, including a 12-game winning streak that's landed them 4 1/2 games out and in third place at this writing. The time since the ASG adds up to over a quarter of the season, so this is no mere blip. The frustration here is that the Yankees had actually caught the Red Sox and have spent a couple of days in first place (by 1/2 game) before dropping back, and could just as easily be up by 2-3 games at this point--they're 5 games off of their Pythag pace. 

Just a quick note about the Yankees' farm teams--the Maple Leafs are also sitting in 2nd place, a game behind Rochester. The Pelicans are in 8th place, per usual, but have played at a .540 pace in the past two months. I did something of a house cleaning for New Orleans rather than letting the AI do its thing, and since then the Pels have been much improved. 

The Yankees led the league in OPS in both July and August, though this was no change from their May-June slump. The pitching did turn around, though--the Yankees gave up 5.4 runs per game in May+June, which dropped to 4.05 in July + August. It's not completely obvious to me what drove that, though it's likely to have been an addition by subtraction thing of getting Alexander out of the starting rotation and really just doing mop-up work until he (hopefully) got himself sorted. I've been using Vance a lot more, driven by his ratings starting to come way up. Faber turned a slow decline into a slow improvement, and Luque has been pretty steady. Ruether and Pennock took Rixey and Alexander's rotation spots and Ruether in particular has pitched well. 

So, we'll see how the final month of Alt-1922 plays out. Rosters expand in about a week, I'm not totally sure who to bring up. If Toronto is still in the hunt for the IL pennant I probably won't bring up anyone yet...

All-Star Break, Alt-1922

It's July 9th, 1922. The All-Star teams have just been announced, with the game scheduled for the 11th at Forbes Field in Pittsburgh. Three Yankees have been selected for the starting nine--Louis Santop, Harry Heilmann, and Ty Cobb. Riggs Stephenson, the 1921 AL Rookie of the Year, will be making the start at second base, Pete Kilduff of the Athletics ran away with the voting for AL shortstop, and the other three position players are all from the Red Sox: Larry Gardner, Tris Speaker, and of course Babe Ruth. Bill Force of the Spiders will be making the start for the AL.  Eight teams have contributed to the 18-man All-Star roster, with the Browns and White Sox unrepresented.  

Rogers Hornsby had the most votes on NL ballots. He's joined by two Giants, two Robins, and two members of the Buffalo Blues (including the shockingly bearded rookie phenom Lou Gehrig). Jimmy Johnston of the Phillies and Heavy Johnson of the Rustlers round out the NL starting nine. Nobody from the Reds or Orioles is on the team. 

The AL leads the series 3 games to 2, with each league undefeated in its home park. That would seem to point to the NL having the advantage, in theory. 

Meanwhile, despite having three All-Stars, the Yankees are in a pretty deep hole. At this writing, with their game finished but the other MLB games yet to occur, they find themselves in 3rd place-- 8 games behind Boston and a game behind Newark. They followed up their terrible 13-16 May with a good-but-not-amazing June (15-11) and are an uninspiring 3-5 in July. They're on a 90-win pace, which could end up putting them 10 or more games back at the end of the season.  The Red Sox, meanwhile, ripped off a 12-game winning streak in June to put themselves very much in the AL driver's seat. 

At first blush, the problem seems to be the pitching. The team sits atop most batting categories, per usual. However, it's down in 8th or 9th place in a lot of the pitching categories including ERA, opponent's batting average, and (shockingly!) home runs allowed.  This last one is particularly dismaying since the Yankees hit so many home runs there wouldn't seem to be that many left for the other teams to hit. 

I think some of this is a park effect, though. The Yankees are only 3rd in OPS in road games and only 6th in OBP. Meanwhile, they're 4th in road ERA and OPS against. So, not terrible?  Meanwhile, they're dead last in home ERA and 9th in OPS against. Nevertheless, the Yanks are a very good 27-13 at home and a really not good 22-26 on the road. 

Looking at individual players, there are a few folks who I think would be drawing the ire of the fans. Most obvious is Pete Alexander, who is looking like he might finish below replacement level and has been relegated to mop-up duty. Meanwhile, the players the Yankees traded to the Phillies for him are doing just fine: Hank Robinson is on track for a 20-win season and Jesse Barnes is doing a perfectly credible league-average job. The pitching staff as a whole is suffering, too--only George Mogridge has an ERA+ higher than 100 (and he's only at 104). Faber's looking at a 4-WAR season, but this has not been a good season for the staff.

