Alt-1926: Season Preview

 

The Automated Boffins Poll (ABF) has been run, the rosters have been trimmed, and the pennants are being stitched. It's time for the Alt-1926 Season Preview.

In the American League, the consensus seems to be that while we have to play the games, the Yankees are overwhelming favorites to repeat (again) and do so big (again). The forecast is for the Yanks to win 116 games, clearing the second-place Packers and Athletics by a full 23-game margin. After New York, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, the Spiders are forecast to come in at 82-80 and everyone else in the league is seen as below .500. As noted in the last post, Cobb and Heilmann are ranked as the top two position players in the AL, with Ruth #3.  Cobb is forecast to hit .398 with 240 hits and 135 RBI, Heilmann to hit .362 with 139 RBI, and Ruth a mere .291 but with 34 HR and 149 RBI. All are expected to have an OPS above .950.  Jack Fournier, the best non-Yankee hitter, is forecast to come in slashing .307/.395/.522 with 29 HR. For all I'd know he'd sneak in as MVP with a performance like that if Cobb/Heilmann/Ruth split the vote. 

On the pitching side, the top four players are seen as Vance, Luque, Grove, and Fitzsimmons. I thought Pennock was on this list, but maybe he dropped when he got hurt? In any case,  Vance/Luque/Grove are expected to combine for a 67-20 record with an ERA of about 3.15. Vance would likely be the Cy Young winner, though it could go to Jessie Haines of the Packers, who's expected to lead the league in wins and put in about 100 more innings than the pampered Yankees starters, who won't get used much in relief. 

So in this universe what should Packers fans or Athletics fans (or Browns fans for that matter) be hoping for? I think anything short of a literal fictional train wreck involving the Yankees' sleeper cars would leave New York competitive for the pennant. I built the team to be too deep to be vulnerable to even clusters of injuries--losing all of those players who top the AL lists (Cobb, Heilmann, Ruth, Vance, Luque, Grove, Fizsimmons) would force the Yankees to bring in their backups, but those are no slouches: Cy Williams, Oscar Charleston, Lefty O'Doul (or maybe move Terry to the outfield and reinstate Pipp at 1B?) in the outfield. The pitchers would be harder to replace, but in this scenario Pennock is available, Faber would stay in the rotation, Lefty Brown and Bullet Rogan would join the rotation and maybe Diaz would be brought up from Toronto. That team might not win the pennant, but they might, especially since all of those absent Yankees wouldn't be out winning games for other teams. 

Instead, I think these fans should be hoping for down seasons from the Yankees starters--maybe 10-20% worse than usual. Not so bad they get benched, but bad enough that they affect outcomes. The Yankees had something like 50 WAR from their batters and 25 or so from their pitchers. Take that down by 15% and it's about 11 wins. That would put them closer to 100 wins than 115. Those wins have to go somewhere, so if the Packers pick up a few...  

But no, really, while the games have to be played I think it certainly _looks_ like anything other than a Yankees pennant would have to be considered a _massive_ upset. 

The National League, on the other hand, is much more balanced and we could have a very good pennant race in store.  The ABF sees the New York Giants winning the pennant (and setting up a rematch of the iconic 1923 World Series with the Yankees hoping to avenge that loss), but only puts them 3 games ahead of the defending NL champion Blues, with the Orioles and Cardinals tied for third only one further game back. The Giants look to be getting it done with their pitching (and, of course, having Torriente doesn't hurt), while the Blues and particularly the Cardinals are more batting-heavy (while Buffalo maintains a very good pitching staff). 

On paper (or on screen, I guess), St. Louis actually looks to have the better teams--Hornsby is the best player in the world according to ABF, with Joe Harris at #5 in the NL and newly-acquired Tris Speaker as #9 in the NL. They also place two pitchers in the NL top 10: Waite Hoyt as #1 and Juan Padron at #8.  The Orioles also place well, perhaps as well as the Cardinals: Al Simmons, Mickey Cochrane, and Kiki Cuyler are all also in the NL top 10 for batters, and Dutch Leonard and Jakie May are #2 and #3 pitchers in the NL. The Giants by contrast don't place any batters in the NL top 10 but do have a couple of pitchers that make the grade.

Beyond MLB, the minor leagues have their opening days through April and May. I had to put together some custom schedules because of the (frankly silly) way I'm grouping the leagues--the AA level has the 10-team Western League, 8-team Southern League, and 6-team Texas League all together, so I had to make the SL and TL as divisions in a meta-league with no interdivisional play.  Meanwhile, at the AAA level, I have an 8-team International League and a 6-team American Association as subleagues, but since they have different numbers of teams I had to do a custom schedule for them, too. But in theory I did that and it all works. 

Outside the US system, the Big Six League is already underway and has played 3-4 games. Mexico, Nicaragua, and France begin play in May, the Dutch and Australian leagues start in June, the Venezuelans begin in September, and the Filipinos in November. The latter will need to work around the World's Fair, which will also be in November.  The Dominican and Cuban Winter Leagues should start in December. Finally, the Sesquicentennial Tour will set its rosters soon, with their travels starting in May...