Among the batters, Cobb has the most obvious drop off, though that's because he hit an insane and historic .428 in 1921. He still is projecting to 6+ WAR. Heilmann's WAR is projected to be 7.6, which is even better than 1921 when he also hit over .400. Peckinpaugh is also projected at this point to have a better 1922 than 1921. The biggest real drop is Eddie Collins, who's spent a lot of time on the IL. There are some other small drops among the hitters, but this seems to be on the pitchers.

Once the All-Star break is over, there will be about 74 games left. Winning 2/3 of them will get the Yankees to 98 wins, which seems unlikely to be enough without the Red Sox cooperating. Winning 3/4 would get the Yankees to about 104 wins, which could be enough but might not be. We'll have to see if I can get the Yankees going in the second half or if it'll be an October 1922 spent listening to baseball on the wireless.

Alt-1922 at the start of June

 

It's the start of play on 1 June 1922. The Yankees have played 54 games, placing them at the one-third mark of the season, and they find themselves 31-23, tied for 2nd place with the surprising Washington Senators and a game behind the not-surprising Boston Red Sox. I suspect this would be considered a bit of a dismaying season by Yankee fans, though--after a very hot 18-7 start to the year, they went 13-16 in May. I can't honestly remember the last time they were that far under .500 for a full month. It feels like they really earned that bad month, too--as is typically the case when they hit a rough patch, it was the pitching that's been letting down the Yankees. Red Faber has lost two games where he had a 4-run lead in the 9th. Grover Cleveland Alexander, the big addition of the off-season, has been a bust so far and is relegated to the bullpen. There've also been some injuries, with Peckinpaugh out for a while and Eddie Collins spending a long time on the IL (he's still there). But Dobie Moore seems to be doing fine enough. Charleston is a very streaky player, whether or not that's actual or just how it feels, and he hit a very cold streak.  Looking at the statistics, the Yanks are scoring nearly a run per game more than the average AL team, and are giving up about the league average of runs per game. On the whole, the team isn't in terrible shape, and it's not like they can't win the pennant without catching fire on the way, but fans would be excused for not seeing the juggernauts that played in 1918, 1920, and 1921. 

Over in the NL, the Robins have been leading the whole way, with the Giants more or less in 2nd place the whole time. The Robins built a huge lead but have been coming back to the pack of late. Lou Gehrig is basically a shoo-in for RoY if he doesn't get hurt (in this universe, who knows?), but Buffalo is deep in last place. 

As for the farm teams, Toronto is sitting atop a bit of a scrum that's 3-4 games behind league leaders Rochester. They're also playing 4 games below their Pythag projection while Rochester is 2 games better. Toronto is fine, especially given their function as the AAA club.  New Orleans, per usual practice, is in 8th place. Maybe they'll reach .500 one of these days?

Alt-1922 Preview

The 1922 season opener is nigh, and the Yankees were far below .500 during Spring Training. They pulled off one big trade, sending Hank Robinson and Jesse Barnes, neither of whom were getting many innings for the Yanks, to the Phillies in exchange for Grover Cleveland Alexander. Robinson and Barnes made the list of anticipated best pitchers in 1922, as did Frank Allen, who we shipped off at the trade deadline in 1921. Alexander did not make the list. 

Nevertheless, the algorithm thinks that the Yankees are heading for their third consecutive pennant, finishing 2 games ahead of Boston with the Packers again holding down third place. The algorithm thinks it'll be an overall great year for baseball in the Big Apple, actually, predicting a Subway Series against the Giants, with the Robins challenging them for the NL pennant.  The Cinderella Athletics and the World Champion Rustlers both drop back to .500 or so.  I'll post the predictions just below.

I didn't manage (most of) the Spring Training games, though I did watch them all. The team was pretty out of sync, it seemed--the pitching was bad and often the hitting was, too.  On the other hand, the computer made lots of decisions I wouldn't have. And really, it was Spring Training so who cares? Nobody got hurt and presumably everyone got enough at-bats and innings to do OK as the season begins. The roster struggle was real, and I ended up dropping Rube Benton when he refused to be sent down (which, fine) but also sending down Goose Goslin because I didn't want to potentially lose Rube Curry if he wasn't on a major-league roster. I don't particularly have a lot of at-bats ready for Goslin anyhow. I could have sent down Dutch Ruether, but I think I'd rather have him on the big-league roster, too. We'll just have to see how it all goes.

Following up a few posts from Alt-1921 with the remaining real-life Black Sox etc.:

• Chick Gandil is the 2nd-string 1B with the Portland Beavers, the Cubs' AAA farm team
• Eddie Cicotte is 37 years old and a free agent, having been released by the Red Sox after a league-average 1921. This could be the end of the road for him.
• Happy Felsch's game slipped a notch in 1921 from his excellent 1918-1920, but he remains the starting CF and biggest star (and highest-payed player) on the White Sox.
• Joe Jackson missed 6 weeks with a broken rib and only played in 109 games for the Spiders as a result, but he did hit .379 with 21 triples (!). He's got a good shot at 1000 career RBI by the end of the season if he stays healthy, though 2500 hits will be a 1923 milestone at the earliest. Jackson turns 33 during the season and could certainly play until the late 1920s in theory...
• Fred McMullin was unemployed for most of 1921, but signed with Omaha in September where he went 5-15, and then became a free agent again at the end of the season. He is unemployed as Alt-1922 begins.
• Swede Risberg was a free agent for all of 1921, then signed with the New Haven Ravens of the (independent) American Association. He is their backup 2B.
• Buck Weaver: Still retired.
• Lefty Williams had a great 1921, leading the NL in wins (24) and Ks (110), making the All-Star team and finishing 3rd in Cy Young voting. He's hoping to lead the Robins past the Giants (see above) to the pennant.
• Joe Gedeon had a terrible 1921 for the Browns, rather below Replacement Level. He remains, as their backup 2B. 
• Hal Chase has retired after a mostly-inactive 1921 (he had 9 AB for Portland). He doesn't have much of a Hall of Fame case.  He still clings to a few all-time career records for the Buffalo Blues (including hits and total bases) but Austin McHenry will as likely as not pass him in all of those categories in 1922.
• Heinie Zimmerman had his 3rd consecutive season batting below .230 for the White Sox but remains their best option at 3B and their starter (at least vs. RHP) as Alt-1922 starts. 

Your Alt-1921 Champions: The Boston Rustlers

 I thought it would take a miracle, but in the end it just took some of the Yankees' worst traits showing up at some of the worst times. Red Faber went a historically-bad 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA, the Yankees made 3 errors in a crazy Game 1, were shut out for 20 consecutive innings, fought back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 at home...and then made 4 more errors in Game 7 to lose the series. Tillie Walker hit two home runs in Game 1 and another in Game 7 to be named Series MVP. Faber imploded in Game 1 but pitched well in Game 4 to earn the Game 7 start. But in the end, the vaunted Yankees offense couldn't do enough to dig out of the messes the pitchers put the team into in Games 1 and 7, and the pitchers couldn't pitch well enough to make up for the hitters' cold bats in Games 3 and 4. 

Credit to Boston, who did what they had to do. Art Nehf only started one game, but pitched some relief innings and ended up with an ERA of 0.00. The Yankees' pitchers other than Faber did their jobs: Dolf Luque was 2-0 with 18 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, Hendrix was 1-0 with 9 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, Rixey had an ERA of 1.12 in 8 innings (but lost the game), Rogan had an ERA of 2.25 in 8 innings. 

Offensively, Walker was the star, with an OPS+ of 249 and 11 RBI with a .385 AVG. Grimes also hit well for the Rustlers. But other than Santop, who was something of a washout, the Yankees offense did OK. The history books might point to the Yankees' manager (that'd be me) being too sentimental/unthinking in continuing to hand the ball to Faber, but things just kept getting out of hand too quickly. In Game 1, I pulled him before the 1st inning was over, and between Caldwell keeping the fire burning and a bunch of errors, the Yankees could never quite catch up. In Game 7, a bunch of unearned runs again made the difference.

So, what does all this mean for 1922? The Yankees may or may not be considered a dynasty at this point--they've won 3 of 4 pennants but only one World Series. Faber's 1922 in real life was really good, I imagine the rotation will be Faber, Rixey, Luque, and...Rogan? Vance?  There aren't a whole lot of open roster spots on the team. 1922 was Baker's last real-life year, which may or may not be true here. Peckinpaugh was good defensively in real-life 1922 but not necessarily good otherwise. The Yankees don't have a ton of great prospects working their way up, but the Maple Leafs did win the AAA championship.

I guess we'll see how it goes! 

Alt-1921 World Series Preview

 

It will be your defending champion New York Yankees facing the team of the teens, the Boston Rustlers, in the Alt-1921 World Series. For all the angst that gripped the Yankees fanbase and the sensationalism of the sports press, the Yankees won 55 of their last 81 games and ended up winning the pennant by a substantial margin.  The surprising Athletics did finish in 2nd, 9 games back, with the Red Sox limping home in 3rd. I'm not intending to make this a 1921 recap post, so I won't dwell on this stuff now.

The Rustlers' road to the pennant was somewhat less inevitable feeling--they played well in every month but May (when they went 14-13), and while they were at a "mere" 50-31 in their last 81 games, they needed a terrible (11-15) September from Brooklyn to take command of the race. They did steadily build their lead over the last few weeks, and ended up 4 games ahead of the Robins.

This Rustlers team has very few of the key contributors from the 1914-1916 dynasty--only Rabbit Maranville remains from the 1914 OG Miracle team, and he seems to be entering his post-prime years (his OPS+ was the worst since he became a regular in 1913). Tillie Walker was one of the main hitting stars for the largely punchless 1916 champions, and he remains their RBI leader and cleanup hitter at age 34. The Rustlers have always been built on their pitching, though, and the most important holdover is Art Nehf. Nehf won the 1917 and 1920 Cy Young Awards, and again led the NL in ERA this year. Importantly, as we'll get to shortly, he's also a lefty. Nehf was traded to the Giants in 1920 in real life, but here he remains in Boston. 

As noted, the Rustlers are built on pitching. They led the NL in ERA (overall, starters' and bullpen), had the fewest runs allowed (as you'd expect), the fewest walks, lowest opponents' batting average, and also had the highest defensive efficiency and zone rating. What they didn't do was strike people out--they finished dead last in the NL in that category. What they also can't particularly do is hit--they were 9th in the NL in OBP, 7th in SLG (and so, 8th in OPS). They're 3rd in WAR, but I think that's heavily inflated by their defensive work. They're 8th in runs scored, last in walks, tied for 8th in home runs. They're also 8th in stolen bases, perhaps because they don't get on base very much?

The pinstripes are, by comparison, not only much more capable with the bat but also more balanced. They led the AL in every important batting category save walks (2nd), baserunning (2nd), and stolen bases (last). They also struck out more than any other team, but I'll take that. Pitching-wise the Yanks were middle of the pack. They were 5th in ERA and starters' ERA, 3rd in bullpen ERA. They were great at preventing walks, but also didn't strike out many people. They were again mid-pack in defense. 

The Yankees are a _very_ left-handed team, and the usual/best lineup has 6 lefties out of the 8 position players. The bench is a bit more balanced, with Moore and Rogan providing some right-handed pinch-hitting possibilities, but Terry, Pipp, and Goslin would probably be starting players on any other team in the majors rather than serving as left-handed pinch-hitters and defensive subs.  In any case, the Yankees struggled, relatively speaking, against lefties with only a .564 winning percentage (.666 vs. righties).  Interestingly, MLB as a whole only won at a .465 pace vs. lefties compared to .509 vs. righties.  The reason this is important is twofold--the Rustlers' only lefty is Nehf (though maybe they'd be liberal with using him in relief), and this would seem to be a big advantage to the Yankees' big bats. Second, they only have one lefty in their lineup (Alejandro Oms, who might also be their best hitter).  This might keep some of the Yankees' left-handed relievers from seeing much action in the series, but there really aren't many of them--since Pennock is hurt, it's really only Mogridge and Robinson. So, the Yankees can potentially be looking to use Hendrix, Rogan, Caldwell, etc. to get and be able to keep the platoon advantage in big situations. The Rustlers hit well against lefties (.300, with a better than league average OPS!), so having them not face lefties unless strictly necessary seems like a fine plan (even if Eppa Rixey might not approve). 

As far as individual players--in past Yankees-Cardinals matchups I'd noted that Rogers Hornsby was probably the best player on the field, maybe followed by a few Yankees. Here, it just plain looks like the Yankees dominate the discussion. Batting-wise, there is no question--the top 7 non-pitchers by WAR are all Yankees, in other words every member of the entire Yankees starting lineup (save Peckinpaugh!) has a  higher WAR than any member of the Rustlers' starting lineup. After the top 4 Rustlers by WAR comes Charlie Blackwell, then two more Rustlers (including their backup catcher), then Peckinpaugh and two more Yankees' bench/backup players (Rogan and Moore). Twelve players on the two teams had 500+ plate appearances, the 7 Yankees on the list all had higher OPS+ than any of the Rustlers. 

Turning to the pitchers is admittedly murkier. The relationship between pitching WAR and pitching success in OOTP is a bit hard to get my head around, but the top two in that category are Yankees (Rixey and Faber), and while Donahue of the Rustlers is in third he's also injured and out for the season. The next four players on the list are all from Boston. The ERA+ situation for qualifying pitchers favors Boston more, but isn't quite as lopsided as the OPS+ situation. 

OK, so. Prediction. I've seen a lot of things go not-at-all how I'd expect. This is a great Yankees team, if not quite as good as last year's. I've seen this team simply unable to beat bad teams, and shut out unexpectedly. But I feel like the Rustlers will need another miracle. I'll spot them two games that Art Nehf wins, but I think that may be giving them too much credit.  Nevertheless, Yankees in 6. 

EDIT: I realized something I should do is look at the park factors. Allston Grounds, the Rustlers' home park, severely depresses offense. The Polo Grounds severely increases home runs. NL teams slashed at .281/.333/.389/.722 on the road, and Boston did better than average at .293/.340/.403/.743. AL teams on the road hit .284/.336/.400/.736, with the Yankees at a tremendous .309/.363/.453/.815. Pitching-wise, AL road teams had an OPS of .761 and an ERA of 4.23, the Yankees kept opponents to an OPS of. 733 and an ERA of 4.03. For the NL, the matching numbers are .754 and 4.08, with the Rustlers pitching at .729 and 3.60. The road batting OPS for the teams ranks 3rd (!) for Boston and 1st for New York in their leagues, the road pitching OPS ranks 4th for Boston and 3rd for the Yankees. For individuals, Charleston drops down to be pretty average on the road but 6 of the top 7 qualifiers remain Yankees when ranked by OPS+, while only three qualifying pitchers have road ERA+ higher than 100 (Nehf, Schmutz, and Hendrix). Meanwhile, Luque and Barnes have been great on the road, while Blackwell and to some extent Moore also struggled there.

Alt-1921: Forty games (or so) to go!

 

Since we last checked in, the Yankees' relentless pursuit of Philadelphia has turned into the Athletics' dogged attempt to stay close to New York. The Yankees went 8-1 in the period between my last post and the All-Star Game, including a 2-game sweep of Boston and a series win against the Athletics just before the All-Star Break. That series win left Philadelphia and New York tied, and the All-Star Game found a shorthanded AL deliver a walk-off win to the sellout crowd at Griffith Stadium, as Ty Cobb doubled in Newark's Charlie Hollocher. 

The Bombers have been as far as 1.5 games behind the Athletics since then, but have mostly been in first place (as much as 3 games, currently 2). They sit at 77-44 currently, so have had a 28-12 stretch. That's .700, which is what they were able to do across all of 1920. So, maybe this is sustainable? On the other hand, they've lost to some bad teams when they have lost in this stretch: For instance, they're only 2-3 against the last-place Browns. One quick thought I'll stick here--I think I'm getting penalized (inadvertently) by picking up Negro League players like Blackwell, Moore, and Brown early (and Cannonball Redding, back in the day):  Their stats are treated as AAA or AA stats, so they're not as good players as they should be. Charleston and Rogan are also not as good as they should be, but are so good that they're still standouts. The Negro League players coming into Alt-1921 have their stats treated as MLB, so they're getting boosts relative to the others. That'll eventually even out as more and more new Black ballplayers show up and older ones retire, but for now I think it gives a lot of other teams a boost relative to the Yankees...

The big off-field news is probably the Frank Allen for Dolph Luque trade pulled off at the deadline. I'd had my eye on Luque earlier in the season, but he was dealt to the Spiders before I had decided what to do (and that, in turn, cemented my decision to trade for Rixey).  Allen was exceedingly shaky as our closer, there was no reasonable way to have him supplant someone in the rotation, and while he was only 32 his actual career had ended years earlier so I felt he was on borrowed time (or past it). I don't think missing Allen will mean missing the pennant, and I think having Luque will make 1922-1924 much better for the Yanks. I still definitely have a pitching logjam, which was not necessarily improved by a different trade I swung with Boston to get Mogridge back. 

I'll stick the standings below, I'll note that in the NL the Robins have dropped out of first place (which they've held much of the year) and the Rustlers have stepped up. They're both pretty close, so the race certainly isn't over yet. The Giants are in 3rd, but are are enough back that they're probably not going to be a factor.

Stats-wise, it's another battle between Cobb and Heilmann for the batting title, both have been near .410-.415 for a while.  Cobb was hurt and while he could have played I kept him out of the lineup just in case. He should get enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, barring another injury. Heilmann has been a workhorse and is on pace for 150 or so RBI.  Nevertheless, I expect Ruth to win the MVP again and to set the home run record again.  I'm not sure he'll reach 50, though. He also might not hold the record at the end of the year--Torriente is only two behind him...

Halfway through Alt-1921

 

A long weekend and an itch to play saw me sprint through the second quarter of the season pretty quickly. My pace was probably helped, ironically enough, by the frustrating nature of the first part of that second quarter. When we last checked in, the Yankees were 25-16 (a .610 pace) and 3.5 games behind the A's. They are currently 49-32 (.604) and 3 games back. So, it may seem like they more or less have been treading water, but it is not so!  They hit a very rough patch immediately after the last post which saw them in 4th place 8 games back after 49 games (a 2-6 stretch that left them at 27-22) and after 58 games they were 32-26 and in 4th place, 7.5 games back.  They've gone 17-6 since then to put them more or less where they were last time.  

The way they were losing those games during that 17-game stretch was a maddening reminder of Alt-1916. The pitchers would consistently give up 2-3 runs in the first inning, the Yankees would (often) battle back because their offense can't be held down, and then the relievers would blow it in the 8th or 9th. Sometimes, for variety, the starters would cough it up instead if I decided I couldn't trust the relievers. Thurston's rotation spot went to Dave Brown (who was lighting up Toronto), but Brown stunk and so the spot went to Jesse Barnes. Brown also stunk as a reliever, as did basically all relievers (except Caldwell, who I didn't use much for various reasons).  Brown is back in Toronto (and again lighting it up, as is Thurston).

Whether the pitching staff was just going through a collective slump or I've sorted out who's best in what role, I don't know. Offense is up all over the majors, and 3-4 run innings have been unfolding quickly rather than as a series of station-to-station events. Hendrix has been the hero of the staff, with Faber and Rixey dependable-ish. I may have been focusing too much on WAR for pitchers rather than things like ERA+, but the offense has often been able to save the day. 

In-universe, I've imagined what the reaction to all of this would have been. Gnashing of teeth among Yankees press and fans, presumably. But in the last few weeks, I can imagine the vibe might have changed. It is easy to think that A's fans and the Philadelphia press is nervously watching the Yankees closing ground on them inexorably. The Athletics have won 8 more games than their Pythag would suggest, while the Yankees have won two fewer. Whether that's seen as evidence of a Cinderella season for the A's or  that they're playing over their head may be a matter of optimism vs. pessimism for a fan...

The Athletics probably deserve their own post, but it won't be today. :)

Alt-1921 at the quarter pole

We're 41 games into the Alt-1921 season, and the Yankees are playing at a 100-win pace. Whether that will be good enough to win the pennant, however, is very much an open question. The Yanks are currently sitting in second place, 3.5 games behind the surprising Philadelphia Athletics. Kansas City and Cleveland are pretty close behind New York.  Boston, expected to take the pennant by the AI, languishes in 7th place 10 games back and 4 games under .500.

While they are not in first place at the moment, I certainly wouldn't say the Yankees' title defense has gone "badly". The team's offense is humming along pretty well, and they're 1st in runs scored, hits, and WAR. They're 2nd in home runs because Babe Ruth is on a different and reasonably well-hitting team. Even the pitching, while difficult to watch at times, has ultimately been mid-pack. However, the relief pitching, particularly erstwhile closer/stopper Frank Allen, has been atrocious. The bullpen ERA is 8th in the league, and Allen has had 4 blown saves. Allen is way past his sell-by date, and I've been very tempted to unload him (though the algorithm still loves him).  The flip side of this is that I can't really tell what Philadelphia is doing right--they're mid-pack in most offensive and defensive categories, though their pitching is somewhat better than ours. They are 5 games over their Pythagorean record, so maybe the answer is they're just getting lucky--if everyone were playing at their Pythag, the Yankees would be in first place (if only just). 

I'll quickly turn to the other leagues--Our roommates (the New York Baseball Giants) are leading the NL by a game, after the Rustlers rocketed out to a very fast start. They now sit a game back, with Brooklyn just behind. The Phillies are 2.5 games back, so New York is not the only city dreaming of a Subway Series. The Maple Leafs are in a dogfight with Worcester in the International League, and are currently one game behind the Boosters. Vernon has a healthy lead for this time of year in the PCL. Tulsa and Tri-Cities are tied atop the Western League, with Milwaukee and Wichita just behind. San Antonio leads the Southern League by a half-game over Birmingham, with the 9th-place Crackers only 4 back.  New Orleans has been flirting with but never quite reaching .500 all season. And finally, New Haven leads the new American Association by a game over Hartford and Allentown. 

I'll hold comments about injuries and individual performances until the next post, but I'd be remiss if I didn't note that Harry Heilmann has been absolutely in the zone--he's hitting about .470 after 41 games and has only just had a 36-game hitting streak snapped. He's on pace for 300 hits and 190 RBI. Even if/when regression happens, it'll be (in theory) to a .400 pace since he actually hit .400 or so in reality and hit .392 in Alt-1920...

Alt-1921 Preview

 

It's Opening Day for Alt-1921, so it's time for a quick look forward!  In real 1921, the Yankees won their first pennant and were bested by the New York Giants in the World Series. Here, the Yankees are looking to win their third pennant in four years and repeat as champions, while the Giants haven't been to a World Series since 1913 (I suppose Alt-1913 = 1913 as far as the algorithm is concerned, though there are obviously huge differences in all sorts of things since baseball was integrated in 1915 if not earlier, which is a whole other philosophical/world building rabbit hole).

The algorithm thinks the Yankees will follow up their 115-win season with a 103-win campaign, with them finishing in 2nd place, 5 games behind Boston. 

It sees Heilmann flirting with .400 again, but Ruth with another gargantuan year and presumably an MVP. It sees Eddie Cicotte as a 31-game winner, with Dutch Leonard close behind with 27. No Yankees make the list of predicted best pitchers, though the best hitters list is littered with them.

Over in the NL, it's the Brooklyn Robins who are predicted to come in first place with 97 wins, comfortably ahead of the apparently-resurgent Boston Rustlers. The Orioles are predicted to come in a strong 3rd. The Robins are expected to be led by Zach Wheat and Casey Stengel at the plate, and Burleigh Grimes and Lefty Williams at the bat. The algorithm is bearish on the Cardinals, penciling them in at 85-77. 

Of course, who knows what all this means. Rogers Hornsby is notably absent from the list of predicted top hitters, presumably because he's currently on the IL and not expected to return until May. If he has another MVP-style season, he could get the Cardinals much closer to the top. Similarly, Peckinpaugh is on the IL for the Yankees, and if one added his usual WAR, they might catch Boston.  I guess we'll see.

I discussed where the Black Sox will be starting their Alt-1921, so here's a look at where the top performers of real-1921 by b-WAR will be on Alt-1921 Opening Day:

• Babe Ruth: was famously on the Yankees in real life, but famously remains in Boston here.
• Red Faber: White Sox mainstay is the ace of the Yankees' staff.
• Hornsby: on the Cardinals, as in real life.
• Urban Shocker: on the Browns in reality, is currently on the Athletics (and is basically their ace).
• Bullet Rogan: in segregated reality he was on the KC Monarchs, but he's on the World Champion New York Yankees in Alt-1921. 
• Burleigh Grimes: In real life he didn't get to Brooklyn until 1918, but here he joined the Robins in Alt-1916.

• Carl Mays, one year removed from killing Ray Chapman with a beanball, was on the real-life Yankees. In Alt-1921 he's in Cincinnati as a middle reliever.
• Beauty Bancroft, the NL MVP in Alt-1916 and runner up in each of the following two years, is on the Phillies here. In real life he was traded from the Phillies to the Giants during 1920.
• Sad Sam Jones won 23 games for the real-life Red Sox in 1921, but finds himself sad indeed on the free agent list without a team here in Alt-1921. Cleveland just dropped him today.
• Finally, Jose Leblanc was on the Cuban Stars West in real 1921, Alt-1921 finds him a middle reliever for the White Sox.

Let's see how it goes!

Where are they now: The Black Sox in Alt-1921

 

The baseball world in Alt-1921 did not suffer the Black Sox scandal, and principals and principles remain unshaken. The infamous subjects of Eight Men Out received their bans near the end of the 1920 season, so as Spring Training here in 1921 gets underway I thought I'd see what they're up to in this universe...

• Chick Gandil never made his way off of the Senators, but after a decent 1914-1915 his ability slowly decreased for them, with his playing time following suit. He signed a minor league contract with Newark to start the 1920 season and hit over .400 for their AAA Vancouver club, but had very limited time with the big club. He's been invited to Spring Training for the Peppers, but really isn't anywhere on their depth charts.

• Eddie Cicotte was the biggest name dealt at the 1920 trade deadline, going from the White Sox to the Red Sox. He went 15-2 after the trade to Boston with an ERA under 2, and was the unanimous choice for the 1920 AL Cy Young award. He is arguably the ace of the Red Sox' staff (Dutch Leonard having the only other claim) and seems like he might have a few years left before a comfortable retirement and a reasonable shot at the Hall of Fame.
• Happy Felsch has been the brightest star on the White Sox since their back-to-back pennant winners. He was Rookie of the Year in 1915 and an All-Star in 1919 and is in his prime. He remains on the White Sox and will likely be their leader in WAR.

• Shoeless Joe Jackson never left Cleveland and at age 31 has already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. He led the AL in batting in 1918 and in slugging and OPS in 1917-1918 (with Babe Ruth probably making those the last years he does it). He was the AL MVP in 1916 and runner up in 1917, and was All-Star Game MVP in 1919. He is the career leader in batting average at .366 (one point ahead of Ty Cobb) and is also the career leader in slugging and OPS, though Babe Ruth is likely to debut atop those lists when he reached 3000 PA late in 1921.  Jackson is clearly one of the all-time greats and has a non-zero chance to reach 4000 hits. 
• Fred McMullin broke in with the Buffalo Blues and served as their regular third baseman in 1917. After splitting 1919 between Buffalo and their AAA club in Los Angeles and playing sparingly in Charlotte last year, McMullin finds himself a free agent at the moment.

• Swede Risberg had a decent 1917 as a utility infielder for the Cubs, and has spent the last 3 seasons in the Reds organization but mostly down in AAA Columbus rather than at the MLB level. He's currently second on the Reds' depth chart at first base and the main choice as a defensive replacement there.
• Buck Weaver spent 9 years in the majors, all with the Chicago White Sox and all as a regular. He had a great 1916 as the regular shortstop and earned an All-Star berth for it. He moved to third base for 1917-1918 before going back to shortstop in 1919 and finally first base in 1920. After leading the majors in at-bats and plate appearances in 1920 while hitting a creditable .296, Weaver retired at age 30 in a bit of a surprise move to become a missionary.

• Lefty Williams has been on the Brooklyn Robins since they signed him as a free agent in 1915. While he's led the NL in losses in 1919 and 1920, he also led the NL in strikeouts in 1920 with 117 and was 3rd in wins in 1917. He finished 5th in the NL Cy Young race in 1920 and 8th in 1919. Most strikingly, he's thrown 8 2-hitters, one 1-hitter, and one perfect game. Williams is only a year or so into his prime, and might find himself seen as one of the dominant pitchers of this era.
• Joe Gedeon is on the Browns, doing what he was doing in real life though he took a slightly different path to get here. He's the Browns' top second baseman. 

And as bonus WATN:

• Hal Chase was on the Buffalo Blues in real life, and when the Federal League went belly up he went first to Cincinnati and then the Giants before his career ended in 1919 and nobody was willing to take the infamous game fixer in the wake of the Black Sox scandal. In this universe the Buffalo franchise lived on and he remained the regular first baseman through 1919, with age catching up to him in 1920. He was the league leader in doubles in 1916, and is the Blues franchise leader in most of the counting stats (games, runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI...). He even is still the Yankees franchise leader in hits, though I expect Roger Peckinpaugh to pass him in April and the Harry Heilmann to pass Peckinpaugh before the All-Star Break...
• Heinie Zimmerman was traded from the Cubs to the Yankees during the 1917-1918 offseason in exchange for four players. Zimmerman sparked the Yankees to their first pennant, but got hurt in September and missed the World Series. The Yankees then flipped him to the White Sox in exchange for Eddie Collins. Zimmerman's 1919 and 1920 haven't been nearly as good as his 1917, and he is likely to start 1921 as the backup third baseman for Chicago.